Taking stock of destroyed LNG equity

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LNG is generally down again today as the oil price still looks very weak and will probably go lower. Woodside is trying to hang on to $30 but it did break support briefly earlier in the week and it’s odds on that that means it’s going a lot lower:

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Santos is, of course, already a lot lower and bottom-feeders may be tempted pick it up on a potential corporate play. I would suggest that doing so comes with large risks. It may look cheap but given it is effectively worthless, in the same way that iron ore juniors are, do not underestimate how low this thing can drop while you wait for a buyer:

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Likewise, while Origin is not worthless, it is not worth $9 billion either, not while it holds $12 billion in debt and an asset on its books that cost $25 billion to build that is worthless:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.