From Roy Morgan:
In early November L-NP support is 56.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 43.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.
Primary support for the L-NP rose 0.5% to 47% and ALP support rose 1% to 28.5%.
Support for the Greens fell to 14.5% (down 1%) while Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 1% (up 0.5%), while Independents/ Others are at 8% (down 0.5%).
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, October 24/25, 31 & November 1, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,262 Australian electors.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged this week at 112 with 48% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ (the highest for this indicator for two years since mid-November 2013) and 36% (up 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 58.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 41.5% (up1.5%); Women: L-NP 54% (up 2%) cf. ALP 46% (down 2%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem is convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds: ALP 59% cf. L- NP 41% and leads the L-NP amongst 25-34yr olds: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%. However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 65% cf. ALP 35%.
Analysis by States
The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: L-NP 63% cf. ALP 37%, Queensland: LNP 59% cf. ALP 41%, New South Wales: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, Western Australia: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, South Australia: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%, and Victoria: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.
Mark the Ballot has betting markets showing PMT at unbackable odds:
|House||Coalition Odds ($)||Labor Odds ($)||Coalition Win Probability (%)|
My own chart of first term PMs shows PMT tracking solidly without tearing the roof off:
And there is an implicit warning in Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence ratings which has jumped but remains below the rebound that Tony Abbott enjoyed at his election:
Hard to see PMT losing but then he hasn’t done anything yet either.
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