Coalition sinks with Turnbull bubble pop

From Roy Morgan:

6665-vote-2pp

In early February L-NP support fell 2.5% to 52.5% cf. ALP up 2.5% to 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would still win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 43.5% (unchanged) with ALP at 29% (up 1%). Support for the Greens is up 1% to 16%, Nick Xenophon Team 1% (down 1%; 15% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 1.5%), Palmer United Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9.5% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged this week – down 0.5pts to 112.5 with 47.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 35% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 30/31 & February 6/7, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,072 Australian electors.

6665-gcr

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are now evenly divided.  Men: L-NP 55% (down 4.5%) cf. ALP 45% (up 4.5%); Women: L-NP 50% (unchanged) cf. ALP 50% (unchanged).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 35 – 18-24yr olds (ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%). However, the L-NP leads with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 61% cf. ALP 39%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP and ALP now each have two-party preferred lead in three Australian States. The L-NP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, Queensland: LNP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5% and New South Wales: L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46% while the ALP leads in Victoria: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and Tasmania: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%.

And my own chart of first term PMs:

Capture

Pretty poor given the competition. Not so repulsive as Tony Abbot but tracking nicely with Ms Gillard. Hoocoodanode that waffling ideas and inaction in a crisis could prove harmful?

David Llewellyn-Smith
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