US jobs firm, rate hike imminent

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Friday night’s US jobs report was solid, from the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction, professional and technical services, and health care. Mining and information lost jobs.

…The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +137,000 to +145,000, and the change from October was revised from +271,000 to +298,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 35,000 more than previously reported.

…In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $25.25, following a 9-cent gain in October. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent.

Here are the charts from Calculated Risk. Solid headline:

PayrollNov2015
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Firm year on year growth:

EmployYoYNov2015

Falling unemployment rate:

UnemployNov2015

Not so good analytics:

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EmployPopNov2015
EmployPop2554Nov2015 Plenty of shadow slack: Unemploy26Nov2015 PartTimeNov2015

Slow public recovery:

StateLocalNov2015

Slow wage rises:

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WagesNov2015

Lock in your December rate hike. At the current rate, I’d expect at least two more next year depending upon how quickly the dollar rises and emerging markets fall.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.