Fresh from Roy Morgan:
In late July L-NP support is down 3% to 46% cf. ALP 54% (up 3%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten sided with the Government on their ‘turning back the boats policy’ and committed Labor policy to ensure 50% of Australia’s energy needs are met with renewable energy by 2030. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.
Primary support for the L-NP is down 2.5% to 39% still clearly ahead of the ALP 35.5% (up 1%). Support for other parties shows the Greens at 15% (up 1.5%) – the highest Greens vote since September 2010, Palmer United Party 1% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8% (unchanged).
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, July 18/19 & 25/26, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,316 Australian electors.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 0.5pts to 91pts this week with 46.5% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ (the highest for a year since July 2014) and 37.5% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders now supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%); Men: ALP 51.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 4%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 68.5% cf. L-NP 31.5%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% while 50-64yr olds now slightly favour the ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%.
Analysis by States
The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in 5 Australian States. South Australia: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Tasmania: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Queensland: ALP 51% cf. LNP 49%, while New South Wales narrowly favour the L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.