Today’s housing finance data for July, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), posted a small rise in both owner-occupied finance commitments and investor finance commitments.
According to the ABS, total owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% over the month to be up by 0.7% over the year (see below charts).
The value of investor finance commitments rose by 0.5% in July, but were up by 16.5% over the year (see next chart).
Moreover, investors accounted for a record 51.4% of total finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in the year to July 2015:
Meanwhile, first home buyer (FHB) owner-occupied demand remained tepid in July, falling to just 15.4% of total owner-occupied finance commitments after declining by 1.0% in July and by 1.1% over the year (see below charts).
The comparison of the share of investor and FHB commitments is stark, with a near inverse correlation present, suggesting that investors are locking young Australians out of owner-occupation:
Despite the lies from the property lobby that domestic investors are driving housing supply, they remain overwhelmingly interested in hoovering up existing homes:
Meanwhile, the average loan size jumped 2.7% in July and was up 9.6% over the year, and is trending upwards on a 3-month moving average basis:
Finally, those banking on continued strong house price growth might get a shock from the next chart showing the overall slowdown in loan growth:
House prices tend to follow finance commitments, suggesting national house price growth should soon start to fall.
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