Income shock spreads to NZ

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By Leith van Onselen

Statistics New Zealand has just released national accounts figures for the September quarter of 2015, with Gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 0.9% over the quarter to be up 2.9% year-on-year. The result followed a revised 0.3% rise in the June 2015 quarter.

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The September quarter increase in GDP was driven by growth in the service industries and manufacturing, with the main movements being:

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  • manufacturing was up 2.8 percent, due to food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing
  • business services was up 2.0 percent, due to legal and accounting services
  • construction was down 2.9 percent, due to heavy and civil construction
  • retail trade was up 1.6 percent, due to motor vehicle and parts retailing, furniture, electrical, and hardware retailing, and food and beverage services
  • transport was up 2.6 percent, due to road transport, transport support services, and air transport.
  • wholesale trade was up 2.2 percent, due to basic material, grocery and liquor, and other goods wholesaling.

Capital investment also jumped by 2.7%, driven by transport equipment:

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However, real gross national disposable income (RGNDI), which measures the real purchasing power of New Zealand’s disposable income, rose by only 0.3% over the quarter and by 1.4% over the year due to the falling terms-of-trade (dairy prices):

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Given New Zealand’s population grew by 2.0% in the year to September 2015, this means that RGNDI actually fell on a per capita basis.

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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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