More on the Chinese property shakeout

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks:

Chinese new homes prices fell an average of 0.43% across the government’s 70 city survey last month. The drop is unchanged from January’s 0.43% drop, marking three straight months of consistent price declines (no acceleration or deceleration in the trend). There is still bifurcation in the market. Shenzhen saw a small increase of 0.2%, second-tier Xiamen and Wuhan held steady, first-tier Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou were all down 0.2% or less.

Year over year, prices are down 5.7%. Since 2010, average prices are up 7.8%.

March 2014: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up.
February: 66 cities saw declines in price mom, 2 cities were flat, 2 were up.

Existing home prices were stronger than new home prices yet again in February, with prices down 0.39% in February, but the decline was higher than the 0.36% drop the month prior. Prices are down 4.9% yoy. Since 2010, existing homes have only risen an average of 2.40. Of the 70 cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics, 28 have existing homes prices below 2010 levels.

70 city new home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.40% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 0.41%; above 144 sqm prices fell 0.59%. The trend across market segments is the same for yoy and prices gains since 2010, with large homes only up an average of 5.5% since 2010 versus 10.0% for houses smaller than 90 sqm.

70 city existing home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.34% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 0.38%; above 144 sqm prices fell 0.45%. Existing homes larger than 144 sqm are down 0.7% on average since 2010. Full report: 2015年2月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况