EZ gives Greece one last chance, lol

From the FT:

Athens will be given a final chance to present a new reform plan to eurozone leaders on Tuesday night despite a hardening attitude to Greece in many capitals after the emphatic rejection of previous bailout terms in Sunday’s referendum.

But eurozone officials said leaders were unlikely to agree to restart rescue talks to keep Greece in the currency union at a hastily convened summit in Brussels, despite the Greek overture.

The European Central Bank tightened the screw on cash-starved Greek banks on Monday evening when it required them to stump up more assets in exchange for emergency loans. It did not reveal the scale of its adjustment to the collateral rules, but expects all four of Greece’s largest banks to retain access to the loans. It kept the cap on these loans at a total of €89bn.

How many last chances does that make?

Meanwhile, every man  and his dog wants to call BTFD, from Business Spectator:

“Many would see this as a buying opportunity,” says BT Financial Group chief economist Chris Caton. “Greece will be an ongoing source of volatility but, given its economic size and the very limited exposure of the private sector to its debt, it’s very difficult to see the situation becoming calamitous.”

“It increasingly looks like Greece is the odd man out,” says AMP head of investment strategy Shane Oliver. While Portugal and Ireland and several other Eurozone countries have come through a mix of austerity and reforms without major political ructions, Greece is really a “special case,” he says.

Memo to Shane, Portugal and Ireland have done none of the restructuring that Greece has done and have been bailed out by the ECB. The AFR has more:

Perpetual global equities portfolio manager Garry Laurence said however that Greece itself, at only 2 per cent of Europrean GDP, was a very small part of the global economy.

“It’s just creating a lot of uncertainty and what you’re seeing is risk premiums starting to rise,” he said.

“The uncertainty in global markets is around what the ramifications are of Greece exiting and how much debt they actually owe, and who owns that debt, and what it all means.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if they do agree on something but if they really do default, its not so significant to global GDP growth,” Mr Laurence said.

Ausbil chief economist Jim Chronis said developments from Greece was not news to change asset markets or asset allocation.

“The thing that is new is that we know is the US is recovering quite well and rates will increase,” he said.

“You should be really focusing on the US and when they hike rates. It’s a question of will they do it.”

That’s depends upon what your allocations are. If you are long a falling Australian dollar, commodity prices and weakening domestic demand then you’re allocations are right.

Whether it is has a wider impact will depend upon how the probable default plays out. The amounts are huge and will cause peripheral interest rates to rise. Private banks have been well prepared in direct terms, from Barclays:

exposure to greek banks_0

But that’s only direct exposure. The public liabilities are huge:

Barc explosure table_0

Nearly all of the Eurozone’s many fiscal firewalls and special funds are just shells. They have no money in reality but will need it if Greece defaults:

The backstops are not entirely infallible

Some of the backstops, if needed, are either untested or incomplete. One example might be the new banking union. At present, the €55bn resolution fund is still 95% unfunded, deposit guarantee schemes are still mostly ex-post funded and there is still no pan-European deposit insurance. More importantly, holdings of peripheral debt on domestic bank balance sheets are rising substantially in recent years. In Italy and Spain, for instance, domestic government bonds as a percent of total bank assets have risen from 1.5% and 2.3% respectively in 2009, to 6.5% and 7.8% at end 2014 and February 2015 respectively. Any period of prolonged, significant peripheral stress would almost surely lead to some, perhaps significant, widening in bank credit spreads.

As for the ECB’s OMT programme, it has never been tested and it is not quite the pure “lender of last resort” backstop many in the market have come to believe it to be. To start, ECB OMT purchases come with significant conditionality. Any country seeking this assistance must apply for a programme, which would almost surely come with fiscal and structural reform prescriptions.

Greek exit and an official sector default would be new precedents

The biggest risk for contagion, in our view, is that the Greek “no” vote would most likely set in motion two precedents – an exit and default of official sector debt – that have never really been stress tested in the euro zone, either technically, or perhaps more importantly, politically.

Greek default would have a non-negligible effect on EA balance sheets… 

As we have said in the past, a default on official sector debt would be large, but technically manageable, at about EUR195bn in bilateral loans and EFSF/ESM loans. In addition, SMP bonds held by the ECB amount to EUR27.7bn and Intra Eurosystem liabilities (mainly Target 2) amount to EUR118bn. Altogether, the official exposure to Greece amounts to about EUR340bn, nearly 3.5% of EA’s GDP, sizeable but probably manageable

… while a default opens up a host of political risks that remain unanswered

A default on the European loans could create considerable political backlash in EA countries against further support for periphery economies. Right-wing parties, such as AfD in Germany, Front National in France, Party of Freedom in the Netherlands, and True Finns in Finland, have repeatedly opposed bail-outs to periphery countries, especially to Greece. But even more moderate parties may question the bail-out mechanisms as the Greek default of 2012 was meant to be a one-off. Smaller countries are also unlikely to take it lightly as; as a percentage of their country GDPs, these countries would bear a larger share of the burden (eg, the Baltic countries).

If Greece exits and defaults big there will be fiscal chaos in Europe. The ECB can contain some of it (so long as it is bailed out!) but you just don’t where the next mole will pop up.

What we do know is one of the two biggest currencies in the world suddenly has a large fissure running right through the middle of its institutional structure and nobody knows how it will be closed. Treating that as simple BTFD is BFS.

 

David Llewellyn-Smith

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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Comments

  1. notsofastMEMBER

    The Trokia gives the Euro one last chance. The Trokia knows that Greece and its people would be (much) better served returning to the Drachma…

    • Yes, but they do not know that they would be better with Drachma. And they just want to not pay their debt, but still be left in the Euro zone. They do not pay taxes, but want other taxpayers in Europe to pay their debt. There must be some balance when talking about what is Greece’s fault and what is EU fault. Greece has to reform otherwise they won’t be able to grow even under the Drachma. Without paying taxes, no matter what curruency would be, their huge public sector wouldn’t be able to function. Dito.

    • There are no rules in place for a state exiting the EMU, which is stunning in it’s absolute lack of foresight. I saw an interview with Yanis V a few days ago where he stated they no longer have an ability to print drachma. They do have the ability to print and stamp 20 euro and run a dual (Greek) euro which would get the ATM’s going, but hard currency is one thing, an entire banking system restructure around a new currency is a long task.

  2. HnH do we know as to what is the Australian bank’s exposure to Greece / EU parties and how this is going to affect their funding given that they rely more on overseas funding for their lending.

    • notsofastMEMBER

      The problem for Australia is that their banks don’t only rely on overseas funding to fund their lending, they have borrowed so heavily that they rely on overseas funding to service those overseas debts…

    • Josh MoorreesMEMBER

      given most of the debt is now in public sheets minimal but as noted the main risk would be an increase in bond rates generally from contagion leading to increased borrowing costs for our banks.

  3. This is like a running sore. The primary objective of the European Central Bank according to the rules is to maintain price stability. When can we expect the ECB to start behaving like a central bank and release the ELA to keep the Greek banks operating?
    Aren’t central banks meant to be above political influence? Why is the ECB joining with creditors running a political agenda “demanding” fiscal reform in Greece.
    Why the hollow silence from the marble halls of the IMF? Is Lagarde having family leave or are there more important matters to be attended? /sarc………
    60% of the debt is held by 18 states (15% Italy 10% Spain) and 40% by Germany and France. Last night Italy and Spain supported some form of debt restructure, but this morning Merkel is meeting Hollande for “more talks” with Schauble tut tutting in the corridor. So the “hardline” we keep hearing about from creitors is not as hard as we have been led to believe. Two states are blocking the whole resolution and they hold a minority of total debt.

    Disgraceful, if not illegal behaviour from the ECB. Despicable behaviour from France and Germany. It’s time this pantomime was ended.

    • I posted this last night, but it’s worth reposting here………..the elephant in the room scenario

      Here’s some really scary shit from Yves Smith:
      “Until Sunday afternoon it was a close-run thing. The Yes and No votes were equally balanced, and the margin between them razor thin. At the start of the morning, Rupert Murdoch’s London Times claimed “Greek security forces have drawn up a secret plan to deploy the army alongside special riot police to contain possible civil unrest after today’s referendum on the country’s future in Europe. Codenamed Nemesis, it makes provision for troops to patrol large cities if there is widespread and prolonged public disorder. Details of the plan emerged as polls showed the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ camps neck and neck.” Greek officers don’t speak to the Murdoch press; British and US government agents do.”

      Full post at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/07/nulands-nemesis-will-greece-be-destroyed-to-save-her-from-russia-like-ukraine.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

      • Most “Greek” media was for a YES vote and scaremongering. Controlled by US assets the same way German media is i suppose. Good thing the youth of Greece came to vote, they are unemployed and doing it harsh already, they want to stick it to the Troika and i say go for it!

  4. Okay. So Greece goes it alone and uses leftover souvlaki denominated as currency to facilitate intra country trade. Isn’t that the LAST thing that currency issuers want? Someone(s) issuing tradeable ‘currency’ that is outside the control of their printing press? Bitcoin gave the establishment enough of a heartache. But allowing a country to return to a form of barter-via-promissory notes must be worse for them? Most countries had locally issues of currency prior to Central Bank monopolisation, and they just might head back in that direction!

    • But the point is that Greece shouldn’t have to go it alone. Because the ECB is acting outside of it’s charter….I think the treaty calls it “tasks” and is playing politics despite being an unelected authority all of this has come to pass. It’s not about parallel currencies or IOU’s it’s about a central bank acting in it’s primary role of providing stability in the banking sector. Greece don’t want to bust the euro or issue drachma, they just want a debt rearrangement with their creditors.

  5. There are 14 different local currencies already operating in Greece. Greek families are close and help each other out. These ties will sustain them far better than a collapse say in Belgium (which no one is talking about). These barter/credit currencies like TEM have taken off and allow people to get the basics. Greece has been a puppet state for 150 years. Finally they will be able to stand on their own 2 feet and I think will prosper with their own currency

    • Heisenberg,

      From the history of the last 100 years where does this scenario pan out, south America, Mexico, central America, Africa, where?

      • @R2M…. good grief that bait and switch wingnut libertarian Chris Martenson, up the meds mate. “Peak Prosperity” is a tell as is stuff like “Libertarian Purity Test” …. shezzz…. the guy is a pathologist with an MBA.

        Skippy…. they have you coming and going…. sigh…. take this course… cough… indoctrination… lulz look into my eye~

      • First Libertarian I’ve met who accepts the science on AGW, skip.

        Ever consider that you are wearing ideological blinkers?

      • Mate ever heard the term selling your book?

        By Stacy Curtin
        August 15, 2012 10:58 AM
        Daily Ticker

        Gold $2,500: The Precious Metal Is Headed for a Breakout, Says Martenson

        Skippy…. seriously R2M every great scam needs a hook, that his mob use AGW to drive fear into the soft minded herd is just absurdly delicious, can’t make shit like this up, Life imitates Art far more than Art imitates Life thingy, the world is going to end buy gold now, insert insane mig-i cackle….

      • R2M,

        If your going to label me do put a name to it and stop insinuating, its clumsy rhetoric. If you want to call not being sucked in by con artists repulsive cynicism, then that’s your personal opinion.

        “The celebration is on as headlines of “Obama Rejects Keystone Pipeline” shoot across the screens, and Mckibben, like a good little foot soldier isn’t missing a beat to rally the troops around the HOPE inspiring president. The Rockefeller front group and its flock rally to the news of Obama coming through in the clutch. They talk of tar sands and coal and fracking and the carbon foot print but never a mention of the “safe and clean” nuclear power from these folks. The very real dangers of our decrepit and crumbling nuclear power industry aren’t on Bill Mckibben’s radar screen it seems and just as with his buddy Al Gore, the issue of carbon seems solely on the radar superficially, maybe as a way to sell more books? One has to wonder.”

        http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/01/19/the-great-pipeline-scam/

        Yeah hes about as lefty as Obama, guess when some are so far to the right, everything else is lefty, Obama is actually to the right of Eisenhower from a historical perspective, funny how that works… eh.

        Skippy… So that leaves about two scenarios, one you have fallen into a narrative and cant get out [atlas shrugs ref] or your quite aware of the agenda your pushing and using the same ploys as those you reference.

      • Your inferences (that McKibben is a righty, just out to sell books, and trying to con people) is utterly risible. It’s ridiculous, Skippy. I’m starting to see you as just as unhinged as mig was. Frankly, given your seemingly coherent championing of the science on climate in the past, I am surprised now that you show your true colours 😯

      • More unfounded accusations served up with pejorative rhetorical flourishes is not solid footing or should be confused with informed argumentation.

        Seems you did not read the link to CP… here let me help…

        “The Rockefellers and Obama have found a new front man in Bill Mckibben it seems. All 350.org will do is spread the word to its minions about this single issue while continuing to ignore the grim reality of the Tar Sands that are already being refined all across this country, the dangers of Nuclear Power and a whole host of energy fiascos. It was all set up to pull in the most gullible of the Big environmental groups under one big tent of blinded voters. America is really lost and it is doubtful that it will ever find its way. Bill Moyers recently said that “one of the biggest changes in my lifetime is that the delusional is no longer marginal. It has come in from the fringe, to sit at the seat of power in the Oval Office and in Congress,” and thanks to the likes of the delusional environmentalists that continue to uphold this system, this reality will be difficult to remedy. Hopefully Bill Mckibben won’t prove to be as naive as he seems and will lead his new found flock in a more resistant direction than rubber stamping the delusional reality that he is so far only feeding.”

        Now if you want a real leftie perspective on Mckibben’s dem – environmentalist kettleing activity’s try this on for size….

        “New Delusion for 2012: SumOfUs

        …Like all good Imperialists, the Philanthropoids set themselves the task of creating and training an international cadre that believed that Capitalism, and by extension the hegemony of the United States, was in their own self-interest…. In the United States, as we have seen, corporate-endowed foundations spawned the culture of NGOs…. — Arundhati Roy, Capitalism: A Ghost Story

        New to the growing spiderweb of the interconnected non-profit industrial complex is SumOfUs. Behind this web you will find the most notorious players within the so-called movement – an array of bright green “climate wealth” opportunists, believers of the illusory “green” economy.

        SumOfUs is a global movement of consumers, investors, and workers all around the world, standing together to hold corporations accountable for their actions and forge a new, sustainable and just path for our global economy. It’s not going to be fast or easy. But if enough of us come together, we can make a real difference.

        On the twitter account (first “tweet” November 14, 2011), SumOfUs goes one step further, stating:

        We are a movement of consumers, workers and shareholders speaking with one voice to counterbalance the growing power of large corporations.

        SumOfUs states:

        We’ve witnessed again and again what happens when powerful corporations get their way: Environmental and health catastrophes like Fukushima and the BP oil disaster; A global financial crisis that destroys entire economies; Rising food prices and starving children; Families from Kalamazoo to Timbuktu losing their houses and land; Poisons pouring into our air and water. You name it, corporations are behind it. But rather than being held accountable – their CEOs are often walking away with bonuses. And these injustices are largely left to continue unabated. But the world doesn’t have to be this way. And here’s the secret: We own the corporations that are causing all these problems. They rely on us to buy their products. They count on us to buy their stock. They need us to work for them. They need us to continue to elect governments that let them get away with murder. We are SumOfUs, and we’re not going to take it anymore.

        So rather than campaign on citizens divesting, that the rights for corporations be abolished, that private companies become nationalized, that citizens work together to form their own co-operatives, and that society must unite in one goal of starving the corporate machine, SumOfUs believes we further our power as “consumers” by feeding the very system that is destroying us. All while exclaiming “We’re not going to take it anymore!” SumOfUs would have us believe that “we” – collectively, as “consumers” continuing to purchase the corporations’ products, continuing to purchase their stock, continuing, indefinitely, to work for the corporations destroying us, continuing to re-elect politicians (all controlled by a ruling hierarchy) – that we can, in fact, make the corporations “do the right thing.” This is not only a false premise, it is an assertion of complete grandiose delusion. Further, we have been hearing “we’re not going to take it anymore” from the environmental “movement” for over three decades. In this time, emissions have increased over 40% while we stand on the precipice of irreversible, cataclysmic, accelerating environmental collapse of epic proportions. SumOfUs states it is “a new world-wide movement for a better global economy” that stands for: Fair treatment of workers and the right of every human being to make a living, safely and ethically, for themselves and their family; The right of ordinary consumers to products that are produced and marketed ethically, sustainably and transparently; and “Business models that put people and the planet first instead of being driven by shortsighted greed.” They then tell the “consumer”: “Yeah, take that deep breath, close your eyes and imagine what kind of a world that could be – and then crash back to this one.” What SumOfUs doesn’t tell you and never will tell you, is that 1) this vision is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to achieve under the global industrialized capitalist economic system, and 2) our current economic system is absolutely dependent upon the exploitation of both people and planet to simply continue its existence. SumOfUs wishes to convince you that this suicidal economic system can be reformed. That, like Obama, corporations can be made “to do the right thing” if only we ask nicely. Yet, let’s be clear and cast all denial aside – one cannot reform an abomination. SumOfUs, along with all the rest in the non-profit industrial complex, is banking on your hopeful ignorance, hoping you will continue to swallow their lies and join them in the game of delusion where fantasy reigns.”

        “The first campaign for SumOfUs sounds suspiciously familiar. November 29, 2011, “SumOfUs: Petition urges Google to quit the U.S. Chamber of Commerce” Excerpt: “[SumOfUs] correctly point out that in 2009 Apple quit the Chamber over environmental concerns, while Nike quit the board of the Chamber shortly after, and Yahoo recently quit over internet censorship legislation.” The “U.S. Chamber Doesn’t Speak For Me” (http://chamber.350.org/) was spawned from350.org‘s attempt to capitalize on and recruit business. The poster available for 350.orgbusiness partners states: “Our mission is to inspire the world to rise to the challenge of the climate crisis – to create a new sense of urgency and of possibility for our planet. Our focus is on the number 350 – as in parts per million CO2. If we can’t get below that, scientists say, the damage we’re already seeing from global warming will continue and accelerate. But 350 is more than a number – it’s a symbol of where we need to head as a planet.” “… Make a product with a 350 logo and educate people on the science of 350 – how Camelback did it.

        Yet, the “science” of 350 ppm put forward by 350.org is made irrelevant. That350.org/1sky/Chamber350 refuses to acknowledge that infinite growth, the integral pivotal component of the global industrialized capitalist economic system is not compatible in any way with reversing atmospheric concentration of CO2 is somewhat beyond belief. And yet, we are expected to embrace such illusion. Common sense dictates that industrialized production, most instrumental to the global capitalist economic system, can only further destroy our shared environment. The above Camelback “success,” which 350.org/1sky/Chamber350 highlights as one such “solution” to climate change, clearly demonstrates the outright denial of the very root causes of our multiple escalating crisis by such liberal left “leaders.” What 350.org/1Sky or the new SumOfUs has never, nor will ever, state is the truth – that 350 ppm (and definitely the pre-industrialized levels of 280 ppm called for by the People’s Agreement and the State of Bolivia) can never and will never be achieved under the global industrialized capitalist system. Further, ethics and the global industrialised capitalist system – whereby violence is inherently built into the system – by way of decimation to the planet and exploitation of those most vulnerable, can never, and will never, co-exist. To believe so is to believe in fairy tales. The fact is, aside from good publicity for these corporate monoliths”

        http://politicalcontext.org/blog/2012/03/sumofus-are-corporate-whores-some-of-us-are-not/

        I think your sociopolitical ideological scope is in need of adjustment R2M, sadly it seems your take on climate is blinkered or book ended by opportunism and prosperity w/ sprinkling with green washing.

        Skippy… Now I’m no rabid ideological sort and understand how difficult it is to transition society, without fracturing it, in the process, and the time needed, but, it is my sincere hope that we can. As such I’m quite prickly when it comes to sorts that bray on about AGW yet at the same time the virtuousness of gold, especially due the negative externalities of the extraction process.

      • No need to quote a full article here, Skip, I did read it but saw nothing but more cynicism and far left ravings.

        I think your sociopolitical ideological scope is in need of adjustment R2M, sadly it seems your take on climate is blinkered or book ended by opportunism and prosperity w/ sprinkling with green washing.

        Opportunism? Because I am interested in survival for me and mine? Guilty as charged then, Saint Skippy. But don’t come to me for help when TSHTF. You’re the grasshopper, I’m the ant 😯

        Now I’m no rabid ideological sort and understand how difficult it is to transition society, without fracturing it, in the process, and the time needed, but, it is my sincere hope that we can.

        Ah, I get it, you’re hooked on hopium and you castigate those who take action, like me. Methinks you have a few kangaroos loose in the top paddock, Skippy 😉

        As such I’m quite prickly when it comes to sorts that bray on about AGW yet at the same time the virtuousness of gold, especially due the negative externalities of the extraction process.

        I agree that there is some cognitive dissonance for me there, but I reckon that they’re going to extract it whether I like it or not, and its future is bright in “the long emergency” that’s coming, so I invested in it. So sue me.

      • Um… R2M you straying from the material and doing a mig-i focusing on little old me… do try to keep up and address the information which challenges your authors assertions, which you use to provide gravitas to your opinions.

        Skippy…. I have shown cause wrt to your two champions to be heavily discounted, you on the other hand make chit chat about me.

      • You have shown nothing about the people I have mentioned other than linking to an opinion piece by a far lefty who hates Obama and anyone who supports him. Weak, not deserving an answer. I know McKibben to be an honest man of principle, since I’ve followed his books and activities for years and years.

      • @R2M,

        Exclusive: How Obama’s Early Career Success Was Built on Fronting for Chicago Real Estate and Finance
        Posted on May 4, 2012 by Yves Smith

        Barack Obama remains an icon to many on what passes for the left in America despite incontrovertible evidence that he does not represent their interests. There are many contributing factors, including his considerable skills as a speaker and his programmatic effort to neuter liberal critics by getting their funding cut.

        A central component of the seemingly impenetrable Obama mythology is his personal history: a black man, son of a broken home, who nevertheless got on the fast track to financial success by becoming editor of the Harvard Law Review, but turned instead to working with and later representing a particularly disadvantaged community, the South Side of Chicago.

        Even so, this story does not quite add up. Why did Obama not follow the usual, well greased path of becoming a Supreme Court clerk, and seeking to exert influence through the Washington doors that would have opened up to him after that stint?

        A remarkable speech by Robert Fitch puts Obama’s early career in a new perspective that explains the man we see now in the Oval Office: one who pretends to befriend ordinary people but sells them out again and again to wealthy, powerful interests – the banks, big Pharma and health insurers, and lately, the fracking-industrial complex.

        Fitch, who died last year, was an academic and journalist, well regarded for his forensic and archival work, as described by Doug Henwood in an obituary in the Nation. He is best known for his book Solidarity for Sale, which chronicled corruption in American unions, but his work that is germane to his analysis of Obama is Assassination of New York. In that, he documented the concerted efforts by powerful real estate and financial interests to drive manufacturing and low-income renters out of Manhattan so they could turn it over to office and residential space for high income professionals.

        Fitch gave his remarkable speech before an unlikely audience at an unlikely time: the Harlem Tenants Association in November 2008, hard on the heels of Obama’s electrifying presidential win. The first part contains his prescient prediction: that Obama’s Third Way stance, that we all need to put our differences aside and get along, was tantamount to advocating the interests of the wealthy, since they seldom give anything to the have-nots without a fight.

        That discussion alone is reason to read the piece. But the important part is his description of the role that Obama played in the redevelopment of the near South Side of Chicago, and how he and other middle class blacks, including Valerie Jarrett and his wife Michelle, advanced at the expense of poor blacks by aligning themselves with what Fitch calls “friendly FIRE”: powerful real estate players like the Pritzkers and the Crown family, major banks, the University of Chicago, as well as non-profit community developers and real estate reverends.

        Don’t take my word for it. Download the speech and read it. And then circulate it widely. And thank Michael Hudson, Fitch’s friend for over 30 years, for making this document available.

        http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/05/exclusive-how-obamas-early-career-succes-was-built-on-fronting-for-chicago-real-estate-and-finance.html

        Your hand waving again r2m…. “You have shown nothing about the people I have mentioned other than linking to an opinion piece by a far lefty who hates Obama and anyone who supports him.”

        Pejorative declarations “You have shown nothing about the people I have mentioned” followed by specious definitions “other than linking to an opinion piece by a far lefty who hates Obama and anyone who supports him.”

        In the first case I did show you two unpacked chain of events, which were supported by evidence based historical back drops. The first from CP which could hardly be called far left where as the second was, I purposely arranged it that way to give it perspective as compared to your opinion on Mckibben’s lefty posing. In the second case with Martenson’s gold buggery and rampant fundie libertarianism – Libertarian Purity Test [so gestapo its actually funny] who wraps himself in environmentalist platitudes to sell his snake oil.

        “Weak, not deserving an answer.” Oh the glibertarian single hits just keep spinning, Weak is unpacking actual events as well as the circular logic deployed to obfuscate its actual intent? “Not Deserving” is a strange bit of syntax which attempt to project an authority status where there is none, more like a I’ve got no game so here’s mud in your eye.

        Ohhh and the best for last…. “I know McKibben to be an honest man of principle, since I’ve followed his books and activities for years and years.”

        So your going to tell me you have a personal relationship with McKibben, which affords you the wherefore all to judge if he is honest and principled, as a self acclaimed follower for some years? Sounds more like devotion than objectivity imo.

        Last but not least your Obama thingy… see above.. do you still stand by your opinion[?], that’s no to forget his pushing Fast track through for the TTP. So your pro TTP now R2M?

        Skippy…. bonus link – http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/05/barack-obama-the-great-deceiver.html

        PS. So R2M is Yves Smith et al a pack of commies in your world view?

      • Skippy, I carry no water for Obama. None. Please stop trying to nail me by association.

        In the first case I did show you two unpacked chain of events, which were supported by evidence based historical back drops.

        All you showed (by linking) was one jaundiced view of events, nothing definitive, and certainly not a mainstream opinion. Try again: prove to me that Martenson is a Libertarian, from his own mouth, and that McKibben has ulterior motives. No more links to opinion pieces that would not be allowed as sources in Wikipedia. And no more links or references to what some punter posted at the Peak Prosperity forum 🙄

      • Per Chris Martenson – “First Libertarian I’ve met who accepts the science on AGW, skip.” your words R2M. Other wise you can just goggle it and find him on just about every glibertarian financial site.

        So in your opinion Yves Smith et al is not fit for wiki?

        Skippy…. how many times can one be shown to be completely wrong and still bloviate… your creditability is all over the floor yet you keep wanking… never directly addressing the evidence put right under your nose… but obfuscate, misdirect, project flaccid authority, lay claim to truth without any validity save you say so, its mental.

        PS. no nails need as its your use of these names that provides the association, its not a fishing expedition on my part.

      • Per Chris Martenson – “First Libertarian I’ve met who accepts the science on AGW, skip.” your words R2M. Other wise you can just goggle it and find him on just about every glibertarian financial site.

        As I thought, you have no proof at all. Figures! 🙄

        So in your opinion Yves Smith et al is not fit for wiki?

        Not only in my opinion, but in the opinion of every sysop at the encyclopedia. You don’t seem to be able to separate fact from fiction. “Opinion pieces” are not reliable sources.

        how many times can one be shown to be completely wrong and still bloviate

        Taking you as an example, the number is infinite ❗

        your creditability is all over the floor yet you keep wanking

        My credibility is unmarred, but your “creditablility” seems somewhat besmirched by this tussle with me. 😯

        never directly addressing the evidence put right under your nose

        I’m still waiting for any real evidence!

      • Yves Smith book Econned is widely acclaimed [even in the top 100 list of economic books] and her blog is recognized as one of the best on the planet wrt sociopolitical – socioeconomic matters. So it seems your wiki trope is just a trope, even tho she is referenced as well as her book. That’s not to mention the caliber of guest posts.

        “Why are we in such a financial mess today? There are lots of proximate causes: over-leverage, global imbalances, bad financial technology that lead to widespread underestimation of risk.
        But these are all symptoms. Until we isolate and tackle fundamental causes, we will fail to extirpate the disease. ECONned is the first book to examine the unquestioned role of economists as policy-makers, and how they helped create an unmitigated economic disaster.

        Here, Yves Smith looks at how economists in key policy positions put doctrine before hard evidence, ignoring the deteriorating conditions and rising dangers that eventually led them, and us, off the cliff and into financial meltdown. Intelligently written for the layman, Smith takes us on a terrifying investigation of the financial realm over the last twenty-five years of misrepresentations, naive interpretations of economic conditions, rationalizations of bad outcomes, and rejection of clear signs of growing instability.

        In eConned, author Yves Smith reveals:

        –why the measures taken by the Obama Administration are mere palliatives and are unlikely to pave the way for a solid recovery

        –how economists have come to play a profoundly anti-democratic role in policy

        –how financial models and concepts that were discredited more than thirty years ago are still widely used by banks, regulators, and investors

        –how management and employees of major financial firms looted them, enriching themselves and leaving the mess to taxpayers

        –how financial regulation enabled predatory behavior by Wall Street towards investors

        –how economics has no theory of financial systems, yet economists fearlessly prescribe how to manage them

        http://www.amazon.com/ECONned-Unenlightened-Undermined-Democracy-Capitalism/dp/0230114563

        Per Chris Martenson – OK so your opinion is worthless, is that what your saying? Not to mention ZH amongst other fundamentalist libertarian sites prodigious use of his posts, now your just gaming. Yet that does nothing to extinguish the unpacked duplicitous nature using AGW as a tool to forward an ideological agenda wrt gold is real money et al.

        Skippy… the rest of your comment is just asinine w/ emoticons, a sure sign of higher intelligence if there ever was.

      • Just to buttress that a wee bit more…. unlike your off the cuff approach… with a smattering of pejorative misdirections…. rather than putting any meat on the bone….

        Mike the Mad Biologist
        Economics as a Social Science: A Review of ECONned by Yves Smith
        Posted by Mike on April 8, 2010

        I was going to call this review “Naked Came the Economist“, but ECONned: How Unenlightened Self Interest Undermined Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism by Yves Smith of Naked Capitalist is too well written. ECONNED can be divided in two major sections. The first part deals with the flawed economic assumptions that led to the collapse of Big Shitpile and other economic fun times. The second part provides a natural history of what happened, while, at the same time, relating it to the flawed economic assumptions. To deal with the last part first, it’s a very good description, although those lacking any familiarity with what has happened over the last few years might find it tough going. This isn’t Smith’s fault: finance, like introductory biology, has a larger glossary than introductory French (seriously, check out some textbooks).

        But what really sets this book apart is the deconstruction of the neoclassical paradigm in economics in the first three chapters. Those three chapters should not only be required reading for economics majors, but for anyone interested in economic policy.

        Unlike most ‘Keynesians’, who only turn to Keynes when everything goes to shit, Smith makes the case that the assumptions of neoclassical economics rarely, if ever pertain. Keynes’ animal spirits–human irrationality (in the economic, not cognitive sense)–aren’t just a property of bubble manias (e.g., tech stocks in the1990s, and the recent housing bubble). Animal spirits are always operative, and often fouling up supposedly efficient markets. I hope this point–arguably the most critical–doesn’t get lost, but I fear it will.

        ECONned isn’t merely partisan bashing (although given the total embrace of neoclassicism by conservatives, they do get dinged a lot more): Paul Krugman comes under criticism too. The first major criticism is the failure by neoclassicists to understand the relevant economic ‘natural history’: that is, those stupid fucking natural history facts do matter. In Krugman’s case, he gets whacked, and rightly so, for claiming that the run up in oil prices wasn’t driven by speculation (it was), since he didn’t understand how the oil futures market is structured. Conservatives get whacked due to all sorts of ridiculousness too–there’s an entire appendix dedicated to bashing one of the most basic neoclassicist models.

        But I think the other great insight (other than the universality of animal spirits) is how economics as a discipline, and the intellectual edifice of that discipline, is precarious at best. Smith several times describes economics as a social science, not a hard science. In her opinion, economics failed to catch the bubble, and even contributed to it due to a slavish devotion to mathematical theory (e.g., Gaussian copula functions), when it should have been focused much more on the sociology of economic phenomena (which makes sense given the importance of animal spirits). The false security endowed by supposedly hard (dare we say tumescent?) science blinded much of the discipline to the reality on the ground, whereas some old-fashioned fact gathering might have helped a lot more. A sociologist interviewing buyers and sellers in the CDS and CDO markets would have done a world of good.

        In short, this is a superb book, if at times a bit jargon laden, and should be recommended reading for anyone who cares about economic policy and theory.

        http://scienceblogs.com/mikethemadbiologist/2010/04/08/naked-came-the-capitalist-a-re/

        Skippy… what really peeves me off is your bastardization of science [AGW] to push an agenda which is little more than a quasi religious cults mythos by deceptive means, its galling in its dishonesty.

      • Per Chris Martenson – OK so your opinion is worthless, is that what your saying?

        Predictably, you misinterpreted what I said. My meaning was that if he is a libertarian, as you claim, then he’s the first one to accept AGW science. I then asked for proof of his libertarianism, and what was forthcoming? Nada. 🙄

        Not to mention ZH amongst other fundamentalist libertarian sites prodigious use of his posts

        Now you’re just being an arsehole! Martenson is also featured at lefty sites like resilience.org … does that make him a lefty?

        Yet that does nothing to extinguish the unpacked duplicitous nature using AGW as a tool to forward an ideological agenda wrt gold is real money et al.

        Martenson has no dog in that race, and does not profit from saying he has invested in gold. Nor do I. And neither of us have “ideological agendas”.

        what really peeves me off is your bastardization of science [AGW] to push an agenda which is little more than a quasi religious cults mythos by deceptive means, its galling in its dishonesty.

        You’re a complete fool, skippy, who has a special talent in misinterpreting and misrepresenting others and their positions. Good day.

      • R2M,

        He’s as libertarian as they come, all the boxes are ticked, especially the gold bug one, give it up. What posting on resilience.org changes his socioeconomic perspective or that greenwashing is a lefty sort of thing if you want to be accurate about it, especially when the term Free Markets is constantly uttered.

        That’s not to mention your complete failure wrt to all the evidence I provided, not one single refutation but endless devolution into trying to manage the conversation with hamfisted rhetorical ploys. One minute you gabbing on about Obama haters only to be shown the individual behind the marketing [yeah the people that make RE so expensive and then blew the whole thing up whilst making even more unearned profit plus endless bailouts – not to mention clouded title on 60% of RE]. which then you disavow in a complete 180 turnaround.

        Then on top off all that you link to the Chicago School of all bloody places, ground zero for decades of economic failures dressed up as wins and you have the chutzpah to call me a fool?

        Skippy…. you leave the field… not myself. Now I need a mental shower, all your huffing and puffing about AGW and your a Chicago school advocate, is there nothing they won’t do, 60ish plus years of going backwards and numerous failures but its full steam ahead… science its not…

      • If you have the acumen you say wrt medicine [wide field – generalization does not comport to specific knowlage] you would not have made such a guttural quip, it speaks more of ignorance, which is magnified by some sort of personal issues. That is what this is all boiling down too imo, your personal issues on being called out for inaccuracy and endless defection to the point of making all about me. That was mig-i game and its a hallmark of the glibertarian defense mechanism e.g. blow lots of smoke and use ones own internal dialog of insecurity’s and project them onto others, then point at it.

        If you review this entire thread you will see you have not articulated a response to any of the OP made, instead what you have done is tap dance and soft shoe all around it, with resorting to personal attacks, without even the slightest shred of creditability to back it up.

        To date your offerings consist of a well know libertarian gold bug, a Druid [more religious platitudes and crystal balls] green washing [sierra club-esque] – dem kettling sites, accusations of Obama hatred [man that blew up in your face] and of all things, a bloody link to the Chicago School [neoliberal ground zero] Friedman homestead.

        Skippy… If you can’t articulate a position that counters the ones I’ve made w/ underpining – buttressing them, by more than you say, all it amounts to is noise out of your ass. Get a grip r2m and stop hiding in the shadows, your playing the mug here, man up and own your philosophy, what ever it is and stop with the insistent low brow antics.

        PS. nothing more revolting than a quisling playing the part of the empathic nice guy down the road…. we have Abbot and crew for that action.

      • Skippy, this is my last response on this page to you. You keep insisting that I respond to your absurd charges against Bill McKibben, such as the one you posted that:

        “The Rockefellers and Obama have found a new front man in Bill Mckibben it seems. All 350.org will do is spread the word to its minions about this single issue while continuing to ignore the grim reality of the Tar Sands that are already being refined all across this country, the dangers of Nuclear Power and a whole host of energy fiascos

        I laughed it off because it’s so clearly complete rubbish, as anyone who knows Bill would know. You then repeatedly accused me of tap dancing to avoid the charge, without once bothering to actually CHECK whether the accusations have any grounds. Lazy, worthless way of arguing. One quick Google search would bring you to this report in The Guardian: Bill McKibben on tar sands, Obama, geoengineering and population growth

        Also plenty of links where he slams nuclear power, eg http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/studio/multimedia/20121009b/index.html

        Therein you will find the charges are baseless. Go away, you fool 😈

      • R2M,

        The only thing absurd is your inability to do more than, say something, and hold it up as divine truth w/ a side serving of emoticon or personalization. Still waiting for a more substantiated rebuttal than a snip of some link w/ your inference pasted to it.

        “Counting on individuals alone to solve the ‘environmental problem’ is itself a symptom of the overarching problem: the current ideological triumph of a relentless capitalist neoliberalism, grounded above all in the supposed wants and needs of the (consumerist) individual.

        In eight closely argued chapters, Parr presents the interrelated crises currently facing us: climate change; flawed carbon-offset schemes; population growth and income inequality; looming water scarcity; looming food scarcity and expanding worldwide hunger; the food-industrial complex, with genetically modified food and factory-raised animals; the green city movement and attendant social inequality; and the oil industry and its lamentable, indeed apocalyptic, environmental record.

        Typically, authors focus on individual responses to these problems: for example, changes proposed include eating less meat; driving less or not at all; living in a compact city; recycling, dumpster diving, and so on. Only if a significant portion of the world population decides on these changes, individually or in small groups, will the world somehow be ‘saved’.

        Heinberg, for example, in The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2003), recommends a radically restrained (constrained?) lifestyle as a way of enabling humanity to survive longer with a much smaller carbon footprint – necessary if we are to continue to ‘flourish’ as the amount of available oil diminishes on a regular and predictable basis. He doesn’t tell us how to get there from here, though, other than through, presumably, the reading of his book and the activation of our individual consciences.

        McKibben, in Deep Economy: Economics As If the World Mattered (2007), proposes a small-community ethic as a way of living a healthier life: growing one’s own food, driving less, and so on. McKibben sees the ideal social unit as that of a small community, but his solution ultimately entails people voluntarily, and presumably individually, choosing to live in progressive small towns or the countryside: rural Vermont is his home, and apparently his ideal. It’s unclear how one can live in Vermont, however, if one is living in poverty in a major urban centre, or in rural India.

        I mention these two authors not to condemn them, but to indicate the difficulty that lies before any progressive social/ecological critic who does not firmly tie his or her analysis to a critique of global capitalism. As Parr makes clear, one can indeed make individual choices, but how individual is individual? How individual can any choice be in the current economic regime? The individual will always be the creature of larger market forces and logic. The individual’s response, then, will always have to be framed in a larger, inclusive, political context, as political action.

        Here I would point to chapter 6 of Parr’s book, ‘Animal Pharm’, which focuses on agribusiness as it is currently constituted. McKibben’s solution to the woes of junk food, unhealthy meat, fast food, genetically modified food – all harmful both to the human body and to the environment in general – entails the voluntary withdrawal from the current regime, and participation in community-supported agriculture schemes (CSAs), backyard gardening, the support of small local organic farmers, and so on. All laudable, to be sure: anyone who has read Michael Pollan knows that eating good food can certainly improve one’s life.

        Parr, on the other hand, stresses some obvious problems with small community reform that somehow never seems to get beyond ‘identity politics’ – that is, beyond the improvement of the lives of certain types of people (vegans, foodies, small-town inhabitants, farmers, ‘creative class’ types, etc.) rather than all people. She notes, for example, that ‘ethical food choices cannot be separated from the material conditions determining food production and modes of subjectification (race, class, gender, species).’ Most vegans have soybeans as a central part of their diets, and yet ‘soybean production is responsible for the razing of large parts of the Amazon rain forest that is facilitating the institutionalization of North–South power relations.’ Hence, ‘the vegan approach runs the risk of facilitating the culture of consumption that capitalism advances.’ She then goes on to cite the intolerance of certain vegan groups when it comes to people who have tried veganism and rejected it, for health reasons.”

        “Identity politics is not even politics; it’s consumerism as social action. The new signs are contestatory only as signs; thus they are the problem (elements of the ‘spectacle’), not the solution. This is the genius of ever-renascent capitalism: it mutates endlessly, always capable of reappropriating contestation, no matter how seemingly radical, and turning it to its own (exploitative) ends. The vegan feels superior eating soybeans; meanwhile, the Amazon rainforest is stripped for profit.

        This example is extended in the following chapter, ‘Modern Feeling and the Green City’. The current ‘greening’ of the city, from Parr’s perspective, is capitalist business as usual, with a green tint. Her example is Chicago, where a massive energy efficiency initiative has been undertaken, thanks to the efforts of Mayor Daley. But, obviously, Chicago’s transformation has less to do with ‘saving the planet’, in the noble abstract, than it has to do with turning the city into an economically efficient and lifestyle-friendly metropolis that will attract the ‘creative class’ types that nowadays are held to be the salvation of agglomerations in the age of knowledge-based industries. As Parr writes,”

        “The green roof on Chicago’s City Hall is just another code, alongside other codes such as the LEED-rated buildings, housing voucher schemes, bicycle paths, and so on and so forth. What grounds all of these codes and the shifts they undergo over time is the axiomatic of capital, for in all cases capital serves as the justification for urban development and change.

        As with the vegans, the walkable-city types are less concerned with social justice than with establishing their own turf in the most pleasant parts of the gentrified city. And, though Barr does not stress it, gentrification itself is really the index of the failure of the ‘greening’ ideal of the city, because it merely replicates social inequality under the guise of urban efficiency.

        When neighbourhoods are ‘revitalized’, when the LEED-style amenities are introduced, those who are not ‘creative class’ hipster geniuses are forced out, and the neighbourhood, which indeed becomes more pleasant to live in, also becomes unaffordable for most people. Gentrification and green urban renewal seem to be locked in a tight embrace; how would one go about separating them?

        If I have a criticism of Parr’s book, it is in the lack of specifics she provides in response to this type of question. If we are to do away with consumerist individualism, what, in practice, will replace it? Will people individually choose to undertake a sustainable project that is more socially just and inclusive? How is this sort of individualism different from that put forward by more traditional eco-critics? Will they be spontaneously convinced to do so through their reading of Marx? Or is there a need for some overarching governmental decision-making, somehow under the aegis of Marxism?”

        http://climateandcapitalism.com/2013/05/16/the-wrath-of-capital-neoliberalism-and-climate-change-politics/

        BTW “You keep insisting that I respond to your absurd charges against Bill McKibben” actually no. What I have “asked” [insisting is a projection on your part] is you respond to the actual material in totality, McKibben is just one minor point out of a plethora, your prostrations about absurd aside, that has not occurred. What has occurred is endless deployment of chaff with out substance.

        As noted above your juvenile dismissals don’t cut it nor do links to anything associated with Project Syndicate and George Soros [Ukraine hijinks], sorry but Nuland neocon party pals is not my go to source for anything. Not only that but you have to question the agency behind running such massive losses just to keep pushing an agenda, shades of Murdoch style.

        You seem quite limited in your responses imo, just quick drive by couple of sentences w/ maybe a link and topped off with some attempt to diminish myself arbitrarily. You do understand such mannerisms lend to dishonest at the least and worst obsequiously attempting to manage the narrative for a specific agenda… right?

        Skippy… I have been nothing but honest with you, why is it so hard for you to extend the same courtesy, not to mention my tutelage in psyopts from an early age, plus honed by decades of business experience and travel, not to mention friends in the psychological field.

      • Please tell me how it feels to be an ignorant ass hat r2m, a self indulgent idiot that has some twisted messiah complex from reading a book 25 years ago about the fate of humanity, let alone some concept of our species and the great scheme of things.

        Skippy… stoopid ideologue… your just like the rest…

    • notsofastMEMBER

      Agreed. The Trokia needs Greece to stay in the Euro much more the Greeks want to stay in the Euro under the current debt deal.

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        A few months ago a small businessman asked me for my guess on Greece. I told him it would get very loud and noisy but in the end an agreement would be signed because everybody had too much to lose. Minds are being concentrated wonderfully by the no vote. Crisis is a Greek word meaning decision, the Tsipras-Yannis game plan to negotiate a more rational and just reform package is working well. . If you’re a gambler, you could consider buying some Greek bonds, but not too many.

    • Iceland is the best example, though Russia with its 1998 default is also a good example as well. None of this is new. The word Jubilee is Arabic and they figured this out in Mesopotamian times. Debt will always increase at a greater rate than production. Quite simply we get ahead of ourselves. After exhaustive research the Mesopatamians figured out the only way to fix the problem of too much debt was to forgive it in a Jubilee. It is how they prospered. We have forgotten this now everyone is turning Japanese and you never get out of the hole.
      Greece will prosper once the debt load is relieved just as Iceland has and Ireland, Spain et al have not. Everyone focuses on the bond holders that they somehow did not know what they were getting themselves into. It is ridiculous, if you lend an indebted country money you get what you deserve

      • Please tell me how Iceland has any similarity with Greece or is it on size fits all template, is Greece economy or sociopolitical history any thing like Iceland? Is Iceland part of the EU?

        As far as Jubilee goes it was a barbaric system born out of beliefs, which created the mess in the first place, which then necessitated a relief valve every so often, tho your umbrage at debt is strange because slavery aka the ownership of humans as property was seen as gods will.

        Skippy… some just don’t seem to grok that AET et al and libertarianism is just old timey biblical sociopolitical economics… it just comes in a new wrapper like the NASB… white washed as it were…

      • I find myself agreeing with Heisenberg on this, skippy.

        Your monomania about libertarianism is starting to show, and it’s not a good look. 😕

      • R2M,

        I have no manic pathology about libertarianism, I only point out the driving force behind the last 60ish years of sociopolitical – economic agency in the Western world… cough… Chicago school economics, which in turn is just a front for vested interests.

        BTW Heisenberg can address my quire or not, its their prerogative, tho you popping up and resorting to hand waving is a distraction from that process, by design or not.

        Skippy…. as such you can field the quire or put sock in it, otherwise your just blowing smoke.

      • “quire”? Do you mean query? Your spelling and grammar are so bad it’s sometimes difficult to parse what you’re saying.

        And your query above about debt jubilees is almost incoherent. 🙄 Jubilees on debt date back 3,500 years and originated in drought provisions, nothing to do with “a barbaric system born out of beliefs”.
        http://houseofdebt.org/2014/05/18/debt-forgiveness-in-history.html

        You’re full of it, I’m starting to realize! 😡

      • Ummm… Jubilee is a Judaic system of social control as subscribed by their religious texts.

        Well lookie here your link goes to – House of Debt Economic Commentary from Atif Mian and Amir Sufi – Amir Sufi is the Chicago Board of Trade Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and co-director of the Initiative on Global Markets.

        Now that is absolutely absurdly hilarious, for all your prostrations about your umbrage, at being called out on fundie libertarianism and far left hatters of Obama defender, you link straight to the Chicago school… epic~~~~

        Which only gets better with your claim that Heisenberg’s reductive logic is a empiric fact – universal truth as it were. Then all Heisenberg can proffer is more focusing on little old me rather than substantiate his [?] position with any data based historical or other metric than TINA.

        Skippy…. the syntax is irrelevant, tho it does drive some around the twist, rigidity will do that to you…

      • Jubilee is a Judaic system of social control as subscribed by their religious texts

        It’s boring debating someone who does not know history, like you, Skippy.

        Debt cancellations (nowadays called “jubilees”) began in the time of Hammurabi. Google “Hammurabi debt jubilee”
        Example http://cadtm.org/The-Long-Tradition-of-Debt

        The word “jubilee” itself comes from the Jews, but not the concept of debt cancellation.

      • Yes Judaic beliefs are an extension of older foundation myths, yet in anglophone culture its denoted as Judaic – Christianity influence via it being the dominate religion for some century’s, we could go back to PIE if you want. So its a distinction with out a difference save your attempt to infer a lack of knowlage on my part.

        Strangely you have not address my distinction about debt and slavery being OK, it just had a time limit, tho for some you could do the door way and awl thingy.

        Skippy… I digress, the antiquarian dark ages are in the past, tho some do still cling to barbarity out of tradition.

      • WTF has slavery to do with debt cancellation?

        Just for my information, how old are you, skip?

      • “WTF has slavery to do with debt cancellation?”

        Well you and Heisenberg are the ones that used the biblical notion of Jubilee, not me, that’s a packed bit of kit with all kinds of meanings attached. If your going to forward biblical palliatives, its important to understand its context in history, and not simplistic romanticism e.g. the debt in biblical reality was slavery and not bar tabs or bad loans, default back then made you someones slave and confiscation of property if you had any. Rise and Repeat endlessly also known in modern economics as boom and bust.

        Anywho… I went down this rabbit hole with Beardo over at NC for like 4 years until he finally let down his disguise as a well meaning chap and showed his true colours, we must live as Gawd demands no matter what.

        Skippy… you can search the NC data base, man he mangled everything, spreading skys, loon pond mock Phd’s bastardizing science and rewriting history trying and promote their agenda… shezzz,,, disingenuous does not even cover it.

        PS. My age? Sorry happily married with 4 kids, cat, 2 dogs and the tragicomedy that is the aussie in-laws, but thanks for the compliment. If you have to ask after snip-its of my personal history in comments, your intuition needs some work.

      • I suspect you are over 70 from the way you write, self educated (an autodidact), with limited real understanding of what you are saying. 🙄

      • R2M,

        Yeah I said you need to get that intuition tuned, 50ish with 2 degrees, executive officer for more than two T1 multinationals and a few nationals w/ internationally seasoned. Then you can whack on military service in elite small teams ops w/ a bit of security work afterwards, swapo stuff et al back in the day. That’s not to mention family back ground and associated experiences with some BSD sorts of public notoriety, I thought I mentioned a few such but not by name in a previous comment. In addition my wife’s side of the party, Australia is a very small pond imo with wide social nets, plus she is a medical clinician and teaches a two universities, heaps of departmental affiliation going on there.

        Sure I read a lot, but also have the luxury of checking for biases or conferring with highly academic minds, as that is their life’s toil. If any thing I am a history buff and scientific devote first and foremost, everything else is a sub set of that, who seeks the facts from subtracting the propaganda and truisms some hive like minds have a penchant for. Just some bloke that does not engage in ism or ologys.

        “self educated (an autodidact), with limited real understanding of what you are saying” is that the best you can do r2m, endless attempts to infer a character flaw, yet not a modicum of attention to the actual material offered. You never actually respond to it, just deploy that ludicrous libertarian strategy of dragging everything off in to the fog of irrelevant distractions. BTW you invalidate your statement right at the onset with the utilization of the quantifier – real – like real people or real money or my reality [insert ism or ology]. Its hubris of the highest order, unfounded compartmentalization [pigeonholing], specious reference with out a hint of disticto and at worst a milquetoast attempt at trying to assert some sort of authority [that game might work down at the pub but not with me mate].

        Skippy… so my dialectical style and syntax is an affront to some, you might want to think about that, tripwires and all.

        PS. emoticons, now there is a childish visual aid, the insistent over use moans basement dweller or its ilk.

      • lol, skippy, pull the other one. On the internet, nobody knows you’re a dog, eh? An “executive officer” who spends his days making obtuse comments here, just too funny. You are good comedic value, I’ll give you that. Obligatory emoticon: 😆

        Worst thing about you is that one needs a machete to wade through the jungle that constitutes a “comment” from your keyboard, fella. No executive would ever get away with that.

        At least this site keep you busy and out of trouble.

      • Clarion corp international and TRW, L.A. Calif – 80s, civil engineering with concerns like Ashland, VSA, Bell – AT&T, Bechtel, TrueValue, retrofit energy saving lighting applications for the city of Burbank Calif [to include all municipal buildings and power plant], SAG, several highrises in L.A. CBD and numerous small to medium CRE through out greater L.A., with a far bit of asbestos control and removal through out the entire L.A. basin public school system, including assorted international projects that fell out of schedule – late 80s – 90s.

        Boulder, Co. early 80s niche national company with mate in custom concrete preparation and finishes for national and international concerns w/ off time in Costa Rica to develop timber [carbon offset – harvest], avocados and banana plantations.

        Australia latter 90s, Transfield – BARL et al, Bechtel – port waratah 3rd phase expansion, Monadelphous – numerous shutdown projects and maintenance, stint with one of Australia largest car parking concerns.

        That’s the short but sweet list, in some cases I did two or multiple jobs during a time period per say work weekends with a mates businesses building high end custom homes for architectural mobs like Buff and Hensman in L.A.

        But yeah… a head injury about 6 years ago put me in the weeds a bit, retired to be a stay at home dad, let wife fulfill her career aspirations after 4 kids. Time you say? As of yesterday whilst being deflected by your lack of attention to actual material and events being discussed, I mowed the lawn, washed the car, drove kids around a bit and to work, laundry, kitchen and made tea.

        Skippy…. At least my CHI was not as bad as that poor Canadian bloke that started the whole waterfront – woodshed revamp, but hay. what a guy can do with an inheritance… eh… just don’t come off the horse… then all that wealth becomes meaningless…

        PS. BTW it seems your only countenance to anything that conflicts with your opinion is just arbitrary dismissal. That’s the machinations of someone of a devoted nature, please do try harder to engage with the actual material being discussed, your penchant for personalization only is playground antics.

      • Well it seems you can’t add more than childish one liners, albeit sans any medical back ground. FYI been checked out by some of the best in Australia [neuro – psychologist] and a Phd mate in the states with over 2 decades of experience w/ war veterans. Made a few hundred million in soft ware and decided to do something meaningful with his life rather than play with yachts and other toys.

        Skippy… you do seem to have a penchant for yabbo like comebacks r2m, whats your excuse?

      • you do seem to have a penchant for yabbo like comebacks r2m, whats your excuse?

        Tedium. I actually do have a medical background, as well as software, and I was able to retire comfortably in my 40s.

    • Skippy there is no other option. The alternative in Japan who have never quaterised their bad debts and have had 25 years of decline, If getting rid of the debt is so bad give me an example of a country as indebted as Greece who actually works their way out of it. Germany had the same problem of massive war debts it could not pay after WW1 and we all know what happened there.
      Around Iceland, you answer your own question. Iceland is not part of the EU and hence it recovered. It is a template, though it may not suit your argument.

      • Firstly I think it is cogent to distinguish between bad debts and poorly underwritten credit issuance plus the unique conditions to every single case, it is a case by case observation imo and not some reductive Newtonian law. To approach such complexity lacks nuance or granularity which overlooks important factors, and they say unintended consequences.

        Japan is unique for a wide array of factors post WWII, bombed and burnt to rubble only to become a protectorate of the US [forward OP to the red devils], such was it that it was rebuilt in one quick go which catapulted it into the market unlike before. This boom enable them to out pace the US due to its vigor and the events I posted on non monetarist factors due to the Vietnam war [Taxation was not seen as a sound political choice at the time necessitating Volkerization]. Then you have the Plazza Accord which nurtured Japan and unleashed the shadow sector allowing unfettered hyper capital flows all over the planet and pinching old market share from traditional banking which in the end was a key driver in our currant Hyper C/RE debacle.

        That said Japan has fared better than most historically when put under the conditions it has suffered, good on them I say, tho the free market fundamentalists do take exception to those not reading from the same hymen page, back sliders and all. Still they are providing friction to the TTP so there you go.

        Skippy…. “Skippy there is no other option” – and with that we have the classic TINA meme…

      • Handwaving response that fails to answer Heisenberg’s factual statement, which is that there is no other way out of huge debts other than jubilee.

        Give us another. Go on.

      • R2M. Skippy likes to refer to himself in the third person.
        “Typically, the use of the third person by individuals themselves, called illeism, is associated with egocentrics and oddball characters like rapper Flavor Flav, American Psycho’s Patrick Bateman and Jimmy from Seinfeld.” He joins a select crowd

      • So I see you two can’t conjure up anything but low brow personal slurs in the form of insinuation, the actual material being discussed is too hard it seems.

        Skippy… historical record vs. ideological preferences thingo

      • As I suspected, you have not offered an alternative to debt cancellation. 🙄

      • No I did not engage the topic from a palliative angle, it was to unpack the wonky thinking to draw simplistic parallels between country’s with completely different sociopolitical and socioeconomic reality’s r2m, no matter how much some would like to frame it that way.

        Greece is in the EU, Iceland is not, it only is a member of the EFTA and EEA and not the EU, it only gets more divergent from on out. Hell at this moment it looks like Iceland cares more about its fishery’s than exposing it to the EU by membership. Not to mention a completely different trade portfolio and geopolitical back ground, so what might work for Iceland does not directly translate to what would work for Greece.

        Palliatives for Greece should be factored on what is best for the citizens in the short and long run, without opening doors which might actually make matter much worse, that includes the counter party’s. But it has to be noted that Greece’s problems are at least 75ish years old and not just banks or being in the wrong geographical location at the wrong times.

        Skippy… it just seems so many want to pin their pet peeves what ever they be [left or right] on Greece like a football match and barrack for their team to win, but forget about the people.

    • “Corruption, fraud, tax evasion, fantastically bloated civil service, lack of will to reform”.. Says it all. I liked Greece when I traveled there a few times, especially the islands. But you always ended up shaking your head at the total laissez faire attitude. Greece was always a basket case, It was bound to come to this.

      • “Greece was always a basket case, It was bound to come to this.”

        And yet Greece’s creditors refuse to accept that they entered in to anything but a risk-free transaction.

      • AB Greece is a choke point between the east and the west with ports, historically such geographic locations are hot spots, Afghanistan et al with better climate and beaches.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        “corruption, fraud, tax evasion,fantastically bloated public service,lack of will to reform”
        Sounds like us.

      • AB if you change it to bloated corporate sector which has established a death lip lock on the public teat I would agree with you.

  6. I looked up BTFD. Why does every man and and his dog want to call the Bainbridge Town Fire Department ?

  7. Oh, just hurry up and GrExit already. All this bureaucratic hand wringing is boring. Yaaaaawn. Yaaaaawn.

    Although I guess I shouldn’t complain; the longer the inevitable is drawn out, the more the risks become correlated in different markets, and the greater the chance of a real contagious doozie of an event. A great event for fans of non linear systems like me!

  8. Who owns a sovereign printing press manufacturing company and how quickly can they ship a New Drachma printing press somewhere.

  9. kiwikarynMEMBER

    Greece should return to the drachma. That might prompt some of the unemployed Greeks to get off their asses and immigrate to look for work, earn euros, and send money home. Much like the Irish and Polish have done over the decades. That would help fix the unemployment and social welfare spending problems. One should really ask the question of why the 25% unemployed Greeks are still living in Greece, when they are free to work in European countries with low unemployment rates like Germany, Scandinavia, and the UK. Govt reforms can’t change a culture of taking handouts to one with a work ethic.

  10. Greeks own 18% of the world’s cargo ships. They are a trading nation. With a business friendly environment and all that trade going via their country, they have a real chance of success. With cheap labour and land they can look to move so much of the cargo that goes past their ports up the value chain. Greeks are hard working, they just have a corrupted government. With no one left to bail them out these problems will have to be addressed. It is what makes me so excited about Greece and I am looking at buying stocks there (though not quite yet)

    • Agreed Heisenberg

      The Chinese super duper market for all of Europe, A kind of Singapore shopping holiday of the 70’s. Maybe…

    • I wrote the same yesterday, didn’t get any real traction, but alas it hits nail squarely of not fairly.