FOMC preview

From Forexlive comes a neat summary of tonight’s FOMC expectations:

• Soc Gen: drop patient; two hikes in 2015: June and Q4
• Barclays: drop patient, keep overnight RRP at 5bp
• BMO: drop patient; liftoff could be June, September or December; decision will be data-driven. Yellen could downplay inevitablity of 2015 hikes
• Jefferies: keep patient but alter usage, then remove patient in April. A June hike data-dependent; Richmond’s Lacker to dissent if keep patient
• RBC: cut patient, err on side of flexibility; no rate hike for at least2 meetings
• DB: cut patient, keep ability to hike at June FOMC if conditions warrant.Project a June hike.
• Goldman: drop patient guidance; replacement likely to indicate that it will soon be the case that hike could be warranted.
• Oxford Economics – FOMC will likely remove patient … “replace it with language that is the same or similar to the “reasonably confident” guidance. This gives the FOMC flexibility to decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis starting at the June meeting whether to initiate rate lift-off.” Calling September and October hikes, 25bps at each
• JPM: if patient is cut, no dissents likely. If not “the hawkish Lacker would almost certainly dissent. Both Lockhart and Williams have expressed support for having the flexibility to tighten.
• TD: says FOMC to drop patient but hike in September. “Adoption of this more flexible forward guidance framework will likely be interpreted by th emarkets as a clear sign from the Fed that a June hike is on the table, potentially adding increased volatility as investors begin to position for a near-term tightening in monetary policy.”