Abbott spins his polling wheels

Lipstick applied to the pig today at The Australian:

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Support for the federal government has risen to an 18-month high in Tony Abbott’s home state of NSW but the Coalition continues to struggle in Victoria and South Australia.

An analysis of Newspolls conducted for The Australian over the past three months shows Labor’s support in NSW has tumbled to its lowest level since before the 2013 election and recent gains in Western Australia have been lost, but the ALP’s support in Queensland has reached a five-year high.

The June quarter analysis of 5771 voters surveyed by Newspoll shows satisfaction with Mr ­Abbott’s performance as prime minister rose in every state, among men and women and in every age group.

Perhaps Mr Abbott can be Prime Minster of NSW. I’m sure there is a fresh national June polling result buried in there somewhere, and I imagine it’s not too good given the preference for a quarterly assessment.

Meanwhile, at Roy Morgan the Government is up a little but still well behind:

unnamedFederal L-NP support is up 1% to 46.5% cf. ALP 53.5% (down 1%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten faced criticism for his role in the AWU ‘affair’ and was caught lying about his support for former Prime Minister Julia Gillard – however the ALP would still win a Federal Election held now.

Primary support for the L-NP is up 1.5% to 39% now clearly ahead of the ALP 36% (down 1.5%). Support for other parties shows the Greens at 14% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 1.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8.5% (down 0.5%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends of June 20/21 & 27/28, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,282 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 98.5pts this week with 41.5% (unchanged) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 40% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of women and men supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 55.5% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 1.5%) and Men: ALP 52% (up 0.5%) cf. L-NP 48% (down 0.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%; 50-64yr olds very narrowly favour the ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Tasmania which is evenly divided. South Australia: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%, Queensland: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%, New South Wales: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%, Victoria: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Western Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and Tasmania: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%.

And my own chart of first term PMs:

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Still holding some post Abbottalypse gains but far from a winner.

Comments

  1. Without a credible border policy we’re going to get a stronger LNP.

    Labor and Greens are so dumb. How about you morons concentrate on the welfare of existing Australians?

  2. I put more stock in the Morgan poll than Newspoll.
    Even with Shorten’s short comings the LNP is still on the nose. I doubt Shorten’s appointment with the Senate hearing will change the landscape. The Greens leader is still banging on about a DD snap election – a bunch of lemmings.

  3. Tassie TomMEMBER

    “Lipstick on a pig” is a fair summary – The Australian is spruiking the polling in WA, but a 50-50 in WA would be a disaster for the LNP!

    Of the 15 WA seats, Labor currently hold 3 with last election’s 42-58 split. At 50-50 the LNP can say goodbye to Swan and Hasluck straight away, and it brings into play Cowan, Moore, Stirling, and even Forrest and Canning (more and more hippies living in those seats) and Pearce. Even Tangney might get a bigger than average swing, as Dennis Jensen has revealed himself to all and sundry that he is an idiot.

    At 50-50 there are only 3 certain LNP seats – Durack, O’Connor, and Curtin. Not all 9 of the aforementioned seats will fall, but a lot of them will.

  4. Terror Australis

    For anyone predicting an early DD election, I recommend you read Antony Green’s blog on the topic.
    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/06/there-is-some-wild-speculation-about-an-early-election-but-there-are-several-problems-for-the-government-first-is-the-sena.html

    There are constitutional, practical and political problems with going to an early DD poll.
    None of which are necessarily a brick wall to calling one, but it lengthens the odds.

    I think Tony-Ten-Flags best chance is to delay at least until August next year and “hope” something happens either domestically or internationally that makes national security front of mind with most voters. That’s really the only political battleground where the LNP has even a chance of winning.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      “Hopes” something happens. Yes.

      There’s a very good reason he’s trying to alienate a whole section of the community.