Everything is awesome! Can’t keep consumer confidence down, and as other commenters have noted, the shopping malls are full, cafes are bursting. Therefore = strong economy!
That was sarcasm by the way.
Anyway, here’s ANZ/Roy Morgan’s weekly consumer confidence print, which rose in the week following the Christmas Consumer Orgy:
- Consumer confidence rose 0.8% in the week ending 3 January. This reverses the fall seen in the last survey conducted in mid-December, leaving confidence above its long run average (+3.2%).
- Consumers’ views towards their current finances rose a solid 6.4% last week, leaving the subindex at its strongest level in the history of the weekly survey (started Oct- 08).
- This was somewhat offset by consumers’ views towards their financial situation in the next 12 months, which fell 1.4%.
More from Warren Hogan:
Australian consumer confidence remains in a gradual uptrend, evident since the change of political leadership at the federal level in September last year and is starting 2016 a few percentage points above its long-run average.
While consumers are generally optimistic in January due to the holiday season, it is a good sign for the economy that consumers are particularly upbeat about their current financial situation. The 6.4% rise in the sub-index asking consumers about their current financial position is a new post-GFC high. This index is a reasonable indicator of consumer spending suggesting a strong Christmas and holiday spending period is underway.
Stronger employment conditions and the falling petrol price appear to be the major factors driving consumer optimism.
Indeed – thank Dog below for lower petrol prices:
But some caution in the tail:
(indexes) mostly remain below their long-term average levels. Next week’s ANZ job ads will provide further guidance on current employment conditions and the likely direction of consumer confidence over the remainder of the summer.
And house prices of course. The other great engine apart from buying stuff.