The investor mortgage bubble is bursting

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By Leith van Onselen

Today’s housing finance data for October, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), posted a small fall in owner-occupied finance commitments, with investor finance commitments crashing.

According to the ABS, total owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% over the month to be up by 4.1% over the year (see below charts).

ScreenHunter_10837 Dec. 09 11.34 ScreenHunter_10838 Dec. 09 11.35
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By comparison, the value of investor finance commitments tanked by 6.1% in October and were down by 9.2% over the year (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_10840 Dec. 09 11.45

The annual share of total loans going to investors (excluding refinancings) also fell to 50.3% in October from 51.5% in July:

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ScreenHunter_10841 Dec. 09 11.47

Meanwhile, first home buyer (FHB) owner-occupied demand was weak in October at just 15.1% of total owner-occupied finance commitments. They also fell by 2.8% in October and by 9.1% over the year (see below charts).

ScreenHunter_10842 Dec. 09 11.49 ScreenHunter_10843 Dec. 09 11.50
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Meanwhile, the average loan size rose by 0.8% in October and was up 13.8% over the year, and remains in a strong uptrend on a 3-month moving average basis:

ScreenHunter_10839 Dec. 09 11.38

Finally, the below chart shows that the pick-up in owner-occupied housing demand is only partly offsetting the sharp fall in investor demand:

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ScreenHunter_10844 Dec. 09 11.52

Looks like the great Australian investor bubble is bursting.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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