Steer clear of the East-Coast apartment frenzy

Advertisement

By Leith van Onselen

The AFR is has reported new data from quantity surveyors Rider Levett Bucknall on crane use across Australia’s cities, which highlights the epic apartment construction boom across the East Coat of Australia:

Some 76 new cranes have come onto Sydney residential sites in the last six months. With 15 taken down, the number of cranes working its residential projects totals 123…

That is almost exactly double the figure of six months ago…

In all, there are now 426 cranes at work on commercial and residential projects in Australia’s capitals, a 31 per cent gain since September last year.

“Based on our research, 73 per cent of all cranes erected across the country are on high­-rise residential projects”…

Melbourne added 23 cranes net in the last six months, taking the total to 116…

This cranes data is more or less supported by the ABS’ capital city dwelling approvals figures, which show a massive lift across Melbourne and Sydney, with Brisbane also showing strong growth (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_7263 Apr. 30 08.34

Personally, I would avoid the apartment market like the plague right now. As shown by Domain’s latest price data, the growth in apartment values is slowing fast (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_7261 Apr. 30 08.03

Apartment rental growth is also anaemic (see below table).

ScreenHunter_7264 Apr. 30 08.45

And the metrics are only likely to worsen as population growth slows and the apartments under construction hit the market (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_7265 Apr. 30 08.47

Of course, the apartment deluge is great news for renters.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.