Here is why.
Abbott and Hockey had a vision
It was the wrong vision but it still had internal logic. Hockey’s “End of Entitlement” thesis was clearly articulated. It led to an application of these values in Budget policy. It was horribly misapplied, yes, did not understand the economy under management and the polity rejected it, but it was transparent.
Turnbull and Morrison have no vision. We have no idea what either of them stand for and there is no discernible plan for the economy beyond doing absolutely nothing as fast as possible.
Abbott and Hockey had a policy process
From the moment they were elected Abbott and Hockey began to soften up the polity for their austerity agenda (in fact, long before it). Yes they used political tricks with numbers and blamed Labor far too much, but they were still clear about their intentions and had policies to match. They were wrong but the process was good.
Turnbull and Morrison have zero policy process. Devoid of values, their agenda flops around with the latest interest. They have no research, float thought bubbles, think through nothing, put forward ideas and backtrack in a matter of hours, posturing this way and that in search of a cause.
Abbott and Hockey were suspicious of rent-seeking bureaucrats
Abbott and Hockey swept into Treasury with the very admirable goal of hammering some realism into its forecasting machinery, which had been delusionally bullish for years. That legacy is still embedded in the Budget with what are at last at least semi-believable commodity price forecasts.
Turnbull and Morrison have swallowed rent-seeking bureaucrat’s line hook, line and sinker. The RBA and Treasury, whose job it is to defend sensible economic thought like the need for reform, instead argue against it to defend their bubble-like business cycle and Turnbull and Morrison cover their arses.
Abbott and Hockey left a legacy of important structural reform
It was a looong way from perfect but Hockey especially can look back with some pride at good structural reforms. It was Hockey that framed the intellectual debate around the need for a “Son of Wallis” inquiry. It was he that picked the personnel that delivered an excellent result, despite great skepticism from peeps like me. The Murray Inquiry will appear prescient in the rear vision mirror of history. The second top-shelf policy effort was the foreign investment rules renovation. The push to enforce FIRB rules around illegal Chinese property buying was long overdue and excellent policy-making. It will likely stand the test of time now that it is in the hands of ATO and is a money making regime. Just as importantly it shifted the normatives around giving houses to foreign criminals to the detriment of local youth, making it much more difficult for Labor especially to loosen them again. The reform of significant investor visas was also excellent.
Turnbull and Morrison not only do not have a reform agenda of any kind, they are actively aiming to kill off permanently the most important single reform needed for the future prosperity of Australia. If Turnbull and Morrison succeed in being re-elected via a negative gearing fear campaign they will have guaranteed that no leader will ever again challenge it or anything else that might impact house prices. They will have condemned the Australian economy to a one way path to bubble destruction.
Abbott and Hockey were Abbott and Hockey
Don’t get me wrong, Abbott and Hockey were dreadful. They misread the economy, had terrible tin-ears, cut off all sort of much needed reforms, were horribly political and gaffe prone, and those blunders are in part what led to greater policy timidity today. But they were Abbott and Hockey, transparent political hacks with a closed ideology, and the nation could take or leave them.
Turnbull and Morrison are instead wolves in sheep’s clothing. They push the worst parts of the Abbott and Hockey economic agenda while dressing it up in fine liberal clothing. As such we have no idea what they stand for as people or politicians. The values offered at their ascension are now a bowel-shaking joke:
“Ultimately, the prime minister has not been capable of providing the economic leadership our nation needs… We need a different style of leadership. We need a style of leadership that… respects the people’s intelligence, that explains these complex issues and then sets out a course of action that we believe we should take… We need to respect the intelligence of the Australian people. We need to restore traditional cabinet government [and] put an end to policy on the run and captain’s calls”.
– Malcolm Turnbull, launching his leadership challenge, 14 September 2015.
Just six months later they’ve degenerated into a ribald fear campaign that craps all over the polity’s intelligence.
Conclusion
Some will say that Turnbull and Morrison are hamstrung by the Abbott and Hockey legacy, especially the former as he still sits on the backbench, from the AFR today:
Coalition MPs are growing increasingly fearful that former prime minister Tony Abbott could blow up the government’s election prospects in his bid to get back at Malcolm Turnbull and others who helped depose him.
…The issue featured heavily during conversations on Wednesday night at a Liberal Party gala event in Parliament House to mark the 20th anniversary of the election of the Howard government.
One Liberal, who did not wish to be identified, prevailed upon a party elder during the function to counsel Mr Abbott, but was told “he’s not listening to anyone”.
…Mr Abbott’s interventions this week – on tax cuts and the submarine contract – have clouded the government’s attempts to take on Labor over tax policy. It has also frustrated the Liberal Party machine, which is trying to establish election themes. Mr Turnbull has been trying to run a line that Labor’s tax policies pose a threat to the economy transitioning away from the mining boom.
This is rubbish. Turnbull and Morrison don’t need to placate the loon pond, nor do they need to shelve quality policy. They simple need to explain their plan to the nation and move forward. Preventing all forms of reform and running ribald fear campaigns is not “transitioning away from the mining boom”.
Perhaps Turnbull and Morrison think that they’ll manage through and then make changes when re-elected but that doesn’t wash. The time for a reform plan is now. The platform is burning. Labor has sensed it.
If Turnbull and Morrison are Abbott and Hockey then Abbott and Hockey are preferable.
