In early February L-NP support fell 2.5% to 52.5% cf. ALP up 2.5% to 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would still win.
Primary support for the L-NP is 43.5% (unchanged) with ALP at 29% (up 1%). Support for the Greens is up 1% to 16%, Nick Xenophon Team 1% (down 1%; 15% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 1.5%), Palmer United Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9.5% (up 0.5%).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged this week – down 0.5pts to 112.5 with 47.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 35% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 30/31 & February 6/7, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,072 Australian electors.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are now evenly divided. Men: L-NP 55% (down 4.5%) cf. ALP 45% (up 4.5%); Women: L-NP 50% (unchanged) cf. ALP 50% (unchanged).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 35 – 18-24yr olds (ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%). However, the L-NP leads with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 61% cf. ALP 39%).
Analysis by States
The L-NP and ALP now each have two-party preferred lead in three Australian States. The L-NP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, Queensland: LNP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5% and New South Wales: L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46% while the ALP leads in Victoria: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and Tasmania: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%.
And my own chart of first term PMs:
Pretty poor given the competition. Not so repulsive as Tony Abbot but tracking nicely with Ms Gillard. Hoocoodanode that waffling ideas and inaction in a crisis could prove harmful?
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
