From Roy Morgan:
In mid-November L-NP support is 56% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 44% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.
Primary support fell for both major parties with support for the L-NP 46% (down 1%) and ALP 28% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens was unchanged at 14.5% while Katter’s Australian Party is 2% (up 1% to the highest since January 2015), Palmer United Party is 1% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (up 0.5%).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped this week to 119.5 (up 7.5pts and the highest since March 2011) with 50.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 31% (down 5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The breakout in “government confidence” is an interesting moment. It may be that the dark age of political illegitimacy that began with the sacking of Kevin Rudd has finally ended. Although Turnbull was also installed mid-term he is very popular and may simply considered to be the ‘right man at the right time’ pushing him past the back-stabbing politics.
Fairfax confirmed the Morgan poll:
If it is the case that a sense of political legitimacy is returning via Malcolm Turnbull then it is very bad news for Bill “Kingslayer” Shorten, who was perhaps the key player in the entire revolving door prime ministership debacle. Certainly betting markets are writing him off, from Mark the Ballot:
House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%) 2015-11-14 Betfair 1.13 6.89 85.910224 2015-11-14 CrownBet 1.13 6.00 84.151473 2015-11-14 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813 2015-11-14 Luxbet 1.09 6.20 85.048011 2015-11-14 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042 2015-11-14 TABtouch 1.14 5.50 82.831325 2015-11-14 William Hill 1.13 6.00 84.151473