Are we all correlated to the Shanghai shocker?

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The recent Shanghai rally is off again today, up 1.4% and pushing new highs in the rebound:

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There’s not a lot of sense to it but as I noted this morning the Shanghai crash seems to have played a leading role in disseminating bearish thinking about China among global fundies through the August equity shock, from BofAML:

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When China closed for Golden Week, markets bottomed and rebounded strongly and sentiment has lifted along with them.

Now we’re back Shanghai is up and so, it seems, are S&P500 futures:

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This is all circumstantial and could be entirely unrelated (correlation not being causation and all of that) and I rather hope so. Yoking global movements to the deeply busted communist casino is a very bad idea on the way up, down and around.

Perhaps a better, or at least associated explanation is the increasingly universal assumption that Fed rate hikes are off for 2015, from Zero Hedge:

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That, in turn, could be lifting Shanghai, along with all other EM forex and the Aussie.

Something of a pause in our Chimerican unwind.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.