Sources have told The Australian Financial Review that “footsoldiers” for both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, who are on opposite sides of the same-sex marriage debate, have been taking informal soundings in recent days, targeting colleagues who voted for Mr Abbott in the February leadership spill.
“They’re seeing if there’s shift in the mood since the last spill,” one MP said.
Mr Abbott still has strong support among his backbench, the majority of which backed him over gay marriage, but he faces a test on September 19, which was confirmed on Monday as the date of the Canning by-election, caused by the death of Western Australian Liberal MP Don Randall.
Last night, the cabinet sought to end the same-sex marriage split by discussing options for a national vote and when it would be held. But it failed to make a decision following tense discussions. Next week’s cabinet meeting has ben cancelled, meaning the issue could fester for another fortnight.
And from the SMH, Abbottalypse Royal Commission descends into farce:
Tony Abbott’s handpicked royal commissioner into trade union corruption, Dyson Heydon, will rule on Friday on whether an application from unions to disqualify him, should it be made, has merit.
The situation in which a royal commission will judge its own impartiality and fitness to continue comes as Mr Heydon, a former High Court judge, admitted to knowing of, and then forgetting about, Liberal Party ownership of a function he agreed to address later this month.
And from The Australian Abbottalypse Canning approaches:
A 10 per cent swing against the government has put next month’s by-election for the seat of Canning and Tony Abbott’s leadership on a knife edge.
The first poll of Canning voters taken since the death last month of Liberal MP Don Randall reveals the Coalition’s 11.8 per cent margin in the West Australian seat has almost evaporated. As formal campaigning begins, the government’s two-party-preferred lead stands at 51 per cent to Labor’s 49 per cent.
Newspoll also reveals the Prime Minister’s offer of a “people’s vote” on same-sex marriage has overwhelming support, with 78 per cent of Canning voters backing a plebiscite or referendum, including seven out of 10 Labor supporters.
The party needs to dump Abbott now. Coming in too late, such as Rudd did, will look cynical and rob the incoming team of any clear air to establish credentials. The rush to an election on a honeymoon nearly killed Gillard and did kill Rudd.
Replacing Abbott will, of course, cost the party support. But he is transparent disaster so it is either sink with him and look like a ship of fools, or retain the party’s brand of not replacing leaders mid-race to focus on 2019.
