REIWA: Perth housing to boom!

By Leith van Onselen

If you want a good laugh, check-out the above video featuring the Real Estate Institute of WA chief, David Airey, explaining why Perth’s housing market is set to soar:

“Given the sustained period of flat market in Perth, I’d expect the Perth market to be absolutely ramping along in the next year or two – certainly the next three years”…

More wise men from the East looking at WA through a pair of binoculars and making these wild predictions to scare the population”…

For all the reasons why Mr Airey is wrong, check-out my detailed report on why the Perth economy is at risk of a depression.

Owing to commercial sensitivities, MacroBusiness Industries can neither confirm nor deny the rumoured deployment of a number of Telephunken U-47 Spruikbots to Perth:

Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

Comments

  1. The spriukbot is UE with a Hollywood movie voice and Steve Jobs’s cast off wardrobe.

  2. Love the depth of his Airey (fairy) intellectual analysis. Market has been flat for a few years so it must boom. What a muppet.

    UE, am sure you’ve got that clip waiting to trot out in a year or two when the blood is in the streets.

    • just_the_pipMEMBER

      My thoughts too mdsee. If that’s all he is basing his predictions on then he has really provided zero evidence to counter the data-based view that Perth property will continue falling, with the pace set to quicken significantly.

  3. These are the same people who’ve been telling me for six years that interest rates will soon go up.

  4. Sounds reasonable to me. This good looking guy makes a lot of sense, the WA market is like a recoiled spring waiting to burst upwards at great velocity. Smart investors like Reusa will leverage up and buy a 6 pack of houses as they will surely be worth double in only 3 years due to the flat years.

  5. Forrest GumpMEMBER

    REIWA residential vacancies (Perth only excluding the rest of WA)

    Oct 2013. 3500 empty rentals
    May 2015. 8100 empty rentals

  6. AusDreamNoMore

    I haven’t seen prices fall much in the past few years but from what I’ve seen they aren’t going up a lot either. Sure apartments may have but that’s because they were the entry point into the market 2 years ago, now however they are extremely pricey.

    To say the market is going to sudden rise when the iron bottom still has not been seen, When I personally know of people loosing job’s this week and employment is declining, So I ask these property spuirker’s what exactly will make that sudden change in the next three years of rising prices.

    • Property prices work exactly like the interest rates, according to these people. If they haven’t risen for a while, then clearly they’ll soon rise. Duh. Don’t know what part of it is so hard to understand.

      Just try asking someone trotting out those arguments what makes property prices rise. Or interest rates rise. They look at you like (I’m told) “a blackfella about to go walkabout”.

      • AusDreamNoMore

        HAHAHAHAHAHA I know this exact look I’ve witnessed it from a smug younger bloke who think’s he’s the property king.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Wait for the look after it’s all gone to shit. A mixture of confusion, hopelessness and anger. Saw it just two days ago. Saw it a lot when Storm Financial went under.

        That look is the sign that your opinion will now be taken seriously. On no account mention previously offered opinion.

  7. Damn it, I can’t get Spruikbot’s propaganda out of my head!?! If I go out and buy a property tomorrow I’m blaming MB..

  8. Too funny. You can rent office space in the city $400 per month now. The best part is there is building going on everywhere. Everything that was approved during the boom is soon to come on the market… Watch out below. I think MB’s 30% fall prediction will be too conservative

    • So True. A lot of building going on that will all come online in the next 6 months, and then there will be a lot of construction workers without work as no more domestic/ commercial construction projects will be coming online due to nothing selling This will compound the employment collapse already happening within mining operations (Word on the street is BHP looking at more big job losses next week), and the big hitters of Gorgon and Roy Hill construction finishing in the same period.

      At the moment there are an additional 200 houses being added to the vacant residential rental stock every week. But it is OK prices have been flat the last few years so I am sure it will all be fine!

  9. The REIWA’s David Airey would have sounded more credible had he just said “Lindsay David? Don’t you know to never trust a man with two first names?”
    Instead he just said what was most convenient for himself as a real estate agent (because let’s face it, who could have missed the use of his own pull up banner in the background to talk in his official role on behalf of the REIWA?)

  10. I wonder if Perth’s crash will bring uncertainty to other markets or will the provincialism rule?

    • Obviously take your advice from Moody’s on that one. Perth is A Very Long Way from anything, so obviously we’re all fine.

  11. “Given the sustained period of flat market in Perth, I’d expect the Perth market to be absolutely ramping along in the next year or two – certainly the next three years”…

    Clicky, Clicky

  12. Isn’t this considering misleading and deceptive conduct?
    http://www.commerce.wa.gov.au/consumer-protection/misleading-or-deceptive-conduct
    Quoted from above “Predictions and Opinions”:
    “A statement about the future that does not turn out to be true is not necessarily misleading or deceptive.
    But promises, opinions and predictions can be misleading or deceptive if the person making the statement:
    • knew it was untrue or incorrect;
    • did not care whether it was true or not; or
    • had no reasonable grounds for making it.
    A court will consider all the relevant circumstances and impact on the consumer when deciding if a prediction or opinion is misleading or deceptive.”

    • Fantastic work Dr Fixit. I went to a home open a few years ago and the agent says “you will not lose buying this house”. Imagine a share broker getting someone to put all their savings and leverage at 10:1 into a stock and they say “you will not lose buying this stock” They would go to jail. I responded saying “so will you underwrite a guarantee upon us selling the house in however many years time?” She looked totally bemused. Such a joke that to provide financial advice you rightly need all sorts of qualifications and yet to sell a house you do a week long course at TAFE! I might speak to a lawyer mate about this. Could be a bit of fun!!!

  13. @Heisenberg – my experience of consumer law in this country has been very disappointing, they just don’t seem interested in misleading and deceptive conduct. It would be great if someone could give their opinion on this and if we could have some fun with it?

  14. I am in a legal fight at the moment over trademark. Their Lawyer is $1100 an hour so I am just wasting their time. I agree with you. No one is directly affected. You need to find someone who leveraged up on a house based on that single report and then years later lost money. Really needs to be prosecuted by state prosecutor and they probably have better things to be doing. Still I can send letters to channel 9 and REIWA, waste their time and get them scared. Will see how I go as pretty busy again in a couple of weeks.

  15. I emailed a member of federal parliament last night asking how not keeping track of foreign investors buying Australian real estate is not a national security issue and how the government can guarantee that we do not have terrorists using Australian real estate for money laundering and terrorist related activities etc. Does anyone have any opinions on this? Too much vested interest to care?

  16. Spoke to a partner at one of the big four accounting firms who is doing some work with the tax dept ATM. He said basically all the Chinese money is laundered money – which we all know but he confirmed it. Also said there are major reforms being proposed to simplify the tax system. Also looking at negative gearing and will be ready for the next election. How much of it actually makes it through the liberal party room I am skeptical on but there is a broad understanding that we have a problem. Whilst they may appear it, many of those in Canberra are not dumb though political realities force them to be.

  17. 1 Spoke to a partner at one of the big four accounting firms who is doing some work with the tax dept ATM. He said basically all the Chinese money is laundered money – which we all know but he confirmed it. Also said there are major reforms being proposed to simplify the tax system. Also looking at negative gearing and will be ready for the next election. How much of it actually makes it through the liberal party room I am skeptical on but there is a broad understanding that we have a problem. Whilst they may appear it, many of those in Canberra are not dumb though political realities force them to be.

  18. I am not sure why current and any alternative (future/past) aussie government’s commitment to RE is constantly underestimated on MB. They will fight RE’s revert to mean to the very last AU$ left in our pockets.

    RE “experts” are right, but not for the reasons they said.