Roy Morgan: When Bronny belted Tony

Fresh from Roy Morgan:

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In late July L-NP support is down 3% to 46% cf. ALP 54% (up 3%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten sided with the Government on their ‘turning back the boats policy’ and committed Labor policy to ensure 50% of Australia’s energy needs are met with renewable energy by 2030. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP is down 2.5% to 39% still clearly ahead of the ALP 35.5% (up 1%). Support for other parties shows the Greens at 15% (up 1.5%) – the highest Greens vote since September 2010, Palmer United Party 1% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8% (unchanged).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, July 18/19 & 25/26, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,316 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 0.5pts to 91pts this week with 46.5% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ (the highest for a year since July 2014) and 37.5% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders now supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%); Men: ALP 51.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 4%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 68.5% cf. L-NP 31.5%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% while 50-64yr olds now slightly favour the ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in 5 Australian States. South Australia: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Tasmania: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Queensland: ALP 51% cf. LNP 49%, while New South Wales narrowly favour the L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

Houses and Holes

Comments

  1. Don’t worry. A consistent front page of the Daily Telegraph with a Bill Shorten cartoon and a catchy headline will turn the blues around.

    Caaarrrn Murdoch. Give us bogans a reason to vote against our interests.

      • Won’t happen, even if we have to have a Labor-Green coalition to keep this simian wrecker away from the steering wheel 😡

        The only chance LNP have is to put Malcolm in charge, and for Malcolm to then change the policy dial from “Full Retard” to “Sane and Intelligent”, and now that’s looking unlikely. In fact, given the party sponsors, it will always be unlikely 🙁

      • @doctorX
        I agree. The party that wins the next election will win a shit sandwich.
        How any reader of MB would think otherwise is beyond me.
        There is a massive out of control B-triple careering down the highway at us, it’s name is Disaster

      • If I was Labor I wouldn’t want to win either. Then again I didn’t understand why they wanted to win the 2007 election. Either way, it’s the Coalition’s turn to deal with a recession. We’ll see how well that “better economic managers” facade holds up.

  2. The L-NP has a great future when it only has majority support from the 65+ demographic. True visionaries.

    • Wow!

      Tour comment prompted me to look at the analysis by age and it’s quite stark!

      • Yes, the only age group where the LNP is convincingly ahead is the over 65s, and the only state they’ve been doing well in is NSW. I reckon that’s largely a property boom / Baird factor.

    • FiftiesFibroShack

      Par for the course when your policies are developed by, and aimed toward, those with deteriorating mental faculties.

  3. Tassie TomMEMBER

    I still can’t say I like Bill Shorten, but my opinion of him has risen dramatically in the last month (from a very low base mind you.) It started at the Royal Commission – I though he spoke and explained things really well.

    Since then, and correct me if I’m wrong, but he seems to actually be behaving like a leader. He is setting discussion topics and stating positions – some that he knows will be attacked very effectively by the government. This is a vast improvement on his previous tactic of merely criticising the government (not very effectively) and repeating the findings of focus groups and internal polling 3 days after a topic has been raised.

    I think maybe some of the people polled by Roy Morgan might also be starting to see things this way – that maybe Prime Minister Shorten is something that might be alright after all.

    PS. The TPP in WA alone would lose the LNP the election if realised.

    • Terror Australis

      I agree.
      I think Shorten is a far shrewder politician than people give credit for.
      Abbott is at his most effective when he is raging AGAINST something, not leading.
      The Shorten Doctrine has been to play small target and let Abbott self destruct.
      To an extent, that has worked.

      But Shorten realises the ALP needs to release its own policies too, which is what this week at the ALP conference was all about.
      Labor can see an election in the next 12 months so they are shifting gears.

      Shorten is NOT an insiring politician. But i think he is playing the long game, and he is winning.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Exactly. Rupert and the ABC have done their best to smear him but he’s kept his nose clean while our Tony lurches from one disaster to another.

        Oz doesn’t need more showponies like Abbott or Rudd. It wants calm and collected snd that’s what Labor is trying to do. Same with the Greens with Di Natale snd Ludlam.

        The era of monumental narcissists will hopefully be over soon.

      • Tassie TomMEMBER

        @ Mining Bogan: Yes – haven’t Di Natale and Ludlam been a surprise packet of common-sense and reason? They almost look like a serious party now – almost time to shed the watermelon fringe like Rhiannon and Hansen-Young.

      • “Yes – haven’t Di Natale and Ludlam been a surprise packet of common-sense and reason?”

        A surprise to those who haven’t noticed or listened to them before, yes. I do agree that they are doing very well in their new roles.

      • Terror Australis

        “watermelons” always was a tired old cliche.
        Just look at people like Peter Whish-Wilson, Greens Senator for Tasmania.
        A graduate of the Australian Military Academy.
        Worked in in New York for one of the big Merchant Bank Companies (Morgan Stanley?)
        Lecturer in Finance and Economics.
        Now owns and runs a small business in Tasmania.

        Not your exactly a “watermelon-communist” resume, is it.

      • “Worked in in New York for one of the big Merchant Bank Companies (Morgan Stanley?)”

        “As far as stereotypes go, Whish-Wilson – who was handed the finance portfolio in the party’s reshuffle – has the most interesting background.

        He has a Masters in Economics and Finance. He’s worked for Merrill Lynch on Wall Street and Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. He made money as a stockbroker researching mining companies. He’s worked as a labourer in Western Australia’s mines.

        A number of years ago he turned his back on global finance because he found it unfulfilling. He moved his family to Tasmania to run a vineyard and go surfing instead. It was there that he became an activist when he joined the fight against Gunns Ltd, that infamous corporation with a Banana Republic-influence on Tasmania’s political system.”

      • These comments about the Greens make Shorten’s recent announcement about renewables easier to understand. He’s aware of the huge threat the Greens pose to Labor, and is trying to grab some votes back. Too bad Labor’s plans are only “aspirational” though!

      • AB you guys are dreaming. Greens garner 10-12% of the vote at the best of times. They are the most easily pilloried of the parties, a combined onslaught from LibLab and they’re dead meat. Removing the Green element was a smart move, too little genuine interest in the electorate. Nonetheless, Greens remain saddled with an boat refugee policy that has no electoral appeal, this alone can sink them.

        Sure, they have some inner urban appeal. They’ve quite cunningly targeted power in the Senate, happy to disregard the democratic wishes of the bulk of the electorate and flex a bit of muscle in the House of Unrepresentative Swill, we all knew those types of kids at school…they weren’t your mates and you never invited them to parties.

      • I’m not dreaming of anything 3d (well nothing politics-related anyway).

        I wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens do increase their vote slightly, possibly up to 15%, and take one or two more lower house seats in the next decade or so. I don’t however expect them to become a third main party in my lifetime though I do hope they force Labor to move leftwards.

        I think that the Greens along with good independent candidates (McGowan in Indi for example – yes, I know Mirabella was a Liberal) are going to give the Mining not Farming party (formerly known as the Nationals) a hard time though.

        Edit: “They’ve quite cunningly targeted power in the Senate, happy to disregard the democratic wishes of the bulk of the electorate…”

        I’m happy to discuss electoral reform if you’d like. Let’s start with a system that sees the Nationals win 9 HOR seats with 4.3% of the primary vote as compared to the Greens with 8.6% of the vote who won 1 seat.

      • Terror Australis

        I’m hopeful Rhiannon won’t be on the Greens Senate ticket next year.
        I admire SHY for the work she has done in a tough portfolio. Australians have been well brainwashed that:
        Asylum Seeker =Muslim = Potential Terrorist.

      • AB you guys are dreaming. Greens garner 10-12% of the vote at the best of times

        Whoa! Even our contrarian indicator is suggesting Green success! 😎

      • Terror Australis

        I think the Greens are a BIG chance to pick up the seats of Melbourne Port and Richmond (Far North NSW coast) at the next election. Brisbane and Freemantle are probably out of reach but with a good local candidate they could make it a marginal Greens-v-LNP constituency.
        Sydney and Grayndler are probably safe too but AS SOON AS Plibersek and Albo call it quits, those seats are falling to the Greens.

        So within a couple of electoral cycles I can see the Australia Greens having a permanent “lock” on 6 or 7 lower house seats and 12 or more Senators making them a decisive balance of power force. Not bad for a party that barely existed 20 years ago.

      • “So within a couple of electoral cycles I can see the Australia Greens having a permanent “lock” on 6 or 7 lower house seats and 12 or more Senators making them a decisive balance of power force.”

        I’d agree with that, particularly if Labor continues to be the Claytons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claytons) Coalition party.

      • Shorten’s problem is communication. He has to stop delivering the zingers for the nightly news, flanked about a couple of nodders. Its awful, its fake, it reeks of insincerity. He’s a bit better when he’s rallying the ALP troops, but then he just sounds like he’s about to burst a blood vessel. He needs to re-learn how to speak like a normal person. Surely there’s someone out there who can teach politicians to do this?

        3d hates the Greens. Absolutely loathes them. He has a special well of hatred just for Ludlum, because he’s from WA and is a gifted communicator. That alone should inform your political choices for the 2016 election.

      • Terror Australis

        hehe.
        3D vs The Greens.

        “First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win” – Gandhi..

      • The Greens are unfairly disadvantaged by the electoral system of single member electorates which ensures the dominance of two parties.
        Proportional Representation in multi-member electorates as in NZ and Germany enables small parties to have representation which reflects their support base. eg only 1 Green MP in the Federal Parliament instead of 13 with PR according to this analysis from a Crikey 31/3/14/article:

        http://i.imgur.com/mw9BvTD.png

        Unfortunately the two party system would be preferred by both Libs and ALP and electoral systems make a dry topic so hard to get the population interested. I like this John Cleese video from the Proportional Representation Society of Australia website:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSUKMa1cYHk

  4. Move will need to be confirmed by future polls. Shift is still within the margin of error.

  5. More good news from Essential in Crikey today.

    “Just 19% of voters think Bronwyn Bishop should remain as Speaker; 25% think she should stand down while an investigation is conducted, 19% think she should simply resign as Speaker. And another 24% think she should quit Parliament entirely.

    That includes 11% of Liberal voters who want her gone altogether, and another 14% who want her to quit as Speaker. Bishop is now embroiled in another scandal over her use of taxpayer funds to travel to the wedding of one-time hard-right colleague Sophie Mirabella, for which Tony Abbott himself repaid travel entitlements.”

    And perhaps a message for Electricity Bill.

    “Worse, voters explicitly reject the government’s attempts to link a carbon price with electricity price rises. Only 21% of voters agree the carbon price had a big impact on electricity prices.

    More than 50% of Liberal voters don’t believe the carbon price had a big impact on prices, and over 60% of all voters say it had only a small or no impact.”

    • Bronny’s really stuffed up. Pity, best Speaker in years. She’s a good example of the sense of entitlement that creeps into pollies self perception and a good example a case could be made for limited terms (say max 3) – Parliament is rife with similar, she’s not alone.

      • “She’s a good example of the sense of entitlement that creeps into pollies self perception…”

        Bullshit. She’s always been like that.

        http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishops-expensive-love-affair-with-charter-flights-began-nearly-two-decades-ago-20150721-gigbmu.html

        Bronwyn Bishop’s love affair with charter flights began nearly two decades ago when she was a junior minister in the Howard government, with the now Speaker amassing a near $140,000 bill over four years.

        The $139,196.01 outlay is close to seven times the amount spent by two other then-junior ministers — Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey — on charter flights in the same January 1998 to December 2001 period

      • AB, Bronny had already been a pollie for more than a decade (NSW Senate and 1994 Federally). If she’d been limited to two or three terms taxpayers would’ve saved big bucks (good) but missed out on Speakership of the century (bad).

        Three elections and then you’re out. Two if in six year terms in the Senate. No lifetime pension.