Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.
Reuters: China banks come back for more capital as bad loans pile up
Mounting bad loans are running down Chinese banks’ capital buffers, forcing them to turn to investors for fresh funds despite raising a record amount last year.
Commercial banks are issuing expensive preference shares as well as convertible and perpetual bonds to shore up their capital bases, even after 2014’s bumper issuance when lenders raced to meet new regulatory requirements.
But with bad loans up 30 percent in the first half of 2015 according to China’s banking regulator, doubts are growing about the ability of some banks to withstand the economic slowdown.
“China is facing a systemic credit crisis,” said Jim Antos, banking analyst at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong.
“Chinese banks, until mid 2014, were able to cope with deterioration of loans. It seems that has changed.”
There is no end in site to the bad loans. Also from Reuters: A China twist: why are malls closing if consumption is rising?
Rising vacancy rates and plummeting rents are increasingly common in Chinese malls and department stores, despite official data showing a sharp rebound in retail sales that helped the world’s second-largest economy beat expectations in the third quarter.
The answer to that apparent contradiction lies in the rising competition from online shopping and government purchases possibly boosting retail statistics. Add poorly managed properties into the equation and the empty malls aren’t much of a surprise.
Chinese cities are constantly building new shopping areas. Aside from a city such as Beijing, which is already built out with prime shopping areas such as Xidan, the competition and drive for new properties is intense. In Wuhan, Han Street Outdoor Walking Plaza & the New Wanda Mall Complex (汉街) has attracted new business, as has Wuhan Tiandi in Hankou. The older areas are like drive-in movie theaters, bowling alleys and roller rinks in the U.S. Once popular destinations eclipsed by a new generation of consumption patterns, the difference being the level of investment and time to change. The malls are expensive and consumption patterns sometimes shift inside of 10 years, if not faster.
A joint report by the China Chain Store Association and Deloitte showed that by the end of this year, the total number of China’s new malls is projected to reach 4,000, a jump of over 40 percent from 2011.
In some cases, the new malls will be category killers that create new traffic patterns. In other cases, they will be the failed investments.
The situation with the malls reminds me of the ghost cities. China builds much faster than the demand, but for many years the demand showed up eventually. Common sense and experience told you they wouldn’t change their behavior in time, one day they would build ahead of demand and demand wouldn’t materialize.
And other credit gremlins are jumping up every day. Sino-Ocean Land Holdings (3377) is the focus of renewed debt worries. Weak sales and a weak balance sheet has people wondering if the firm won’t run into financing trouble.
Note: Google translates Sino-Land as “offshore real estate”, from iFeng: 远洋地产或存资金链断裂风险：负债460亿再举债百亿:
Meanwhile the huge liabilities, sales did not reach the target. According to this year’s sales target of 42 billion yuan of offshore real estate, as of the third quarter, the sales revenue of 22.1 billion yuan, like in the fourth quarter to reach 20 billion yuan in sales, the difficulty is not small.
…Changjiang Daily reporter inquiries found that , since last year, the frequent offshore real estate financing, corporate debt continues to climb.
In July last year, offshore real estate issue 1.2 billion dollars Senior Notes. Six months of this year, January 29, again issued $ 1.2 billion two-year senior notes, became in 2015 the largest Asian investment grade bonds trading margin narrowed.
Open offshore real estate Annual Report 2014 found that the company can be said to bear the financial weight. The report shows that as of the end of 2014, the net debt ratio of about 66%, total loans reached 45.6 billion yuan, an increase of nearly thirty percent, then to pay interest expenses reached 470 million yuan, compared with 2013 increased the amount of over 100 million yuan.
The first half of this year, the financial situation of Sino-Ocean Land has not significantly improved. This year’s semi-annual report, the Group’s turnover 15.107 billion yuan, down 15% from a year earlier, gross margin remained at 20 percent, with the year-ago quarter, in which the core net margin rose by 2% compared with last year. Group has total interest-bearing liabilities amounted to 46 billion yuan, total cash resources of 17.436 billion yuan, net gearing ratio was 63%, compared with last year fell by 3 percentage points, but still a relatively high level since 2009.
This is not as bad as Kaisa, but something to keep an eye on. The debt ratios deteriorate rapidly as the end approaches because firms relying on debt use it to maintain operations. The article also discusses Sino-Land’s “crazy expansion:”
Ocean Land shoulder huge debt supported by its crazy expansion, this expansion continued to show rapid trend.
August 15 this year, Sino-Land in downtown Wuhan, the two projects have appeared. October 24, Changjiang Daily reporter in a real estate sales department located at Hankou Road, see the tree aunts, promotional exhibition card display, offshore real estate tentacles has been extended from Beijing to Chongqing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hangzhou , Wuhan, Guangzhou , Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Qingdao and other major cities in the country a second-tier.
Data show that in 2014, when the country entered the property market downturn, the pace of offshore real estate suddenly taken adverse economic expansion, breath scored 13 spend 18.7 billion yuan, a total of 1,455,000 square meters.
Changjiang Daily reporter noted that offshore real estate is about to enter the Wuhan city center last year, has now opened is located in Hankou He Zhujiadun of two real estate plots, resulting from last year acquired Fuxing Fitch. Last August’s announcement showed an EIA, the program requires an investment of 9 billion yuan to develop.
The punchline:
Huge debt hanging, a number of big moves in urgent need of funds of funds and real estate sales are not ideal due to the slow return, profit compression, no doubt cover the head crazy expansion in offshore real estate haze, its tight liquidity or deposit fracture risk.
…Shen Meng believes that crazy about the expansion in 2010, Zeng offshore real estate trouble. Today, offshore real estate at the time of planning the business model innovation and profit model needs careful restructuring, debt to repay, under apparent turnaround has not yet appeared in the macroeconomic environment, capital chain stretched too tight too risky.
Sino Ocean plans to raise 5 billion yuan in two bond tranches for working capital and to pay down existing debt. However, there’s 46 billion yuan in debt on its balance sheet, which is why it has also been shedding assets.
The Standard: Evergrande takes over Chongqing project
Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333) will spend HK$7 billion to take over a Chongqing project from Sino Land (0083), Chinese Estates (0127) and CC Land (1224).
Evergrande will spend HK$3.5 billion buying all of Sino Land’s 50 percent interest in the project, Sino Land and its parent Tsim Sha Tsui Properties (0247) announced jointly yesterday.
The company is also putting a big chunk of capital into Huarong’s IPO. The investment is equivalent to more than 80% of the planned bond issue.
Moody’s: Sino-Ocean’s planned investment in Huarong delays deleveraging efforts
Moody’s Investors Service says that Sino-Ocean Land Holdings Limited’s (Baa3 stable) proposed subscription of China Huarong Asset Management Co., Ltd.’s (A3 stable) shares will delay its deleveraging efforts, but has no immediate impact on its Baa3 issuer rating and its stable rating outlook.
On 14 October, Sino-Ocean announced that it will — as its cornerstone investor — subscribe to Huarong’s H-shares for a total consideration of HKD5.3 billion.
…The impact of the proposed transaction on Sino-Ocean’s financials will also be mitigated by the slowdown in its purchases of land this year for its land bank, mainly due to high land prices in the markets that it operates. According to the company, its purchases of land declined by about 33.8% year-on-year in 1H 2015 as measured by gross floor area.
Sino-Ocean says that it intends to cooperate with Huarong on the acquisition and disposal of real estate assets, and to also cooperate with Huarong’s property arms to jointly develop property projects.
Much more Chinese bad debt to come.
