Fairfax’s Peter Martin has reported that today’s Labour Force print for August, to be released by the ABS, could register a shock rise in unemployment to a 13-year high of 6.5% due to changes in Newstart rules that force unemployed people undertaking short training courses to apply for up to 20 jobs a month:
Throughout July and August the government has been phasing in new rules for access to the Newstart unemployment benefit. It’s becoming harder to get without actually applying for jobs to prove you are looking for work.
Because many more Newstart recipients have been actively looking for work, rather than merely receiving the benefit and passively being available for work, the unemployment rate published by the bureau climbed from 6.1 to 6.3 per cent in July.
But the bulk of those extra “unemployed” would have been no more out of work than before. While suddenly fitting the bureau’s definition of unemployment, their status as Newstart recipients would have remained unchanged.
It’s likely to happen again in the August figures due on Thursday…
As noted by Adam Creighton and David Uren over at The Australian, the “sticker shock” from the rise in unemployment could also further undermine consumer confidence, which is already at fragile levels.
I’ll publish my usual detailed report on the August labour force figures after their release at 11.30am.
