Courtesy of Fairfax:
JPMorgan chief economist Stephen Walters:
On balance the numbers were pretty solid. The relief today is that we didn’t get a big unwind of the gains we’ve seen in the last two months. Across the whole labour force there’s been an increase in hours worked it means we’ve entered the year in pretty solid footing in the labour market. Whenever the Australian dollar is below 0.70 cents the RBA is probably pretty content to let the currency work for them rather than lowering interest rates.”
RBC Capital Markets strategist Michael Turner:
A modest correction from two elevated readings and unemployment did not tick higher. The trend looks to have improved in the second half of the year. For the RBA, the fact the job market is improving is very important to them. So net-net, between that and what is happening offshore, I don’t think there will be a hugely dovish tone (at the RBA’s next meeting) in February. We still expect two interest rate cuts this year.
NAB global head of research in global markets Peter Jolly:
Undoubtedly this December print was very good. I think it’s too good to believe but it is consistent with an improvement in the labour market in 2015. The big point to make is, yes the labour market has improved, the economy is on a more sure footing. We created jobs through 2015, a range of indicators backed that up. By industry I think we are seeing some shedding and slowdown in things like manufacturing and mining, but we’re seeing some really strong offsets in health care and other services sectors. So the economy is on more sure footing at the end of 2015 than it was at the end of 2014.
TD Securities chief Asia-Pacifi macro strategist Annette Beacher:
The highlight in our view is three consecutive decent increases in full-time employment, usually associated with a stronger economy. Of the near-200k jobs added in the second half of 2015, around 120k were full-time. This is good news as part-time employment has been doing the heavy lifting for years now.
CBA chief economist Michael Blythe
The jobs data will be well received by the RBA. The labour market has always been a critical indicator for RBA deliberations and today’s data and the improvement over the past six months is something we think will keep them sitting on the sidelines over 2016. It was a decent set of numbers. After the recent strength, a pullback would have been expected. It’s a pretty good sign for the economy overall.
Capital Economics chief Australia economist Paul Dales:
The recent improvement in Australia’s labour market was maintained in December, which should go some way to relieving the current downward pressure on equity prices and the dollar. The survey data are consistent with annual employment growth of just above 2.0 per cent, so employment will probably rise by an average of 25,000 per month from here. That would be enough to keep the unemployment rate stable, if not reduce it a bit further.
ANZ economist Justin Fabo:
These numbers should be viewed positively. Both employment and the unemployment rate beat expectations. While sample rotation has boosted jobs growth in recent months, and may again in January, labour market trends remain positive. Job ads point to employment growth remaining relatively solid over the next 3-6 months. The RBA is on hold for some time. The focus for monetary policy should be on the 12-18 month outlook and that’s where we continue to see some challenges from the shaky global backdrop and a loss of growth momentum in housing and from the lower AUD.
All good in the rear vision mirror.