NOAA: July warmest month in history

From the US NOAA:

201507

Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST.v4) anomaly analysis as described in Huang et al. (2015). Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC’s Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page. The percentile map on the right provides additional information by placing the temperature anomaly observed for a specific place and time period into historical perspective, showing how the most current month, season or year compares with the past.

201507 (2)

 

David Llewellyn-Smith
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  1. Funny – coldest Melbourne winter for ages, and listed as slightly warmer than average.
    I guess winter actually was colder when I was growing up.

    • It’s been colder than a nun’s cuddles here in Canberra this winter compared to recent times, and I’ve thought the same thing. My memories of winter in Canberra in the mid 70s was that it was much colder than it is now, so this freezing winter is actually only on the long term average.

    • FiftiesFibroShack

      Yeah, had a few cold days in Sydney – well colder than the previous year – but definitely remember the shrinkage factor being worse a degade or two ago.

      • drf,

        Not really – neither word was used. Just musing over the unreliability of memory and the way perceptions of ones environment alter over time.

      • Josh MoorreesMEMBER

        bit of a boiling frog type scenario where you get used to it and think a ‘normal’ day is cold.

      • The BoM data for July contradicts the NOAA data, which is showing “near average” across southern Australia. In fact the BoM temperature data was much colder than average – a whopping 0.39C for Victoria. This is in the bottom third of all measurements over the past 106 years. Through that time there has been an ever increasing amount of CO2 to do its wonders in heating the planet and yet my gas usage is higher than any in the last 15 years residing at the present location despite lowering the the set temperature, taking the full benefits of Rudd’s insulation program in addition to the original insulation installed and waiting till the internal temperature is below 14C before actually using the heater.

      • Rick,

        Your BoM data gave order statistics for the 106 year which contradict your assertion that it was ‘much colder’ than average in the Eastern states affected by the cold weather event.

        Top of the bottom third over a century causes the coldest weather in two decades means the last two decades have been consistently warmer with no sign of getting colder.

        The BoM page also states that the national temperature was 0.42 C warmer than the average.

      • The southern part of Australia in the NOAA image shows white – meaning “near average”. That area includes Victoria, which was a massive 0.39C cooler according to the BoM. So the two sets of data are in conflict.

        The NOAA data also disagrees with the the UAH satellite data and that is known to be more reliable. NOAA have a record for making “warmest ever” press releases then quietly recanting when challenged. THey are an unreliable source of climate data.

      • NOAA have a record … of recanting when challenged. THey are an unreliable source of climate data.

        Aw, Christ, put a sock in it you slap-headed absolute pair-of-aching-balls of a man…

        The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is “unreliable” but a wingnut on the internet with an aluminium skullcap IS reliable. For f sake f off.

    • Your impression of it being colder in Melbourne is spot on. Southern Australia was “much” colder than average in July. The BoM have the data:
      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml
      Victoria was 0.39C below the average of the 106 year record. NSW was even colder at 0.47C below the average with Tasmania following closely at 0.44C below average.
      Check your own usage of heating gas and electricity despite the additional insulation installed and weather proofing carried out.

      Clearly the NOAA data disagrees with this as it shows the whole of southern Australia as being average. NOAA are recognised as being at the forefront of temperature homerginisation best practice. This is the process that meteorologic agencies use to make the historical records colder and the present gets warmer to reaffirm a warming trend. Their report that 2014 was the warmest year on record was later diluted to a 38% probability of being the warmest on record. So odds are in favour of it NOT being the warmest:
      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html
      However the press releases of 2014 being the warmest on record were already widely broadcast. The approach is to get a headline, then make the record colder so it is easier for the next year to be warmer.

      The satellite temperature data gives a better indication of reality:
      http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2015_v6.png
      July 2015 showing 0.18C above the average of satellite records since 1979.

      • You unethical astroturfing scum, you know better. The cold snaps are polar vortices coming north thanks to AGW (watch from 12m:30s)
        http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3796205.htm

        To learn more about the organized science denial campaign — what it is and who is behind it — google the following articles:

        Secretive donors gave US climate denial groups $125m over three years

        Paid Commenters Hired By Fox News To Spread Right Wing Talking Points Across The Net

        Climate Deniers Taking a Page Out of Big Tobacco Playbook

        Billion-dollar climate denial network exposed

        Astroturfing the climate wars: five ways to spot a troll

        Astroturfing works, and it’s a major challenge to climate change

        ASTROTURFING, WHAT IS IT AND WHY IT MATTERS

        “Dark Money” Funds Climate Change Denial Effort

      • Come on R2M, his articulated and informative response can not be trashed by a one eyed rash conspiracy theory.

        R2M your better than that, I know that. Counter his argument with facts and data or but out.

        In my opinion, rickw has offered great insight. Enough for me to once again yawn at the global warming hysteria that R2M pedals.

      • You would find his non-arguments and links to denier blogs like drroyspencer.com convincing!
        http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Roy_Spencer

        Didn’t you promise to stop your astroboy BS and leave? I’d like to help you out. Which way did you come in?

        The new modus operandi of the astroturfer is to become part of the site scenery, commenting on all the articles, getting accepted as part of the MB scene, and then switching to denial mode when the opportunity arises, such as with this article. TRANSPARENT.

      • What are you talking about RickW-MB?

        Your BOM page also states that the national July 2015 average was 0.42 C above the long term mean – despite the “significant cold outbreak” affecting eastern states.

        Victoria’s July was reported in the media as the coldest in 20 years yet the cold rank in the table you linked to implies that we should see similar about once every four to five years.

      • Mate , you piss all over economic threads with your endless irrelevant uncalled for climate change hype. And I say a couple things on your (Astro) turf and your brain short circuits.

        I’ll gladly stick to economic threads if you just stick to climate threads. That way we will never cross paths, but you can’t do that.

        I don’t require a know nothing know it all dictating conversation on a website named “Macrobusiness” go find “Macroclimate” beacuse you won’t find me there.

        Essentially, what I’m saying is, go fart up your own ass.

      • Not a conspiracy. Just a lot of well-funded vested interests acting in a way that happens to benefit each of them individually, to the untold detriment of the rest of humanity. No conspiracy required; just amorality.

      • McPaddy is correct. There is amorality on clear display here, as well as stupidity. Denial is a combination of greed and low intelligence, either/or/both.

    • I know it’s not the done thing around here – but, on the bright side;
      – US CO2 peaked years ago
      – China coal is peaking or has peaked and total CO2 will peak well before 2030 – maybe sooner given they are clearly buggered..
      – India – we will see – but don’t forget they have a piddling GDP – so are not going to consume like China
      – renewable costs are falling fast (large PV well under $2/w) and there is now serious, large scale, cheap, unlimited cycle life energy storage inbound;
      http://www.genexpower.com.au/ (ASX GNX)
      and no it’s not just mines – actuall there is huge potential – off river – all over OZ
      http://www.australianenergystorage.com.au/site/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Tim-Forcey.pdf

      Mad, pointless consumption seems to be on the way out too … (Apple sales just fell for the first time in China)

      Anyway – I’m sure the Judean Peoples Front suicide squad is ready to find the darker side …

      • An optimistic view of India, is that having a developing nation’s under five mortality rate and especially infant mortality rate, their TFR of around 2.3 is already below replacement, and is still falling, so many of us will live to see India’s population peak as well as China’s.

      • India to practically bypass coal
        right to renewables

        Tony’s eyes glazing over, fingers in ears “LA LA LA I’M NOT LISTENING! ALL TEH COUNTRIES WANT TEH COALZ!”

  2. I was in Alaska in July. Probably normal for their summer but I was really surprised how warm it was.

    • Aussie1929MEMBER

      Yeah, neither side is going to convince each other and it detracts from what this website is really about.

      • Josh MoorreesMEMBER

        to be fair R2M they do have somewhat of a point. Climate change denialism (lets not call it scepticism as by any measure it isn’t) is very akin to a religion, with an irrational mindset required in order to maintain a viewpoint in the face of overwhelming evidence. If they have already made the decision to ignore facts then presenting facts and expecting them to change their views is pretty much the definition of insanity.

      • Not a religion, a job. See it as that, and then it all makes sense.

        Unless of course you think mining billionaires are going to leave opinion-leader sites like MB to their own devices? Naive much?

      • “Oooh, don’t talk about the biggest issue facing the economy eh, dumb fuck.”

        Yes it is, but how many constructive conversations have we had on here about climate change? How many people have listened to the facts and being persuaded by your agreements? Can you point to any? How is it going today?

        After spending two hours bitterly fighting with Mig about this issue (someone I actually liked talking to) all we ended up doing was insulting each other. I have never, not here, or on other online forums, ever seen a constructive conversation on this issue. My friends, intelligent and educated people, either don’t want to know about it or don’t accept the science. You can point them to credible research, guess what, they do not care. In other countries it might be different, but it’s maddening talking to Australians about this issue.

        By all means though, waste your time fighting with people that won’t listen, but some of us have more pleasurable and constructive things to do (like sticking paperclips under our nails).

      • RobW, do you have children? If so, how can you justify abandoning the field to deniers? 😯

      • “do you have children?”

        Nope.

        “If so, how can you justify abandoning the field to deniers?”

        Scientists have been warning us for decades that we have a serious problem. Seriously, the time for debate was 20-30 years ago. You’re an optimist, i get that (nobody is prefect), but I highly doubt the world has the political tools or the will to adequately deal with this particular problem.

      • Aussie1929MEMBER

        Revert2Mean – If you spent less time touching your kids and more time actively fighting for the cause, then maybe your tenacity for abusing people will be better used toward something constructive instead of your destructive remarks like the small person you are. Do something useful in your life, otherwise just take that pistol you have, point it towards your face and pull that trigger. I’m not sure what world you’re from, however, problems don’t get solved by abusing people. Pull that trigger fuckwit, you deserve it!

      • The Doomsday alarmist are much easier to spot. There the ones wearing the spit catching bibs, or the ones with the bulging wallets from all that thin air trading. Oh hang on the MSM and the banks are the good guys at MB.

      • “Robert”, doesn’t your boss know the jig is up? Nobody is listening to denial anymore. It’s finished. Give it up already!

  3. We need to stop consuming all of our non-renewable resources and energy sources so fast and so inefficiently and conserve them so we can buy enough time to change over to sustainable and renewable energy sources.

    The way the world is going is like some massive consumption party where everyone is too drunk to know what’s going on.

    • Yep lets deny the third world the chance to develop, after all is the clean environments of the west where highly pathogenic diseases are likely to evolve.

      • Yep, the trolls are here in force. Or is it just one fwit with a Tor browser and multiple accounts? πŸ™„

    • Didn’t you hear, the earth only came into existence when humans were kicked out of the garden of eden for burning the first piece of coal, thus starting the industrial revolution and the end of the world.

    • You buggers are not even trying anymore. You’re getting your money for nothing, and your clicks for free. πŸ™„

      • Oh shit, R2M do you beleive these are genuine paid astroturfers?

        If anything, I bet it is you R2M that has the vested interest in green energy. R2M how about you state how much $ you have invested in green tech shares etc?

        For the hell of it, I own a sizeable chunk in Carnegie energy. (Something I plan to dump prior to a labor goverment win πŸ˜‰ )

        I have zero interests in resources, other than puts. If anything I totaly benifit from climate change and yet I’ll refute your garbage every chance I get.

        For what it’s worth, again I state i actually respect you r2m, I enjoy the banter (when applicable in appropriate threads).

        R2M is a good guy, he cares deeply for the plight of the worlds people, but the man does not realise the implications to the worlds people if he and people like him are wrong by forcing their beleifs onto the worlds people. The morality of being wrong is not often looked at.

        I bet R2M was the first the grab his pitchfork in regards to Lomborg…. Sigh

      • Oh shit, R2M do you beleive these are genuine paid astroturfers?

        It’s impossible to say, but it is fair to say that anyone pushing a denial line now is either paid OR as thick as pigshit. Neither type should be welcome here. There’s enough crap on the internet already without having to wade through it on MB. 😑

      • ” If anything I totaly [sic] benifit [sic] from climate change …”

        If you think that, then it shows that you don’t really understand what you’re talking about

      • (Sic) Dr (sic) bob I mean the implication and heavy investment in green tech, do you understand context?

  4. Revert2Mean is a typical example of a young person who is nothing, owns nothing but uses nasty language to get his point across.

    • Hmm he’s old as the hills, from what I have gathered he has little grass around his home and so he comes hear to yell at “youse” kids to get off his (astro) turf πŸ˜‰

      • I’m probably old enough to be your father (50s). I have retired early because of substantial savings after a lifetime of international work. I am trained in science, stats and psychology. That’s all you need to know about me. Oh, and nobody pays me to say anything, and I have no Green investments, of any kind.

  5. I’m sorry RM to under estimate your age but even more please watch your language – btw I’m 65, I am nothing and have no millions but a little bit of dignity.

    • btw I’m 65

      That must be your IQ, not age.

      To other readers: these multiple deniers are all probably one script kiddy who uses the anonymous browser Tor and just swaps into multiple accounts. It’s a well known astroturfing technique. πŸ™„

  6. The graph shows that the world started warming well before humans started producing significant quantities of CO2 post WW2.
    Indeed the ice core records show a regular cycle of of warming and cooling of approximately 2deg in a 1000 year cycle that clearly explains the current warmth.
    Of course Alarmist still believe in the statistical trickery of Michael Mann’s infamous Hockey stick used in Big Al’s Propaganda film. (where i’m assuming Mr Gore didn’t declare his conflict of interest as a carbon trader).

    Of course the science is settled and no one is allowed to ask questions because thats not how things are done in science anymore!
    Just don’t mention how they can’t even explain where half the CO2 produced disappears too! It’s not like you would be concerned if you went to your bank and they couldn’t explain where half your bank balance had disappeared too! Did they mention the science was settled, did they mention they rely completely on computer modelling that is so bad the even the IPCC ignored their output when making their prediction of between 1.5 and 6 degrees of warming from a doubling of CO2. Did you miss the bit where THE IPCC JUST ADMITTED THEY DONT EVEN KNOW IF CO2 WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WARMING THAT THEY DEFINED AS 2 DEG C!!!


    • The graph shows that the world started warming well before humans started producing significant quantities of CO2 post WW2.

      Huh?

      Mate, humans have been producing very significant CO2 for at least 100 years before WWII. Maybe you missed the industrial revolution, the introduction of the steam locomotive, and the adoption of the steam turbine for electricity generation?

    • For those who are out of the reality loop where the planets climate has actually been rather variable for the last 4 billion years, the sun cycles are correlated with some of the climate changes we are observing. The latest news from this area of research is that solar UV (which varies a lot more than TSI) produces differences in the ozone concentration between the Equator and the poles. These changes result in a stratospheric temp gradient that drive the jet streams producing changes in albedo (cloud cover). High Solar activity results in a Zonal pattern with less air mass mixing, less clouds and warming, Low solar activity produces a meridional pattern, with distorted jet streams and increased storminess, more air mass mixing and more clouds with the resulting global cooling.
      When you consider the growing antarctic ice and associated cooling in the southern ocean, what lies in the wake of the current El Nino may be cause for concern.