by Chris Becker
ANZ posted their monthly job advertisement figures earlier today and its an interesting preview for Thursdays all important ABS Labour Force figures.
A surprising bounce of 1% in August after falling half that in July, but the trend growth was well below the average rate of last year.
Treasurer Joe Hockey tried to put a positive spin on the release on Twitter:
The number of job advertisements in August was a full 16.2% higher than the level we inherited from Labor (based off ANZ job ads data).
— Joe Hockey (@JoeHockey) September 7, 2015
From ANZ’s Chief Economist Warren Hogan:
The trend measure however, suggests there has been a slowdown in growth since late last year. This is consistent with our expectations for employment growth to moderate in the second half of the year, after a strong first half.
The recent strength in employment growth has been concentrated in a range of labour intensive services industries, however job losses in mining, mining-related construction and manufacturing are likely to weigh on employment growth over the next year .
With the drag from mining investment likely to continue to weigh on the economy, and non-mining activity also expanding only modestly given weak growth in both household incomes and business profits, the economy is likely to continue to grow below trend over the next year or so.
This suggests that employment growth is unlikely to pick-up meaningfully in the near-term.
You’re going to have to do more heavy lifting Joe. The RBA can only cut so much to keep the unemployment trend in check. Rates have fallen 200 basis points as unemployment rose from 5% to over 6%:
