Suddenly, Chinese property back in vogue

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Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Is the mood really changing or is the media whipping up sentiment as per government orders? With mortgage rates tumbling and tax changes working in their favor, sellers are hiking prices. There’s definitely a pickup in luxury activity, with buyers lining up to buy homes in Shanghai and Beijing sales and prices ticking up . Meanwhile, in Chengdu, homebuyers abandoned their Qing Ming Festival vacation plans to look at houses instead, iFeng: 再现连夜排队买房 房企透露房价是否要大涨.In Shanghai, people with net worth of ¥10 million and above queued up to buy homes in the wake of changes to the law, leading to ¥400 million in sales in one day.

March 30 the introduction of the New Deal 22 o’clock that night, Shanghai Huangpu financial Green Bay, Royal Park are selling very popular, million net worth above the crowd, have queued overnight to buy a house. Data show that 31 evening, Shanghai into green single-day turnover reached 400 million yuan, the data, aspirations Shanghai housing prices the highest single-day turnover.

In Chengdu, vacations were cancelled:

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According to the “Chengdu Business Daily” reported that after the New Deal during the Qingming holiday, Chengdu, some real estate booming, and even buy a house “abandoning vacation.”

At 11:00 on April 5, in Chien-fa · Heron Island International Chengdu Tianfu Road and South Second Street intersection, although close to lunch time, but buyers still flocked to the sales department contacts, in consultation with the district almost packed, popularity is very busy.

The conclusion to the article is amusing:

Macroeconomic policy for the property market deregulation, the purpose is not to let the barbaric growth industries. Cross-border, fine, reasonable profit, will become the ultimate development of the industry trend. “March 30 New Deal” to the property market with great confidence, that confidence is more rational and sensible, rather than letting the market into madness stimulant.

Even though the media is trying to whip up a housing frenzy, they don’t want to actually cause a housing frenzy, so everyone please be more rational this time.

In Beijing, luxury homes are selling like hot cakes and prices inside the 4th ring have crossed above ¥80,000 per sqm, up from ¥50,000 in 2013. Luxury booms as the rest of the market stagnates, sounds familiar, iFeng: 北京豪宅成交暴涨 四环房价将进入8万元时代.

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Sales of homes selling for more than ¥100,000 per sqm have almost tripled from last year’s figures.

Among them, the turnover of the average price of highest of properties for sale for Wanliu academy, a total of turnover of 15 sets of, turnover the average price of amounted to 134,985 yuan / square meter, clinch a deal the amount of for the 532 million yuan; ranked second place is the the central axis of international, clinch a deal 1 sets, the amount of for the 66 million yuan, the average price for 118,669 yuan / square meter; the third-bit, compared with Pangu Taikan, clinch a deal 96 sets of, average transaction price for 107,705 yuan / square meter, clinch a deal the total amount of for 6.817 billion yuan; even if is the average transaction price the lowest of the project, the average price is also close to 70,000 yuan / square meter.

Are the banks suddenly optimistic or are they receiving orders from on high? Last year banks weren’t offering discounts for first time homebuyers unless they had pristine credit, now several banks in Beijing are offering discounted mortgages for second home buyers, with discounts as high as 30%, iFeng: 二套房利率再现7折 房主连夜上调房价.

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Fastest response Zhejiang Bank, the bank in the evening on March 30 announced the second home mortgage policy rules: buyers in the purchase of ordinary housing when (the total price of the apartment at ¥5 million yuan or less), down payment as low as 40 percent, and the total price of ¥5 million yuan or more villa apartment minimum 50 percent down payment.

Yesterday, more banks to join. ICBC, China Merchants Bank statement, owning a home and the corresponding set of home loans outstanding of households, in order to improve the living conditions of application for commercial individual housing loans again to buy ordinary housing, the minimum down payment ratio of 40%.

In addition, the reporter contacted the Beijing branch of China Everbright Bank credit department, the staff said, the specific document also did not hang out. Agricultural Bank of China, Beijing Rural Commercial Bank branch staff said the recent specific mortgage policy will come out.

Institutional analysis that, for the New Deal, the bank will take some reaction time, not like the same rate cuts put in place immediately, is expected to need time to implement all the New Deal about a month.

In addition to reduced down payments, interest rates are being slashed:

Zhejiang Bank lowered the interest rate on ordinary home loans of less than ¥5 million to 0.7 times the benchmark interest rate and 0.85 times the benchmark for loans of more than ¥5 million. Zhejiang Bank said the lower discount rate range temporarily cooperation for the purchase of real estate development loans have high quality customer and the bank.

Minimum 30% discount breaks the central bank’s second home interest rate limit of 1.1 times the benchmark. Asked whether cutting the second home mortgage rate “is illegal”, Zhejiang banks declined to comment, saying “there is no more information.”

Reporters noted that the central bank said in the New Deal in the March 30 “specific proportion of down payment and interest rates reasonably determined by the banking institutions based on the borrower’s credit status and repayment ability,” Does this mean that the second home interest rates limit of 1.1 times is broken?

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Previously the central bank restricted second home mortgages to 1.1 times the benchmark, but now Zhejiang has slashed the rate to 0.7 times. Based on current rates, that cuts the mortgage from 5.89% to 3.75%.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.