Westpac jobs index points to falling growth

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From Westpac:

CaptureThere are many business surveys out there and most have questions that are applicable to the labour market. To generate the broadest and deepest labour market indicator possible, Westpac compiles all the relevant indictors from these surveys into the proprietary Westpac Jobs Index.

• The Jobs Index firmed slightly in July, lifting to 49.7 from 49.3 in June and a recent low of 48.6 in November 2014. Remember, the Index is set so the long run average equals 50. The Index had been on a general firming trend since the low of 45.1 in April 2013 till it peaked at 50.8 in September 2014 from where it has bounced from a low of 48.6 and a high of 50.3.

• The Index correctly highlighted some upside momentum in the total employment through late 2014, up to around a 2%yr pace by end 2014. In the end employment growth hit 1.8%yr in Dec 2014. It also picked the moderation, or levelling out, in the pace through Q1 (employment averaged 1.6%yr) before an acceleration back to around 2% though Q2.

• Now the Index is suggesting that the pace of employment growth can ease back to around 1½%yr to 1¾%yr during the second half of 2015.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.