The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research consumer confidence index rose by 1.8 points in the week ended 1 November to be tracking above its long-run average of around 113 points (see next chart).
The largest contributor to the increase in confidence over the past two weeks has been the ‘time to buy index’, which is now at +30% (up 7% over the last fortnight). Now 46% (up 2ppts in a fortnight) say it is a ‘good time to buy’ a major household item compared to 16% (down 5ppts) saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ a major household item. The survey’s economic conditions over the next year sub-index also jumped 5.1% last week.
According to ANZ, the rise of Malcolm Turnbull to Prime Minister has done wonders for consumer confidence, with the 4-week moving average of confidence at the highest level seen since February 2014 (see next chart).
The below chart plots the most recent Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index against the latest ANZ-RM Consumer Confidence index:
We’ll have to wait to see whether the recent bounce in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Research index translates across to the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute index, which remains depressed.
