Double dissolution dead?

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From Fairfax:

Malcolm Turnbull’s options for an early double-dissolution election on July 2 have narrowed as an unmanageable Senate blocks even the modest goal of having government legislation defeated.

…known as the Australian Building and Construction Commission Bill, seeks to re-establish the Howard-era building unions watchdog.

But it has no chance of majority support in the Senate, and now apparently, few prospects of even being debated as the scheduled sitting days run out ahead of the 2016 budget.

The government might want to arrange extra Senate sitting days but cannot compel the upper house, and neither can it enforce what is discussed in the chamber when it is sitting.

The stand-off reached a climax on Tuesday as Opposition leader Bill Shorten took to the National Press Club to outline his approach to the election, revealing Labor will not help it bring the May 10 budget forward by a week to May 3, in order to allow sufficient time after it is tabled to vote through money bills to keep the government running, and to facilitate the ABCC debate.

Amid farcical scenes in the Senate, the government defeated an attempt by the Australian Motoring Party’s Ricky Muir to bring the ABCC bill on immediately, because that would have meant delaying debate on the Senate voting reforms.

And the Greens were forced to deny another provocation, this time from the Liberal Democratic Party’s David Leyonhjelm, who tried to force consideration of the Greens’ same-sex marriage reform.

What did the Government expect? That the tiddlers would go gentle into that good night? But wait, there’s more, also from Fairfax:

Threats by Labor and the Greens to thwart an early budget and double-dissolution election by refusing to allow the Senate to sit a week early could be circumvented by the government.

To hold a July 2 double-dissolution election, the government is considering bringing the budget forward a week to May 3, and having the House of Representatives sit that week, even if the Senate refuses to budge from its next scheduled sitting of May 10.

This would enable the government to hand down its budget and pass the supply bills through the lower house.

When the Senate resumed on May 10 it would be presented with the supply bills, which would pass. On the same day, the government could try to have the Senate reconsider legislation to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission, which it wants to use as a double-dissolution trigger.

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Self-evidently the longer we have to debate policy the better. Though any benefit to Labor is likely to be offset by a deteriorating economy in the second half making for a more ripe environment to sow Coalition fear.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.