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Want to know how to call a top in Aussie dollar? When the biggest bulls at the biggest banks say the biggest fool amongst central banks is going to do nothing about it. Chief economist at the CBA Michael Blythe reckons the following, via Forexlive:
- Says the RBA is on hold, citing economic growth prospects remaining strong
- RBA is generally positive on domestic growth … “the non-mining economy strengthened in 2015 and prospects for continued growth are reasonable”
- The RBA was surprised at the pace of economic growth at the end of 2015
- The RBA have progressively backed away from projections showing a rising unemployment rate
- Says even if the AUD were to impact on the growth outlook, the RBA would be reluctant to take on major central banks by using policy to weaken the dollar
- “The outcomes achieved by smaller central banks have proved disappointing” … “The NZD, for example, is yet to retest 2015 lows despite three rate cuts from the RBNZ and expectations of more to come”
- Says the RBA view the AUD rise as temporary
Chris Weston at IG has the forecasts:
CBA seemingly start the ball rolling (given consensus is 71c), upping AUD/USD forecast for yr-end to 78c (from 70c), 80c by 2017 (72.5c) #fx
— Chris Weston (@ChrisWeston_IG) March 30, 2016
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