Speculators retreat from Sydney property

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By Leith van Onselen

Sydney’s speculator frenzy continues to fizzle-out, with today’s Lending Finance data for November, released by the ABS, revealing that the share of loans going to New South Wales investors registered their fifth consecutive monthly decline; with the annual value of investor mortgages also continuing to fall.

As shown below, the annual value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) fell for the second consecutive month, although Victoria (read Melbourne) – the second hottest market – managed to bounce back following two consecutive monthly declines:

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According to the ABS, investor finance commitments in New South Wales in November were 11.8% lower than November 2014.

As at November 2015, investors accounted for a still-staggering 57.3% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales (Sydney), although this was down significantly from the record 60.3% share posted in June 2015. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) share of investor mortgages also fell to 48.2% in November, down from July’s 50.5% peak:

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Putting the two charts together for New South Wales (Sydney) yields the following beast:

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Whereas Victoria (Melbourne) is not much better:

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Clearly, the massive investor bubble that has driven Sydney’s housing market is now cooked, with APRA’s and the banks’ investor loan caps biting. And Melbourne is not far behind.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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