Roy Morgan: Turnbull tramples Labor

From Roy Morgan:

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In early November L-NP support is 56.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 43.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP rose 0.5% to 47% and ALP support rose 1% to 28.5%.

Support for the Greens fell to 14.5% (down 1%) while Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 1% (up 0.5%), while Independents/ Others are at 8% (down 0.5%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, October 24/25, 31 & November 1, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,262 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged this week at 112 with 48% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ (the highest for this indicator for two years since mid-November 2013) and 36% (up 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 58.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 41.5% (up1.5%); Women: L-NP 54% (up 2%) cf. ALP 46% (down 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem is convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds: ALP 59% cf. L- NP 41% and leads the L-NP amongst 25-34yr olds: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%. However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 65% cf. ALP 35%.

Analysis by States

The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: L-NP 63% cf. ALP 37%, Queensland: LNP 59% cf. ALP 41%, New South Wales: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, Western Australia: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%,  South Australia: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%, and Victoria: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.

Mark the Ballot has betting markets showing PMT at unbackable odds:

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-10-30 Betfair 1.13 6.51 85.209424
2015-10-30 CrownBet 1.13 6.00 84.151473
2015-10-30 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-10-30 Luxbet 1.13 5.50 82.956259
2015-10-30 Sportsbet 1.15 5.50 82.706767
2015-10-30 TABtouch 1.14 5.50 82.831325
2015-10-30 William Hill 1.13 6.00 84.151473

My own chart of first term PMs shows PMT tracking solidly without tearing the roof off:

8

And there is an implicit warning in Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence ratings which has jumped but remains below the rebound that Tony Abbott enjoyed at his election:

6536-gcr

Hard to see PMT losing but then he hasn’t done anything yet either.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

      • Welcome to Paradise – Australia is no bull, fair dinkum the best place to ride out the real wars and global economic storms that are hitting the fan, as I write. Carn Ozzzie!

  1. Labor is hopeless. Aside from ‘free money for union workers’, there is no policy difference between them and the LNP. I can understand people voting LNP if they have money, want more money, and like concentration camps. Why in hell would anyone vote Labor? Marginally less shitty concentration camps? That’s all they’ve got.

    Bring on the depression.

    • There is no difference other than marketing. Union rorting for large tax farming infrastructure is critical to the cronyism in the ownership.

      • The ALP is in all sorts against the Libs, and strategically they need to worry more about the Greens long term who are eating away at ALP voter base as the country continues to deunionize and move away from blue collar work. With Australia following the global trend of moving towards higher density urban population, the much decried inner city latte sipping lefty will become a much bigger demographic proportionally and the Greens are a natural fit.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Yes Kenszo

        The ALP has for too long taken the support of the “left” for granted whilst desperately trying to appeal to more centrist voters. The Greens are a real long term threat to them.
        As a life long Labor supporter, I’m starting to Pay much attention to them (The Greens), esp after turfing Christine Milne and I like a lot of what i’m hearing from the likes of Di Natale and Ludam, if they can move the party a little bit away from the smelly, tree hugging, feral environmental fundamentalist amongst their ranks, then Labor is in big trouble.

      • It is a triumph of marketing that the ALP can even swing a vote. The unions are corrupt to the core and the labor party is just the liberal party with a property corruption story.

        The Greens under Di Natale should own the labor party.

      • I look forward to a day the Greens introduce a “money spending license” so that clowns will no longer be allowed to spend their money that can potentially inflate a bubble, any bubble.

        The Greens are the champions of a nanny state, aren’t they? Oh wait, didn’t the Greens oppose the cashless welfare cards? Damn, they will need to fix their internal schizophrenia first, or nobody will know what they stand for.

  2. Malcolm is popular because he did nothing yet, once his ultra neo-liberal policies (media deregulation, abolition of penalty rates, GST increase, workchoice, …) start coming out people will change their mind. The biggest problem is that Labor is not different, just the other side of the same thing. Welcome to two party system – a mirage of democracy

    • Agreed. He hasn’t actually done anything yet.

      People seem to have forgotten the concept of a honeymoon period.

    • Which is why Malcolm won’t be introducing ultra neo-liberal policies. A few more polls like this, and he’ll have the authority to do whatever the hell he wants. Above all coalition MPs don’t want to lose their seats, which was looking a dead certainty under Abbott and the loon pond. It won’t matter how unpalatable the right-wing find Turnbull, if he has the LNP in a winning position, they’ll shut up.

      • Agree, Mal is the only man who can increase the GST – don’t like it, but it has to happen to pay for the demographic Armageddon coming our way in a few short years. Lower income tax and increase consumption tax – saves the planet at the same time! I’m into real grass not the plastic stuff!

      • Yeah? Can they get that GST increase if they’re leaving negative gearing, super rorts and the Singapore sling in place?

        What am I saying, Labor premiers will line up for the cash!

        Voters is stupid.

      • Which is why Malcolm won’t be introducing ultra neo-liberal policies.

        Maybe, but he won’t be getting rid of any either.

      • increasing heavily regressive tax (GST) to pay for demographic Armageddon benefiting mostly wealthy elderly Australians is morally the worst thing we can do.

        We could easily avoid Armageddon by introducing small wealth tax that affects people who are going to benefit from that extra money. Increase in GST is just a continuation of rent seeking policies of the past.

      • people, good or bad don’t matter – the system is there and it does what the ruling class wants – politicians (including Malcolm) are just puppets

      • Let’s see. As others have said, he hasn’t done much yet. Suspend judgment, give them a chance. This is a new government. Cynicism is not constructive. “Any Jackass can kick down a barn but it takes a skilled carpenter to build one”

      • I can’t remember the last time I saw someone “good” from the conservative side of politics.

        Turnbull has thus far only managed to remain above the “not bad” bar.

      • From you drS “not bad” is high praise indeed. I myself have severe reservations about the china FTA and think we have been sold out by both sides.

      • I doubt it will last. He will undoubtedly pursue something like a GST increase over fairer and more efficient tax reform.

        There’s only one side of politics pushing the China FTA, both Labor and Liberals are on it.

      • @ fitzroy

        don’t play this stupid he is a new guy give him a chance game
        he is not new in politics, he has long record of doing wrong things ( Bell Pay Pulp Mill, NBN, ABC, Australian Rain Corporation – media deregulation )

      • DrX. Not a game. He hasn’t had long enough in the job for a fair judgment. He has done good things too. The difference between a good PM and a bad one is that one gets more right than the other. Rudd did some very good things (apology) and some very bad things (relaxing rules dor foreign kleptocrats). The cross benchers have the PMs phone number- that is massive. It means that the parliament can arrive at legislation that all can live with and can change to respond to new circumstances.

      • The increase in the GST to 15% will raise the top marginal rate to 65%. The capital appreciation that follows the debasement of the currency for the purchase price of the harbour side mansion, or the block of Glencore shares retained offshore in a tax haven having pillaged Australia of its mineral wealth is zero tax. There is very little incentive to work at the high end of the spectrum.

      • “There is very little incentive to work at the high end of the spectrum.”

        As someone who is comfortably in the top tax bracket, I don’t find it at all a disincentive to work (and hence earn) more.

      • Each to their own AB – i found top marginal rates a huge disincentive to work harder. Busting my hump to get taxed at 50c in the dollar basically made me drop back to 3-4 days work. If you’ve got a 9-5 that pays the bucks great but if you’re working hard it’s pretty frustrating – especially watching capital just sail through on untaxed unrealised gains…

      • few comments:
        * someone making 500k plus is not making that money by hard work but rather by having other people working for him – classical Marxist exploitation
        * marginal top tax rate is not affected much by GST increase because people making plenty of money do not spend all the money, while poor people’s tax rate will go up 5% even on money they borrow to pay for food and petrol.
        * rich people were earning more in ’50s when top marginal tax rate was 75% in Australia and they do it now in countries with top rates almost 70% (Sweden)

      • If family homes are exempt, then it is better not to introduce any wealth tax. Why? Because what will happen then is that people will sell every other form of assets and bid up the residential property prices still higher.

      • @aj – I’m lucky in that I’d be doing what I do even if I wasn’t earning good money for it (and very lucky that people are willing to pay well for my work).

        I highly recommend reading “Drive” by Daniel Pink as it helped me understand that motivation can be (and very often is) provided by things other than just money. http://www.amazon.com/Drive-Surprising-Truth-About-Motivates/dp/1594484805

        I agree that it’s frustrating that capital gains are treated differently than income but there’s not much I can do about it and I’m confident that my income will be far more resilient than speculation over the next decade or so.

      • “someone making 500k plus is not making that money by hard work but rather by having other people working for him – classical Marxist exploitation”

        @doctorx – I don’t agree that it’s always exploiting others (my income is solely from my own work) but I do think that income often isn’t related to the level of effort, particularly for high income earners (I don’t often work more than 40hrs per week).

      • If family homes are exempt, then it is better not to introduce any wealth tax. Why? Because what will happen then is that people will sell every other form of assets and bid up the residential property prices still higher.

        Except you can only have one family home, so they’ll ditch all those “investment” properties.

      • “Except you can only have one family home, so they’ll ditch all those “investment” properties.”

        True, but one can buy up adjacent properties and join the title to form one gigantic PPOR that may occupy a whole block.

      • True, but one can buy up adjacent properties and join the title to form one gigantic PPOR that may occupy a whole block.

        And why do people not do this today ?

  3. He has changed the discourse in Parliament, the perception of the country offshore, and the possibility of compromise in legislative enablement, all crucial for a well functioning parliamentiary democracy.

    • You must be taking this piss. He’s done bugger all except dump a few unpopular policies like Knights and Dames.

      This looks very similar to the ascent of Rudd. All talk and little real action.

  4. @fitzroy you are correct. The policies have not changed but the way they are applied has. Labour has an insoluble problem. When the previous PM made a (very) wide range of controversial, and sometimes harmful decisions, the ‘small target’ approach of agree to everything was just too clever. So many people were looking for an opposition party, and only the Greens were to be found. Both Labour and the Country have had two years of a Labour that stood for nothing except not being Tony Abbott. Now there is a PM in the job, they have to develop strategies, but they also need a leader that has some street cred. A spokesperson (Shorten) that stood by and did nothing during the period of Australia’s worst PM, a PM that went further and further into the nutbag desert looking for something, anything that would be so outrageous he could ‘wedge’ Labour, will not recover. He spent two years being irrelevant – well Mission Accomplished.

  5. The PM will need at least six months to take control of his party and get it functioning. His downfall last time was his impatience and that is what allowed Abbott to lead the coalition. Turnbull strikes me as someone who rarely makes the same mistake twice so I think that we are being hasty to pass judgement. Personally, I find him to be the most intriguing PM as I don’t know what to expect. He isn’t a political hack and gives the impression that he can do big picture stuff, including the selling.

  6. So, uh, what has he done differently to Tony Abbott? Other than not make an arse of himself he’s done sweet FA other than elide past issues with slick language.

    I’m not fooled.

    • It’s hilarious, isn’t it?

      Everybody is projecting their hopes onto the bloke even though he has done bugger all.

      • It seems he may have put the grubby politics in the bin – the whole Utegate thing did seem to leave a lasting impression on him. If he has to get there like Tony then perhaps it not worth getting there.

        At the time, i remember thinking how could Turnbull be so totally stupid? – he’s been badly advised by the party hacks…

      • Silver tongue devil? Unlike Tony it appear Malcolm left the womb in a well cut suit.
        He looks sharp & sounds smooth. For many punters thats enough.

  7. Unless footage emerges of Turnbull getting overly intimate with some farmyard animal, I am willing to bet that he and as a result, the Liberal Party will win the next election.
    Shorten is a dud.