The new China: Bubble up, economy down

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Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Chinese gambled on gold, then home prices, then Bitcoin, now stocks. All three prior investment frenzies ended badly, how about the 4th? Chinese Cash Pours Into H.K. Stock Market Through New Gateway:

Shares of the Hong Kong bourse operator surged 9.4 percent on Thursday to the highest level since December 2007, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index jumped 3.7 percent on volumes more than three times the 30-day average for this time of day.

Mainland investors used up 9.2 billion yuan of the link’s daily quota on Thursday, while international investors were net sellers of Shanghai shares. The Hang Seng China AH Premium Index, which measures the price of mainland stocks over dual-listed counterparts, dropped 3.8 percent. The gauge still shows that mainland equities are 23 percent more expensive.

“The market is fully aware of the undervaluation of H-shares,” said James Cheng, who manages the Allianz Global Investors China Strategic Growth Fund in Taipei. “We see it as a valuable market with many undervalued, good targets.”

China Tycoons Near $50 Billion in Gains From Stock Frenzy:

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Another day, another billion dollars. With Hong Kong stocks surging to a seven-year high, China’s richest tycoons are approaching $50 billion in gains this year.

Take this week’s frenzy. Tencent Holdings Ltd. increased 6.7 percent since Tuesday, adding $1.2 billion to Chairman Ma Huateng’s net worth, valued at $20.1 billion as of today’s market close in Hong Kong. Wang Jianlin, chairman of Dalian Wanda Group, added about $1.2 billion to his $32.4 billion wealth, thanks to his Hong Kong-listed property unit, and closing in on China’s richest man, Alibaba Group Holding Inc. Chairman Jack Ma.

Billionaire Guo Guangchang’s wealth also gained about $850 million since Tuesday as his flagship investment company Fosun International Ltd. rose 12 percent.

Hong Kong Housewife Cheers Stocks as Workers Trade at Lunch:

“Things are getting quite exciting,” said Chow Man, a 68-year-old housewife who favors Chinese banks and infrastructure stocks and says she has as much as HK$200,000 ($25,000) in play. “It’s becoming like a hobby for a lot of mainland investors to trade stocks now. That’s why more of them are taking opportunities in Hong Kong.”

…“I’m trying not to buy too much because the market will likely go down a bit and some stocks are getting more expensive,” said Juliana Lui, a government worker. “I’m staying conscious. Some people are buying stocks like they’re gambling in Macau.”

…“The rally may last for a few more days,” said the security guard, who’s hoping stocks will rise another 10 percent. “I’m just taking a lunch break to do some trading because the market is hot.”

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Long-term, China continues to reform and stock valuations have not soared across the board. That said, the herd is all in and peak psychology is unfolding.

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Meanwhile, in the real economy, China’s State Council released several policies moves aimed at boosting flagging GDP growth, iFeng: 国务院三招救实体经济 一季度GDP面临“破7”风险:

In the first quarter GDP data will be released on the occasion, steady growth once again usher in the new measures. Yesterday, the State Council, “three arrows shot” corporate burdens, including cleanup SheQi administrative fees, the national coal-fired power tariff cut, cut iron ore resources in the proportion of tax collection. This series of policies to reduce the cost of corporate expenses to help companies tide over the difficulties faced in the first quarter GDP next “breaking 7”background risk, and promote economic growth “trilogy,” The introduction also shows the current central steady economic growth determination.

The Xinhua report doesn’t mention the fear of falling below 7% GDP growth:

The Chinese government announced a package of relief measures Wednesday to stimulate businesses and prop up the real economy against increasing downward pressure.

The State Council, China’s cabinet, decided to cut industrial electricity prices and resource taxes on iron ore as well as eliminate “capricious” official fees for firms during a weekly executive meeting.

The move is the country’s latest effort to tackle an economic slowdown amid concerns of a possible slip in the first quarter.

Reuters: China to cut iron ore tax in new blow to glut-hit prices

China has moved to prop up its struggling iron ore industry by slashing taxes, potentially expanding a global glut and undermining a strategy by mega miners to drive out high-cost competitors

Meanwhile, first-tier city land revenues have been cut in half, iFeng: 一线城市土地出让金接近“腰斩” 地方财政有压力:

China continued to cool the property market has also led to the adjustment of the land market steadily decline. Even in the property market is relatively strong first-tier cities, the land market transactions and transfer payments still showed a larger decline.

Central Plains real estate market research report released on the 8th, since the first quarter of this year, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and four first-tier cities 117 land transactions, land transactions with a total construction area of ​​11.32 million square meters, both of which are lowest point in nearly three years. Among them, the four cities a quarter of the land transfer 93.5 billion yuan (RMB), fell 47 percent from a year earlier.

Earlier research institutions released a statistics also reflect the land market downturn.

Middle finger hospital data show that from January to March, China’s total 300 cities land transfer was 406.8 billion yuan, down 43%.

During National monitored 40 cities, only Xiamen and 6 other cities saw land transfer increases, more than 30 cities saw land sales fall. The 10 cities with the largest sales decline all fell more than 75 percent. Midwest City land deal more in the doldrums, Xining, Guiyang year decline in the forefront.

Elsewhere, ANZ sees new policies lifting home prices 5% in first-tier cities, but is still looking for sub-6% GDP growth in 2015, China’s Big Cities To Win From New Property Rules:

The property market easing measures could provide some modest support to growth in the remainder of the year. While we have revised down Q1 GDP growth downward to 6.9% from 7.3%, we revise up our Q2 GDP forecast to 7%, from 6.7% previously. Overall, we maintain our full year GDP forecast at 6.8%, but see modest upside if the property market recovers stronger than expected.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.