Kingslayer slain

From The Australian:

Labor is facing the same devastating defeat that it suffered at the last federal election, as Bill Shorten’s standing with voters as the alternative prime minister has tumbled to the lowest level for any ALP leader in more than a decade.

The latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The Australian, ­reveals Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 33 per cent. Support for the opposition has slumped six points since Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott 10 weeks ago and is back to the same level as the 2013 poll, which was the ALP’s worst election result in 80 years.

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And from Mark the Ballot, betting markets are now pricing no contest:

A further movement to the Coalition in the betting market for the next election.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-11-20 Betfair 1.11 7.27 86.754177
2015-11-20 CrownBet 1.13 6.00 84.151473
2015-11-20 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-11-20 Luxbet 1.07 7.50 87.514586
2015-11-20 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-11-20 TABtouch 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2015-11-20 William Hill 1.10 7.00 86.419753

 

 

 

 

Give the Kinglayer’s back-stabbing of two PMs help bring in the Labor Party’s new leadership ballot rules that make it very difficult to topple a sitting leader, it is only fair that he now slay himself.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. I don’t think he’ll step down. Like most egomaniacs who seek the role of PM, he’s gone too far and done too much to just give up now. In his mind it’s all just a temporary blip…

    • Anyone who has fought their way to the top of a political party won’t go willingly. The problem for Shorten is he’s much better at back room negotiations than connecting with the Australian people.

    • I think the Labour party will leave him as leader, no one else behind him wants to be leader in this current lose lose battle. When Turnbull’s momentum dies down, thats when they (Labour) elects a new leader.

      • Tassie TomMEMBER

        I think they need to let Shorten compete, badly lose, and disappear into the wilderness. Otherwise he will white-ant any leader who is put in his place and they will not have a chance. Think if Gillard’s 2010 election campaign and double it.

    • it would be bad for labor if he quits now. They have to wait and let Malcolm to become hated and than few months before elections Labor has to put someone obscure who will not say anything over the next few months.
      That’s how corrupt two party system works: people vote against person in power and in two party system that means other party wins.

  2. I’d be happy to see him gone but who would replace him? Whoever it is would surely acknowledge that the next election is also Malcolm’s to lose.

  3. Given the economic headwinds facing Aust in late 16 / 17 the ALP should run doggo.

    The “suprise” recession could be enough to wipe out the LNP for a decade or two!!

    • In the perceptions market, LNP have positioned themselves as the economically capable party. Facts don’t matter in elections, only perceptions. Abbott’s biggest contribution to our state will be the closure of the car industry, but the gap in time is enough to stop the electorate seeing the connection. His adamant refusal to reconsider Tax and modifying super and Pensions – strength. Feel free to hope, however.

  4. The ALP appearing to be settling into their post 1996 strategy of ‘leading from opposition’.

    This is a traditional ALP strategy and is made possible because staffers keep their jobs and pollies still get their pensions. The main attraction of course is that the business of government does not get in the way of the business of branch stacking and shoring up power bases in obscure unions.

    The only novel twist is that at the very point that the neo-liberal monetary policy debt driven edifice is crumbling, the ALP have decided that going double down will win hearts and minds.

    Penny Wong’s campaign to be “Worse than Robb” on foreign investment in agriculture is the most recent low point.

    Others include the efforts of the ” shadow minister for foreign investors in existing housing” – Ed Husic.

    The ALP talent pool is so shallow that they think the success of Hawke-Keating was due to neo-liberal extremism and the only failure of the post 1996 period has been to not be sufficiently extreme.

    The world has turned a lot in the last 30 years and the point where economic rationalism morphes into ideological extremism is now pretty clear.

    Sadly the ALP seem to have more important things to do than to learn from the experiment.

    • “Penny Wong’s campaign to be “Worse than Robb” on foreign investment in agriculture is the most recent low point.”

      Completely agree. I used to have a fair amount of respect for her but this idiocy was the last straw for me.

      The Turnbull Govt has outsourced its economic policy to the Greens. Did anyone ask @andrewrobbmp about the deal? https://t.co/RaeUOEbRIi— Senator Penny Wong (@SenatorWong) November 23, 2015

      • AB,

        “..China Ministry of Commerce researcher Mei Xinyu said China should impose retaliatory trade measures on Australia.

        “We should put higher tariffs on Australian agricultural products and we should also apply stricter customs checks,” he said from Beijing. “We should protest loudly over this matter as it is serious discrimination against China.”

        Gotta love that – coming from a country that has continued to impose massive tariffs and quotas on our exports even when our tariffs were lowered and will continue to do so for years after ChAFTA.

        But then that is the whole point of ChAFTA. We allow the Chinese to impose an effective tariff on all Australia industry via the manipulation of exchange rates with ‘capital exports’ to Australia and in return they reduce some tariffs on some goods at some point.

        Only a price chump like Robb would sign off on such a dud deal and to think that Penny Wong wants to go further than even Robb demonstrates why the ALP deserve another decade in opposition and why the Greens have a huge opportunity there for the taking.

      • “Only a price chump like Robb would sign off on such a dud deal and to think that Penny Wong wants to go further than even Robb demonstrates why the ALP deserve another decade in opposition and why the Greens have a huge opportunity there for the taking.”

        Yes, yes, and more yes.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Yes well put 007

      I had hopes the likes of Penny would raise their standard and move the party back to the left (or at least the center) but no, she’s been fully indoctrinated and is now as much a disappointment as the rest of them.

      If you believe in Social Democracy, as do I, then it seems the Greens are our only choice left.
      Maybe in the future we will see a coalition of labor and the Greens.
      How many elections would the Liberal party have won with out the Nationals?

      • Well Labor already is a two party coalition. The Labor Left and the Labor right. And the Left is playing the same role as the National party. Small, neglected and bent over on every policy.

        The Greens are showing signs of abanonding the left for electoral success, as Labor marches to the right the Greens take a more center position. But they are still the best we have for now. Of course with preferentical voting you can put lots of parties ahead of our 2 party idiocracy.

  5. Leave him in place. Interesting social experiment to see what voters will do. No choices but to stay with the familiar parties. This is the scene where in Europe the traditional parties have mostly been swept away.

  6. He was on Triple J’s hack program a few weeks ago advocating reducing the voting age to 16. His logic was that they have to pay adult prices for movie tickets and plane tickets, so they should be treated as an adult for voting.
    He sounded so moronic. So, so moronic.

    • I think if you’re working and paying tax, you should be entitled to vote.

      If you’re not working, even if you are still paying tax, you should not be entitled to vote. Minimum 5 hours a week get’s you the right to have a say.

      • If you’re not working, even if you are still paying tax, you should not be entitled to vote. Minimum 5 hours a week get’s you the right to have a say.

        In a system deliberately designed to keep a certain percentage of people unemployed ?

        Get fucked.

      • Yes, because fuck stay-at-home parents, the sick, and the retired. They shouldn’t be allow to vote. Idiot.

      • Have a cry. My opinion can be changed, but the way you’ve responded shuts down any discussion. Not that it’d be worth having a discussion with either of you two. Cry cry awwww cry

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Yes Brother, you kinda had me with your criticism at those 2 responders, to your, poorly thought out post above, but then you lost me with your infantile “Cry cry awwww cry” line.

        So sure, they could have attempted to persuade you to their more, morally correct and ethical position with less hostile and offensive comments,…. but come on dude that was a totally spastic call, should people who earn more money and pay more tax get extra votes?…. that’s where the logic of your Bull $hit proposition leads.
        You are obviously a teenager who has just started working (at McDonald’s probably) and are filled with a sense of your own self importance, In time you will probably learn not to blurt out thoughts the moment they occur to you and instead think about what you’re about to say, and consider whether or not your intended statement is intelligent and well thought out or just the mental ramblings of a fascist prick.

      • Really if you are a citizen you should be allowed to vote. Exceptions should be as few as possible.
        Children makes sense but where to draw the line? I say at the same point you can enter into contracts. If you are legally a competant adult able to sign contracts you should be able to vote also.

      • My opinion can be changed, but the way you’ve responded shuts down any discussion.

        That’s because it’s an offensive and stupid idea that needs to be shut down.

        Did your mother take time off work to raise you ? Ask her whether or not she likes your idea that she shouldn’t have been allowed to vote while she was doing that.

        Maybe you should try and convince us why we should cripple our democracy even more by disenfranchising a million-plus people for no apparent reason. Or maybe we should just go back to only allowing white male landowners to vote ?

    • The vote for U18’s!? Nah, fuck em. Next thing you know they’ll feel entitled to set waves at the local.

  7. reusachtigeMEMBER

    This is a shame. I like Bill Shorten. He and his party are great defenders of the property status quo. They’re for the 1% so I love them!!!

    • Unfortunately this us actually true. When in power the ALP did all they could to entrench the status quo and the relatively infantile politico housing complex grew to full maturity.

      They had their chance to slowly deflate the bubble and help all those under thirties and young families who needed “affordable housing” but chose to screw them over instead. To quote the greatest ALP politician of my lifetime, “scumbags!!!”.

      • Interestingly enough, the deal to exempt rich prviate companies from tax reporting was done by the Keating government.

        http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/23/tax-transparency-full-list-of-exempt-companies-revealed-as-senate-battle-looms

        Guardian Australia can reveal the full list of 1,498 companies that were – as of 2011 – exempt from filing annual financial reports with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (Asic) under a deal done by the Keating government in 1995.

      • To quote the greatest Labor politician of my lifetime…( Doubt if his suits were made in Italy, or that his mantlepiece clock was Louis XIV (or XVI, or whatever) )

        “I try to think of the Labour movement, not as putting an extra sixpence into somebody’s pocket, or making somebody Prime Minister or Premier, but as a movement bringing something better to the people, better standards of living, greater happiness to the mass of the people. We have a great objective – the light on the hill – which we aim to reach by working the betterment of mankind not only here but anywhere we may give a helping hand. If it were not for that, the Labour movement would not be worth fighting for.”

        Can’t be beat.

      • And if you want a beautifully crafted, reasonably priced suit that is made in Australia try the little shop at the Western end of Hunter St. in good old Newie.

        Can’t be beat.

  8. The Labor party is confronting it’s own irrelevance .
    Being the party of the Unions, & Unions representing only 15% of the work force, Labor is a rump of it’s former self.
    What does it stand for?
    Union hacks and apparachicks,the fruits of office, even if it is opposition.
    Shorten epitemizes these values, and the voters know it.
    Labor has outlived it’s usefulness and has become LNP lite.
    Why choose a cheap immitation when you can get the real deal?

  9. There really is no one ready, willing and able in the Labor Party. Plibbers probably has aspirations, but no. Bowen, smart but presentation deficient, Albo, lol. They all know MT and team will smash them at the next election and probably happy enough to let Bill take the hit and replace post election. Labor should use this time to coordinate with Libs and fix the Senate voting manipulation as it’s in the interests of them both.

  10. The Labor leadership at this time is a poisoned chalice, and Shorten is a sacrificial goat. He looked like he was cruising to victory against that idiot Abbott by simply doing nothing, but now he is going to end up as nothing more than a skidmark on the underpants of history because people remember Prime Ministers, but not opposition leaders.

    As others have stated, the whole point of the ALP now is to provide privilege through patronage, and has nothing to do with leading or benefiting the people of this country. So even once Labor lose the next election and Shorten is flushed down the gurgler where he belongs it won’t matter who takes over because they’re all too busy getting up each others fundamental orifices to actually achieve anything useful.