Courtesy of Westpac:
The June quarter has some very significant ‘knowns’ but, as always, many ‘unknowns’ remain. The June quarter saw two large known forces push the CPI in one direction with few known significant offsets. But, as always, a large number of unknowns remain. Also we don’t have access to the data the ABS does and/or, in many cases, the survey process the ABS uses potentially causing many small errors along the way. One of the most obvious events in the last few quarters has been the extreme volatility in the pump price of automotive fuels. The national weekly average price for unleaded fuel hit a low of 104¢/ litre in the week ended February 1 before surging to 143.3¢/l by the week ended June 7. The has resulted in 12.2% fall in the average fuel price in Q1 which was followed by a 13% surge in Q2 to take petrol prices back to almost the average in Q4.
