Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks
The People’s Daily is out with the official word:
In USD, the world’s per capita GDP has more than ten thousand US dollars. Of course, many low-income countries are “being average”. The high per capita income from the ceiling of the $ GDP11000 still lags far behind, thus “middle income trap” risk still exists. Success beyond this trap, is China’s “Thirteen Five” period of development final exam, is building a moderately prosperous society must pass through one.
…From the direct cause of the need to promote economic growth, “Troika car analysis. ” 2011 to 2013, consumption, exports to our economic growth rate continued to decline, particularly by the international financial crisis affecting the world economic downturn, the export contribution rate even dropped to negative, the contribution rate is only increasing investment . 2014 and the first quarter of 2015 the situation has improved, consumption, export growth and the contribution rate has increased, but investment alone big situation has not fundamentally changed. Coupled with the law of diminishing marginal investment returns play a role, the role of investment-led economic growth continued to decline, resulting in downward pressure on the economy continue to grow.
The main underlying causes are the following: First, the transformation of the mode of economic development is lagging behind. Mainly rely on investment-led economic growth, investment mainly for the “iron-based”, resulting in steel , crude steel, cement and other in the last 30 years to achieve a high-speed growth of two to three times, resulting in extensive epitaxial expanded reproduction unsustainable development enhancements .
Second, the economic structural imbalances. Heroes of GDP and investment-driven economic development, most likely to lead the project, the investment battle, repeated introduction, redundant construction, structural imbalances, excess capacity causing economic decline. Third, the demographic dividend attenuation, labor costs increased. Since reform and opening, the new GDP, about 1 / 4-1 / 3 is the creation of new work, thanks to changes in population age structure demographic dividend “golden age” offer. 2010, 15-64 working age population accounted for 74.5 percent of the peak, the dependency ratio fell to 34.2% of the lowest value.
But crossing the inflection point, an opposite trend appears, the proportion of working age population decline, the dependency ratio rises. In this context, economic growth will naturally decrease. Fourth, the shortage of tightening resource bottleneck, approaching the upper limit of the ecological environment. A direct consequence of the extensive development mode, consume a lot of natural resources, scarcity intensified rapidly increasing dependence on foreign energy resources, ecological carrying capacity overwhelmed.
One of the plans is to improve “population quality.”
ed to mention that, in the working-age population is supplied across the Lewis turning point, the investment plus unlimited supply of labor after the end of the development model, to improve the population quality, achieved by conversion into the demographic dividend bonus to personnel in a prominent position, is to improve labor productivity and economic efficiency.
I read that as being as eugenic as it sounds. China is spending a lot of money on genomic research and the hunt for genes that influence intelligence.
iFeng: 人民日报：中等收入陷阱风险仍存 经济减速合乎规律