In mid-March ALP support is 50.5% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 49.5% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the election would be too close to call.
Primary support for the L-NP is 40% (down 3%) with ALP at 33% (up 3.5%). Support for the Greens is up 1% to 14%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4% (down 1%), 18% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (unchanged), Palmer United Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others are at 8% (unchanged).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly this week – up 1.5pts to 103.5 with 43% (up 1.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, March 12/13 & 19/20, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,948 Australian electors.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are favouring the ALP. Men: L-NP 52% (down 3%) cf. ALP 48% (up 3%); Women: ALP 52.5% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 3.5%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%). However, the L-NP leads with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%).
Analysis by States
The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in three Australian States with three favouring the ALP. The LNP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%, Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48% and New South Wales: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% and the ALP leads in South Australia: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%, Victoria: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Tasmania: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%.
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP 50.5% (up 3.5%) now just in front of the L-NP 49.5% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after a chaotic week in which the Coalition Government with the help of the Greens forced contentious electoral changes through the Senate against the wishes of the ALP and the cross-benchers who face losing their seats under the new system.
“Following on from last week’s Senate voting reform, Turnbull today turned up the heat on the Senate cross-benchers by deciding to recall Parliament in four weeks’ time to debate the reintroduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC).
“Turnbull has explicitly told the Senate cross-benchers to either pass the Bill restoring the ABCC or face a Double Dissolution Election on Saturday July 2. To facilitate the potential calling of a Double Dissolution Election – which would have to be done by Wednesday May 11, Turnbull has also brought forward this year’s Federal Budget to the first Tuesday in May – a week earlier.
“Although the restoration of the ABCC is being used as a potential trigger to call an early election, the election will be fought on economic issues and taxation.”
And my own chart of first term PMs:
Turnbull tracking Gillard and Abbott into the Witch’s Ditch. The polity do not want Turnbull the politician, they want Turnbull the statesman, and all he is giving them is the former.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
