Support for the federal government has risen to an 18-month high in Tony Abbott’s home state of NSW but the Coalition continues to struggle in Victoria and South Australia.
An analysis of Newspolls conducted for The Australian over the past three months shows Labor’s support in NSW has tumbled to its lowest level since before the 2013 election and recent gains in Western Australia have been lost, but the ALP’s support in Queensland has reached a five-year high.
The June quarter analysis of 5771 voters surveyed by Newspoll shows satisfaction with Mr Abbott’s performance as prime minister rose in every state, among men and women and in every age group.
Perhaps Mr Abbott can be Prime Minster of NSW. I’m sure there is a fresh national June polling result buried in there somewhere, and I imagine it’s not too good given the preference for a quarterly assessment.
Meanwhile, at Roy Morgan the Government is up a little but still well behind:
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Federal L-NP support is up 1% to 46.5% cf. ALP 53.5% (down 1%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten faced criticism for his role in the AWU ‘affair’ and was caught lying about his support for former Prime Minister Julia Gillard – however the ALP would still win a Federal Election held now.
Primary support for the L-NP is up 1.5% to 39% now clearly ahead of the ALP 36% (down 1.5%). Support for other parties shows the Greens at 14% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 1.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8.5% (down 0.5%).
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends of June 20/21 & 27/28, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,282 Australian electors.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 98.5pts this week with 41.5% (unchanged) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 40% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows a majority of women and men supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 55.5% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 1.5%) and Men: ALP 52% (up 0.5%) cf. L-NP 48% (down 0.5%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%; 50-64yr olds very narrowly favour the ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%.
Analysis by States
The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Tasmania which is evenly divided. South Australia: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%, Queensland: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%, New South Wales: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%, Victoria: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Western Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and Tasmania: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%.
And my own chart of first term PMs:
Still holding some post Abbottalypse gains but far from a winner.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Federal L-NP support is up 1% to 46.5% cf. ALP 53.5% (down 1%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten faced criticism for his role in the AWU ‘affair’ and was caught lying about his support for former Prime Minister Julia Gillard – however the ALP would still win a Federal Election held now.
