From Bloomberg:
The best forecaster of the Australian dollar isn’t swayed by the recent surge that sent the currency to its best weekly gain since 2011, predicting it will fall back below 70 U.S. cents by year-end.
For Konrad Bialas, a foreign-exchange strategist in Warsaw at TMS Brokers, the bulk of the Aussie’s depreciation is behind it after the currency dropped 20 percent in the 12 months through September and touched a six-year low of 68.96 cents on Sept. 7. Don’t expect a rally though, according to Bialas, who estimates it will end this year at 69 cents, 6 percent lower than its close in New York on Friday. The currency will recover to 71 cents in the final quarter of 2016, he predicts.
Bialas is part of a team that was produced the most accurate forecasts for the Aussie in the year through September, according to Bloomberg rankings. He predicts China, Australia’s largest trading partner, will probably lower the annual growth target in its new five-year plan to 6.5 percent from 7 percent, while a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in December will also keep pressure on the Aussie dollar.
Phewy! On two fronts:
- these guys can’t match MB’s three year record, we just don’t bother with Bloomie, and
- recover to 71 cents by the end of next year? Lol…
60 cents next year and a cycle low of 45 cents as the commodity bust reaches undreamed lows.
