China business confidence in hard landing

Just in case you’re wondering why China has entered aggressive easing mode, from Forexlive:

The MNI China Business Sentiment Indicator, a gauge of current business sentiment, fell for the fourth consecutive month to 48.8 in April from 52.2 in March, now at its lowest since the beginning of 2009.

Confidence in contractionary territory for the first time since the financial crisis.

New Orders and Production significantly weaker in April … both at the lowest levels in a year

“Our panel were unambiguously downbeat in April, painting a sombre outlook for growth in the short-term. Action taken by the authorities to date will take time to come through, although the continued downturn in sentiment suggests that further support will be required,” said Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators.

“Balancing the twin goals of maintaining growth close to 7% and pushing ahead with reforms will prove challenging. The good news to date is that so far there are few signs the authorities are abandoning the reform agenda.”


  1. What’s your outlook on China now H&H? Still an engineered transition or are they pushing the panic stimulus button?

  2. they need domestic demand or they are rooted and guess what that wont happen so they will try to flood the world with subsidised crap even more then what they are doing now

    • Its actually the rest of the world that is flooding the market – western countries are using Chinese Labour – important distinction.

  3. This is what happened in Japan. Investment and real estate collapsed so the govt undertook a last ditch effort by flooding the stock market. Inevitably, the capital outflows were too great. Game over. What was the net outflow from China last quarter, some $900 billion I believe?