Reuters has released its calculations for January China house prices and the halting and narrow recovery continues up 0.4% on the month:
And 2.5% on the year:
With 39 out of 70 cities now seeing new house price rises:
You can see in the last chart just unusual this cycle is. Tier one cities continue to dominate price rises:
- Shanghai January new home prices rose 2.2% mom and 17.5% yoy and
- Beijing January new home prices rose 1% mom and 10.3% yoy
In fact China now has a rather Australian market of a raging bubble in top tiers and massive oversupply in lower leading to an overall downdraft in construction given 75% is in lower tiers.
And now we get this from Investing in Chinese Stocks:
The current rise in home prices is among the biggest gains in history, exceeding most of the years when the government became very concerned about an overheating market. Capital is flowing overseas, but within China, where can people hide from negative interest rates on deposits, depreciating currency, falling stocks and general economic malaise?
Expected until mid-2016, housing prices in Beijing, Nanjing, Suzhou, Guangzhou several hotspots of the city, compared to the current round of housing prices start in the first quarter of 2015, will rise 40 to 60%.
Such a large increase, will equal or surpass 2013, 2010, 2009, 2007, 2005 gains. In the above-mentioned rate fever year, in most cases it will be the introduction of shrinkage policies to curb housing prices. Today, in most second-tier cities and almost all four-tier cities housing prices steady or Yindie background, the central commitment to inventory conditions, relax under the premise of frequent policy, policy-tier cities in the country and local You will tighten it?
I believe that: After the first-tier cities housing prices skyrocketing, will appear Alert local policies!
Governments are either starting to tighten restrictions, increasing supply, or planning to:
First, the recent rumors: start from March 1, Shenzhen is likely to implement the new policy, non-deep household buyers required to pay social security from one year to three years. I believe that specific point in time is difficult to say, but Shenzhen tighten restriction, probability large. Guards Shenzhen housing prices skyrocketing, there is no reason the government does not “pour cold water.” Before the Spring Festival, Shenzhen mayor said: as the price stability in a reasonable range, the municipal government on the one hand to increase the personnel housing and protection of housing construction, on the one hand to study the regulation policies to stabilize prices. And in many policies, the current restriction Shenzhen most relaxed, tightened some reasonable.
Second, recently, “the General Office of Shanghai Municipal Government Urban Planning and Land Resources Bureau four departments on the implementation of further optimization of the city and the views of the land and housing supply structure notice” that Shanghai will be to optimize the structure of housing supply, increase small sets type of housing supply ratio, not less than 70% of the central city, suburban, not less than 60%
One first-tier city isn’t tightening, it’s secretly easing.
Third, Guangzhou secretly tax cuts. February 24, news reports: In some districts include Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, Tianhe and Haizhu District, including, as long as no room, even the first suite of standard deed tax. The February 19, three ministries “on the adjustment of the real estate transaction deed link business tax incentives notice” clearly states: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen temporarily embodiment of the present notice first and second deed tax incentives The second business tax incentives. This means that the Guangzhou politely refused national policies. By 2015, the Guangzhou property market is weak, not how the basic price rise, compared to a lot of difference brothers Shenzhen city, easing can be understood. Some time ago, there was news that Guangzhou will relax the restriction. No movement restriction, there is the action of the tax.
iFeng: 第107期：一线城市房价暴涨与政策异动
