From Fairfax:
The Abbott government is weighing tougher emissions reduction targets for the post-2020 period than conservatives in cabinet had wanted in a move that would restore Australia to the international mainstream on climate change policy and challenge the Prime Minister’s reputation as a global warming denier.
Fairfax Media understands the push for a more urgent approach, which could see Australia running with Canada and the US who have both announced stronger targets than expected, is coming from within the government and is aimed at cutting Australia’s greenhouse emissions more rapidly, perhaps by as much as 24 to 28 per cent by 2030.
…With an election possible later this year and due by late 2016, Mr Abbott also wants to prove to voters that significant cuts to emissions can be achieved without a carbon price which Labor has committed to reintroducing, but which he has promised will not now nor ever be part of Coalition policy.
Of course emission cuts are possible without a carbon price. The issue is what will they cost? The Coalition’s primary policy of “Direct Action” will cut emissions by paying emitters to shut down operations but it is already grossly underfunded to reach existing targets. To reach the kind of cuts that will match the US will destroy the Budget outlook, from The Guardian last year:
Calculating the cuts necessary to achieve that target from Australia’s current emissions trajectory, The Climate Institute says it would cost $9bn in 2025 to buy the necessary abatement at a very low $8 to $9 a tonne, or $30bn if carbon abatement costs closer to $30 a tonne in 2025, as projected by Treasury.
The current $2.5bn emissions reduction fund is designed only to meet the 2020 target, which is set to become an easier objective because Australia’s emissions have fallen with the closure of heavy industry and the rapid take-up of rooftop solar and other renewables.
Let’s recall that a carbon price works the other way around by making emitters pay for their pollution, garnering a huge windfall for the Budget and recycling that as tax cuts for consumers ensuring that they pay the least possible amount. For Direct Action to work it will require enormous new taxes to pay out the polluters.
If ever there was an Abbottalypse moment this is it.
