RM business confidence rises on Turnbull

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By Leith van Onselen

Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its Business Confidence survey for September, which recovered upon Malcom Turnbull’s rise to Prime Minister, jumping 9.9% to 112.8; although confidence still remains below the five year average (116.8) and 12 months ago (122.9 in Sept 2014).

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According to RMR:

The increase in Roy Morgan Business Confidence in September was as a result of improvements across all components of the index. The strongest gains were in how businesses felt about the economy over the next twelve months and five years and the encouragement this would give them to invest in their business.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research says: “It is not surprising that Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased in September given the change of Prime Minister and the relative lack of bad economic news during the month. Despite fluctuations in the ASX during September it was down only 1.5% for the month”.

“In the three weeks before Malcolm Turnbull was elected by the party-room as PM Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 104.2, and over the three weeks after it has averaged 115.5″.

Sugar hits are common after such events, and it remains to be seen whether the improvement in confidence will be sustained over coming months.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.