Roy Morgan: When Bronny belted Tony

Advertisement

Fresh from Roy Morgan:

unnamed

In late July L-NP support is down 3% to 46% cf. ALP 54% (up 3%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten sided with the Government on their ‘turning back the boats policy’ and committed Labor policy to ensure 50% of Australia’s energy needs are met with renewable energy by 2030. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP is down 2.5% to 39% still clearly ahead of the ALP 35.5% (up 1%). Support for other parties shows the Greens at 15% (up 1.5%) – the highest Greens vote since September 2010, Palmer United Party 1% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8% (unchanged).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, July 18/19 & 25/26, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,316 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 0.5pts to 91pts this week with 46.5% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ (the highest for a year since July 2014) and 37.5% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders now supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%); Men: ALP 51.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 4%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 68.5% cf. L-NP 31.5%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% while 50-64yr olds now slightly favour the ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in 5 Australian States. South Australia: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Tasmania: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Queensland: ALP 51% cf. LNP 49%, while New South Wales narrowly favour the L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.