In early August L-NP support has slumped 43% (down 3%) cf. ALP 57% (up 3%) after controversial Speaker Bronwyn Bishop resigned following a series of extravagant travel expense claims. Liberal backbencher Tony Smith (Victoria) has today been elected as the new Speaker to replace Bishop. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.
Primary support for the ALP has increased to 37% (up 1.5%) while L-NP support is down 2.5% to 36.5%. Support for the Greens continues to rise – now at 15.5% (up 0.5%) – the highest Greens vote for five years since August 2010, Palmer United Party 1% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8.5% (up 0.5%).
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, August 1/2 & 8/9, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,930 Australian electors.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 5pts to a record low of 86pts this week with 48.5% (up 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 34.5% (down 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders now supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 60.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 39.5% (down 4%); Men: ALP 53.5% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (down 2%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5% while 50-64yr olds now favour the ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and those aged 65+ narrowly favour the L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.
Analysis by States
The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in all 6 Australian States. Victoria: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%, South Australia: ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%, Western Australia: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Tasmania: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%, Queensland: ALP 54.5% cf. LNP 45.5% and New South Wales: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
In early August L-NP support has slumped 43% (down 3%) cf. ALP 57% (up 3%) after controversial Speaker Bronwyn Bishop resigned following a series of extravagant travel expense claims. Liberal backbencher Tony Smith (Victoria) has today been elected as the new Speaker to replace Bishop. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 5pts to a record low of 86pts this week with 48.5% (up 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 34.5% (down 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.
