Dark age of political illegitimacy ending?

From Roy Morgan:

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In mid-November L-NP support is 56% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 44% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support fell for both major parties with support for the L-NP 46% (down 1%) and ALP 28% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens was unchanged at 14.5% while Katter’s Australian Party is 2% (up 1% to the highest since January 2015), Palmer United Party is 1% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped this week to 119.5 (up 7.5pts and the highest since March 2011) with 50.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 31% (down 5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

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The breakout in “government confidence” is an interesting moment. It may be that the dark age of political illegitimacy that began with the sacking of Kevin Rudd has finally ended. Although Turnbull was also installed mid-term he is very popular and may simply considered to be the ‘right man at the right time’ pushing him past the back-stabbing politics.

Fairfax confirmed the Morgan poll:

Capture

If it is the case that a sense of political legitimacy is returning via Malcolm Turnbull then it is very bad news for Bill “Kingslayer” Shorten, who was perhaps the key player in the entire revolving door prime ministership debacle. Certainly betting markets are writing him off, from Mark the Ballot:

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-11-14 Betfair 1.13 6.89 85.910224
2015-11-14 CrownBet 1.13 6.00 84.151473
2015-11-14 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-11-14 Luxbet 1.09 6.20 85.048011
2015-11-14 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-11-14 TABtouch 1.14 5.50 82.831325
2015-11-14 William Hill 1.13 6.00 84.151473

 

 

 

 

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. The ALP need to get rid of Shorten. Unfortunately, that will only be possible after they lose the election in a landslide.

      • ++ The union movement is corrupt to the core, and the parliamentary party is a lap-dog to property interests.

        Voting for labour is like buying a fast-food burger – the marketing resembles the reality in almost no shape or form whatsoever…

  2. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Bill Fallshortman is only filling the chair until a suitable candidate can be found ………but that is the issue for the ALP ……..who do they have? ……they all appear the same bunch of incompetent Union and staffer hacks that were ” moving forward” with Julia or tolerating Kevin Oh Heaven ……….where is a Keating when you need him …..at least old “Placido Domingo” could articulate a vision with a bit of color and style …..and the help of a “wet lettuce “

  3. seriously you are talking about filthy rich unelected prime minister pushing policies his party promised it will not pursue

    and the only argument you have are polls conducted by the same media that orchestrated his installation

    I guess this will be a new norm in future, install an unelected PM because he cannot break any promise since he made none
    A pinnacle of western representative democracy

    • Maybe don’t try to classify the duopoly as a western style democracy. It is not and only succeeds in making it seem legitimate. This electoral system’s only value is that vile dictatorships around the world can refer to it and genuinely say that they’re factually no less legitimate since they’ve adopted the same model.

      • there are two kind of elected offices, directly elected and the other kind – elected indirectly. Prime minister of Australia (like US president, PM of UK, or Chancellor in Germany) are indirectly elected heads of executive branch of government.
        Every position in a democratic government has to be able to track it’s legitimacy to will of majority of voters via direct or indirect elections otherwise it’s undemocratic and illegitimate.
        The very fact that election campaigns are led by parties (not individuals running for seats) with party leaders openly running for prime minister position while being supported by individuals running for a parliament who are party members makes someone indirectly elected into PM position legitimate or not.

        who ever thinks that parliament has legitimacy to elect anyone they want as head of executive branch of government does not understand basic principles of democracy and legitimacy. I’m not disputing legality of such event but rather legitimacy which is more important in an democratic society.

      • The Australian constitution doesn’t even mention the prime minister. The US constitution specifically outlines the role of the executive branch and elections are held for that office, albeit ‘indirect’ via the electoral college.

        You elect a local member and/or party who elect a leader who by convention becomes the Prime Minister. That is Westminster parliamentary democracy.

        You can change it, you just need a majority of the people in the majority of states to agree with you (referendumistically legitimacy speaking)

      • Prime Minister is not an elected position.

        Indeed.

        I like to think our recent run of multiple PMs is helping people to realise that they don’t vote for a PM, they vote for a local member (well, more realistically the local representative of whatever their preferred party is – but KISS to start with).

        In my idealistic fantasies, these are baby, baby steps towards real Democracy.

  4. But who will get rid of Negative Gearing?

    What we need is to know who to vote for to end Australias economic farce and return us back to a livable country that we used to be.

    With such computer science and technology, Im surprised Politics is still treated like some kind of medieval religion. With the trillions of dollars in the world, why arent we living in houses of gold with much higher standards of living. Why arent large projects organised and constructed? Nowadays, its all about ‘The Game’ of politics rather then the purpose of what politics represents to the people.

    I have to admit I get frustrated. Its almost like there’s nothing we can do except wait 10-15 years until the Baby Boomers die for things to come good again.

    • “I have to admit I get frustrated. Its almost like there’s nothing we can do except wait 10-15 years until the Baby Boomers die for things to come good again.”

      Get good again – ????? – like when, what time period is this good you seek…. and why does it necessitate so much death to usher in….

      • The boomers have categorically wrecked everything they’ve touched. For the first time in a looong time, the current generation are demonstrably worse-off than their predecessors. Remember, the boomers overwhelmingly voted for Tony Abbott. What a horrible cohort; the ultimate ‘me’ generation.

        Conveniently, they’ve wrecked everything so badly they will get to see and feel the depression they’ve induced well before they shuffle off their mortal coils. The self-entitled whining will be epic.

        As a mate of mine said to me about 8 years ago (he was very prescient): the boomers are the most entitled generation of all time. They will suck the wealth out of this country, and they will feel that they’ve earned it. I’m leaving with my family before they do.

        Bye bye boomers, boomers, bye bye. Ha ha ha!

      • I actually apply blame where its fundamental…. MPS…. the political advocacy group with the power and wealth to craft the narrative. You just want a convenient scapegoat LD so put the onus on the consumer and not the authoritarian sell side.

        Remember boomers did not create the economic nor legal frame works for derivatives or criminal underwriting standards…. that distinction is awarded to the Chicago School and friends…. Boomers [narrative labeling] were born into the socioeconomic template of consumer vs citizen, groomed as it were. Corporatist spend billions on grooming, even focusing on kids as young as 3-5 years old, its akin to religious indoctrination [like you]. Its kinda creepy weird that you never attack or question the motives of mobs like MPS or Economic schools [ideological political advocacy group[s] but endlessly attack the the victims of their failed experiments.

        Skippy…. Quire… for every bahahaha et al your stripe utter…. is it a sign of brain cells dying…. your stripes glee at death is morbid… must be a neoliberalcon thingy….

      • To be fair, Skip, I’ll also include the leading part of Gen X in this indictment. A nice reset will fix things and level the playing field.

        I’m not sure where I saw it, but the statement that when one is elderly, all one’s possessions should be able to fit in one box was salient. Personally, I’m trying to approximate that by jamming as many kids into a 2BR apartment as I can… I’m now down to half a closet and 2 desk drawers. I reckon I can reduce that in the next few decades.

      • You just don’t seem to realize the whole generational thingy is a divisional meme, keep age cohorts at each others necks whilst the real looters abscond with unearned wealth and have a good belly laugh… see photo…

        http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/mark-ames-libertarian-liars-top-reagan-adviser-cato-institute-chairman-william-niskanen-%E2%80%9Cdeficits-don%E2%80%99t-matter%E2%80%9D.html

        You just don’t seem to realize economics is just – theory – hence why it constantly fails in reality, where forensic history tells another story all together i.e. bargaining power and outcomes.

        I actually hold no ill will against you personally, just the stuff you say. I was making 100K in the mid 80s in Calif, living in south bay LA, then after my mother lost the executive job during a corporate restructuring could not find employment due to age factors had to support her after a year. In the end I had to relocate her to AZ with a 40% income loss, which at the end of it all sent me broke. Did a year on the streets whilst holding down a job in the trades living out of my Kombi till I could relaunch myself back to my previous level. Then got sick of Calif and moved to Colorado only to re-experience homelessness during a rocky mountain winter, found out employer was up to his eyeballs in criminal stuff, so I left.

        All this after growing up with half a silver spoon in my mouth.

        Skippy…. Its just a bit weird that you think a crash of any sort that effects a significant portion of the population – fixes anything – when historically its the worst outcome…. its when the weird go pro or the status quo gain even more power and wealth….

      • I often wonder about the events of World War II. Should we just blame Adolf Hitler for it all, or should we blame the millions of German citizens who supported him in all those rallies, voted for him, paid taxes to him, pledged allegiance to him and then did all the killing for him?

        Now 70 years later a similar question is asked: Do we blame a handful of powerful elites, or blame the millions who voted for them, paid taxes to them, pledged allegiance to them and then went out and did the legwork for them?

        Skippy would probably put all the blame on Hitler and the powerful elites. Me? I’m not so sure.

      • Which is exactly why I’m a proud crashnik, Claw. Even the innocent fools have earned their share of the pain to come. Without them it would have been impossible to build the bonfire.

      • Claw,

        The problem with your example is that it leaves out the key actors, the debt burden – repatriation forced on Germany was never viable at onset, which then metastasized by the actions of the holders of the debt, by stripping out the capacity for Germany to even support its internal economy, no less than pay anything back. Which we now know was the primary driver of its hyperinflation [internal financial death loop].

        Which becomes even more ludicrous as their assets were at fire sale price due to the aforementioned, which funny enough were bought up on the cheap by ex – country industrialists and financial sorts, gravitating into absurdity when aforementioned capitalists provided the means – for – the rearming of the debtors. These business sorts thought erroneously that they could control Herr wing nut to not only receive the pass debt, but to wildly profit and gain dominate market share [and rub out some old foes], tho as history repetitively notes, the incentives of such machinations have a high fail rate.

        The absolute bizarre-ness is highlighted by some of these entity’s suing the US Gov for bomb damage incurred to their property’s, after their plans went awry, life – art thingy….

        Skippy… so please do explain how the great unwashed had so much power in the great scheme things…. when information arb precludes such impetus…. IMWLTK….

    • You’ll need to add twenty years to that analysis Matt. Gen X have been doing exactly the same as the boomers to get us where we are today. That’ll make the wait 35-40 years.

      And gen Y are shaping up the same.

      • I reckon you’re right, although I’m not convinced about Gen Y. Definitely the half of Gen X who got in early enough (before house prices went completely insane) have been 100% behind the current insanity.

        Quick, doctor, a depression! That’ll fix this problem for a good 50 years.

      • yep. I reckon it’s a big ask…..when you’ve been brought up in a world of dog eat dog (as laid out by boomers) it’ll take a special effort for a new generation to turn compassionate and make the necessary changes that would fix the embedded errors. Because you’re too damn flogged out just trying to make your own way among the mess.

      • This is where skip’s point becomes germane. If you give succeeding generations the same grooming, economic incentives, social frameworks etc, you are going to get the same outcomes.

        Therefore you need to look at who sets the framework, and it isn’t ordinary boomers, or gen x for that matter.

      • emess – agreed. I suppose I could have invoked the flimsy ‘monkey see, monkey do’ instead.
        ‘The answers lie back in time’ would have summed it adequately too but that’s another commenter’s IP.

        At some simple level I figure that whatever our passiveness about the handed down ‘framework’, we do vote. And that anyone who has or continues to vote within the falsity of the two party straight jacket should carry some blame (no matter what their ‘generation’).

      • To complicate things pedals, a lot of the present mess can be traced back to the generations of Thatcher and Reagan. So, between boomers, pre-boomers and gen x, just blaming one is pretty inaccurate.

        As for votes, the choice was Thatcherism, vs loopy left craft unions. Hardly a choice at all.

      • yep. I reckon it’s a big ask…..when you’ve been brought up in a world of dog eat dog (as laid out by boomers) it’ll take a special effort for a new generation to turn compassionate and make the necessary changes that would fix the embedded errors.

        It might require a big war or two. That’s what it took last time.

      • drsmithy do you think of belive either WW actually sorted anything – ???? – let alone the machinations which started them, just in the latter case the wealth accrued by a small segment of the over all population breathed life into neoliberalism.

      • Out of the ashes of WW2 came the people who instigated extensive public infrastructure projects, public funded scientific research, regulated industry, then later public funding for healthcare and secondary education. Massive nation building efforts all over the world by the so-called “Greatest Generation”.

        Kids still in single digits, or to be born in the next decade or two, might become the next one of those through a similar chain of events.

  5. People seemed to have effect forgotten what a honeymoon period in politics is.

    Despite having showered us with enormous amounts of waffle, Malcolm Turnbull hasn’t actually done anything.

    Sooner or later he will have to start implementing policies and since the hard-right who installed him won’t let him implement anything remotely reasonable, it will bomb like Tony Abbott’s first budget.

    At the moment, Malcolm Turnbull is whatever the public wants him to be. He has carefully cultivated this image by not actually doing anything.

    After plotting for 2 years, he should have policies and general framework to implement. The fact that he doesn’t indicates a lot.

    This bloke is Kevin Rudd Mk II. Mark my words.

    • People are getting very excited over nothing because as there is a god in heaven, so there is a Liberal in the Lodge. MB is mostly born and raised Lib voters who would never get their hands dirty by voting for a Trade Unionist(hence all the heavy breathing over Di Natale). Turnbull can do no wrong in their eyes….except be unpopular…..like the last time he was leaders. At the moment he is all things to everyone, even things that are in direct conflict: raising business confidence by hinting raising taxes(!), saving the environment by allowing the go ahead of huge coal projects (!), supporting gay marriage by never publicly talking about his position since attaining office(!)

      • I will likely vote greens now that Miln is gone. I don’t know why you’d think that the MB base is mostly Liberal.

      • Rofl. What a load of nonsense, HnH may occasionally get caught up in whatever the press gallery is chattering about, but the commentary on achievements (or lack thereof) of this and previous governments is pretty much on point.

        Funny how partisans seem to see bias against them at every turn except when it’s for their tribe.

      • Hence the (or lack thereof), although it’s only been two years. I’d count the transfer of monitoring and enforcement of sales of existing property from the FIRB to the ATO as a reasonable accomplishment, even if it’s only a bureaucratic one.

      • rob barrattMEMBER

        Surely you can’t be waiting for politicians to change anything? That only happens in revolutions, which ALWAYS turn for the worse. Your best approach is to:
        1 Make a buck while you can, Boomer, Gen X,Y blah blah..
        2 Change your rulers frequently.
        3 Blog here to reduce your levels of helpless frustration.
        Remember, if you end up rich and powerful, you will do and act exactly as the current rich and powerful do.

      • “I’ll be voting Greens because they have the moral gumption that the modern ALP lacks”

        LOL!!! I laughed so hard that now my belly hurts. Thanks for a free entertainment.

        @Jason,

        The high house prices are a godsend – for the first time in a long while, one has a chance to stop and think whether it is a good idea to trap one’s capital into a single unproductive pet – err “asset” – that keeps eating money for as long as you keep it.

        Or would one be better off to free up one’s capital and maximize one’s cash flows by start buying profitable businesses in small tranches, bit by bit?

  6. He truly is a better salesman! But he will have to release detailed policies before an election and be faced with either abandoning Abbott/Hockey unpopular measures and upsetting the right wing or a less comfortable margin.
    It used to be “never stand between MT and a bag of money”.
    The right (extreme in the Libs) will find out not to stand between MT and a Prime Ministership.
    He will do what he needs to do to win with a solid margin and if that includes upsetting the right with a few Captain’s Picks for the swinging seats then so it will be. And the right won’t be able to do anything about it because he will win and remain popular (possibly for a very long time).
    Malcolm may bring the Libs back frmo their more extreme places, although I understand he is allowing the attack on donations to charities that campaign for the environment eg Greenpeace.

    • The conservative wing of the Libs mistook their election for a clear mandate and support of the public, when really it was just a “not Labor” vote. Their confidence in a moron (Abbott) who was never fit to lead and their hubris was their undoing. It will be interesting to see if they react the same way when the Libs are re-elected?

    • It used to be “never stand between MT and a bag of money”.
      I like “never stand between HnH and Malcolms ball sack”

    • The most publicly popular person in a political party should be its leader. This is true until Kevin Rudd was backstabbed, and we had a long period where ‘faceless man’ took over the political arena. MT’s elevation marks a return to the norm.

      • rob barrattMEMBER

        You have to have the leadership qualities. I would use the word respect. Every leader has to earn it, the sooner the better. That’s also why another major party leader must go..

  7. Whoa there. The piece analysed the polls with a reasonable interpretation. There have been MB editorials noting the good policy aspects of the Greens too. Whether or not you personally feel MT has done much, the electorate is responding to a change in approach. One clear policy that has been dropped is ‘wreck the joint in the name of ideology except where trumped by a potential vote’. None of this needs to imply MB support for MT. The secret of true analysis is not to fall in love or fall in hate. Just analyse the facts, even when we don’t like them.

    • “The secret of true analysis is not to fall in love or fall in hate. Just analyse the facts, even when we don’t like them.”

      I couldn’t have expressed better myself – though I had stated just that in so many words.

  8. Hahahahaha.. MB’s poster boy. Bernie Lomax is just another power hungry sociopath. He’s no different.

  9. Turnbull’s vision is clear and dovetails neatly with the Gonski reforms. The only two ways the economic reforms that we so desperately need (quarantining negative gearing, pulling back the super concessions, cutting the CGT discounts for individuals and trusts, lifting or broadening the GST, including house values in means tested payments, killing payroll tax etcetera) is to do them as a response to a very deep recession or take it as a package to the next election. If the package is “fair” and I mean in an equitable (rather than political) manner, then Turnbull will be given a huge mandate by the people to get on with it.

  10. Alex, the issue will be however that ‘fair’ policy like you describe will necessitate winners and losers. That doesn’t fly with the Aust electorate so no pollie will go there.