It’s not scorching but Malcolm Turnbull has turned around the Coalition’s electoral fortunes for now, from The Australian:
From memory even Kevin Rudd managed a resurgence to 50/50 on his second coming so this is not exactly on fire. A stronger result came from Roy Morgan:
In late September L-NP support jumped to 55% (up 12%) cf. ALP 45% (down 12%) on a two-party preferred basis after Malcolm Turnbull successfully challenged Tony Abbott last week to become Australia’s 29th Prime Minister. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.
Primary support for the L-NP jumped a massive 11% to 46% (the highest L-NP support since the 2013 Federal Election at which the L-NP gained 45.5% support) while ALP support decreased to 29.5% (down 7%) – the lowest ALP primary support for more than three years since July 2012.
Support for the Greens fell to 13% (down 3%), Palmer United Party is 1.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (up 1%), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (down 2%).
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, September 19/20, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,059 Australian electors.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rocketed upwards this week (up 17pts) with 42.5% (up 7.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (down 9.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 58.5% (up 11.5%) cf. ALP 41.5% (down 11.5%); Women: L-NP 52% (up 5%) cf. ALP 48% (down 5%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP now has its only advantage among young Australians. 18-24yr olds favour the ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%; 25-34yr olds favour the ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%; 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 64% cf. ALP 36%.
Analysis by State
The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in 4 Australian States. Tasmania: L-NP 64% cf. ALP 36%, Queensland: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%, New South Wales: L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%, Western Australia L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%, Victoria: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50% and South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.
From Mark the Ballot, betting markets still stronger favour the Coalition:
And my own chart of first term PMs:
At least in terms of Roy Morgan, Turnbull is starting off strongly. And the lessons are:
- if you’re a first term PM and your approval rating is -14 or below at the 24th month then pack your bags;
- Gillard and Abbott have a strange polling synergy, rather suggesting that they were politically linked in the electorate’s mind, perhaps as equally illegitimate rolling out of the Rudd debacle, and
- do not treat the Australian polity as an idiot nor assume it is your right to rule it.