Weekend Links 7th-8th Feb 2015

Likely to be a big comment weekend given the #Libspill so , if we get to over 250 comments, I’ll kick off a second page so those on mobiles can still play along…

Italics is gunna ..

China

• Conquering China’s Mountain of Debt– Bloomberg
• China Chart of the Week: The IMF’s Falling Forecast for China– Peterson Institute …ugly chart…
• CDB Told to Return to Policy Bank Role It Left Years Ago– Caixin
• CBRC Warns Public Not to Fall for High-Interest Scams at Banks– Caixin
• State-Backed Automaker ‘Spent Millions to Buy Land, Build Villas’– Caixin
• Minsheng Bank President Resigns amid Corruption Investigation– Caixin
• Devaluation by China is the next great risk for a deflationary world– AEP, Telegraph
• China bank reserve cut deepens divergence – BBC, Yueh
• China’s bank reserve ratio cut targets two birds with one stone – SCMP
• China to have most robots by 2017 as car, electronics factories automate – SCMP

Asia

• In the Shadow of Abenomics, Japan’s Poor and Elderly Are Being Left Behind– Bloomberg
• Japan May Force Its Workers to Take Vacation – The Atlantic
• Expectations for wage hikes grow as ‘shunto’ negotiations draw closer – Japan Times
• China-bound shipments log first fall in 5 years – Nikkei Asian Review
• Gusmao resigns as East Timor PM – Nikkei Asian Review

Europe

• Merkel and Hollande in bid to agree Ukraine cease-fire as US considers arming Kiev– Open Europe
• Danish central bank fiercely defends peg– FT
• Tsipras Vows to Keep Promises After German Rebuff – Bloomie
• Greek credit deterioration continues– Markit
• Obama Joins the Greek Chorus– Project Syndicate
• Greek Leaders Return Home for Rethink After Rebuff From Germany– Bloomberg
• German Industrial Output Rises as Economy Recovers – Bloomberg
• Greece: Here’s What Happens Next– Bloomberg
• Devaluation Edges Ukraine Closer to IMF Aid Amid Merkel Visit– Bloomberg
• Money in Greece. Five graphs and some problems.– RWER
• Greece needs an exit option– RWER
• Obama Joins the Greek Chorus– Project-Syndicate
• Draghi: Let’s Turn this Bank Run into a Stampede– Peter Dorman
• Europe’s Eurasian Opportunity– Project-Syndicate
• Greek and German finance ministers clash at debt relief talks– Guardian
• Greece Advances a Good Idea: Indexing Its Debt Repayments to Economic Growth– Peterson Institute
• Syriza and the French indemnity of 1871-73– Michael Pettis
• Why a Whole Set of Vested Interests Might Come to Greece’s Rescue– WSJ
• Former Greek debt negotiator wades into bailout row– Euromoney
• Europe Weighs the Costs Of Casting Greece Aside– WSJ
• ECB’s QE Helps, But It’s Not A Panacea– ETF.com
• The Greek bravado: Why Greece acts so confident in negotiations with its creditors– Financial Post, Schiff
• ECB collateral damages on Greece– Bruegel
• A major step towards a Greek compromise– Bruegel
• Can Greece become competitive overnight?– Bruegel
• Greece and the euro area need a deal within days, not months– Bruegel
• Spain and Podemos: Can they?– Economist…a Spanish Syriza is a much bigger Euro problemo…
• Spanish Bonds Underperform Italy’s as Podemos Gains Popularity– Bloomie
• ECB split points to sensitivity of Greek liquidity curbs– FT.com
• Three ways Greece could still get out of its debt trap– Telegraph
• The myth of the thrifty German saver– Deutsche Welle
• EU says Gazprom’s Turkey plan ‘won’t work’– EU Observer
• Ukraine’s currency is plummeting (again, and even further)– Quartz
• The Eurasian Economic Union: just another USSR? – World Finance
• Euro Zone Private Sector Grows At Fastest Rate In Six Months In January: PMI – IB Times
• THE IMF’S LAMENT FOR IRELAND – Pieria…very good read…
• Why has the ECB punished Greece? – BBC, Peston

United Kingdom

• The solution to England’s housing crisis lies in the green belt– FT.com, Wolf…superb read, would apply to Australia too…
• George Osborne needlessly shrank 5% off GDP with 2010 cuts, says thinktank– Guardian
• David Blunkett: Labour should bring back the ‘death tax’– Telegraph
• UK Hiring Slows As Skills Shortages Bite, Recruiters Say – IB Times
• UK’s trade deficit widens to 2010 high as consumers take advantage of falling oil – Telegraph

United States

• Costly lockout looms on US ports– FT.com…worth reading – the wrong time to have a major IR disruption in the US…
• Horrific Hack of Second-Largest U.S. Health Insurer Affects 80 Million Customers– Slate
• Fannie, Freddie regulator hesitates to order principal reduction– LA Tomes
• Anthem hack exposes data on 80 million; experts warn of identity theft– LA Times
• President Obama’s 2016 budget targets retirement accounts– Market Watch
• trade deficit shoots up to 2-year high– Market Watch
• Trends in per capita real adjusted gross income: updated through 2013– Bonddad…worth a look…
• China suspected in major hacking of health insurer– Washington Post
• President Obama wants to limit your retirement savings — but not his own– Washington Post
• Mortgage rates slump on weaker than expected economic reports– Washington Post
• Obama’s wrong-headed tax reforms– Financial Post
• Yellen faces rate puzzle after one year in office– Deutsche Welle
• Currency manipulation could kill Obama’s big free trade deal– Fortune
• Department of Transportation Says Your Online Shopping Is Clogging America’s Roads– Slate

Americas

• Why Argentina’s President Really Can’t Afford to Mock China– Bloomberg….she is an idiot…
• After Argentine Leader’s Comments, a Challenge to Try Speaking Chinese– NY Times
• Canadian food prices to climb dramatically thanks to falling loonie: report– Vancouver Sun
• City of Vancouver halts 15 downtown developments– Vancouver Sun
• Four years on, economist stands by prediction of Canadian housing’s ‘day of reckoning’– Financial Post
• Calgary’s housing market under pressure as new listings, inventory soar– Financial Post
• Ontario: Gouging tomorrow’s taxpayers for today’s spending– Financial Post…sounds like somewhere I know…
• US calls for Cuba to open embassy in Havana by April– Irish Times
• Brazil January Inflation at Fastest Pace in Nearly 12 Years– Bloomie

The Antipodes

• Liberals do a fine imitation of Labor chaos– The Conversation
• Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting takes farewell swipe at Fairfax Media– The Age
• East Timor PM Xanana Gusmao offers resignation– Al Jazeera
• Still Short Aussie, But Long AU Stocks– ShortSideofLong
• Reserve Bank cuts growth forecasts and leaves door open for another rate cut– Guardian
• Iron ore tipped to fall below $US40 this year– Fairfax….time to take out a mega mortgage maybe?….
• Why Did Australia Cut Rates 25 Basis Points?– XE.com…because the economy is getting a knee in the nuts?…
• RBA Joins Parade and Market Likes Greek Proposals– Marc to Market
• Chart of the day: Aussie hammer blow may be false break – SCMP
• The Morning Interest Rate Spruik – The Idiot Tax…another good read from the idiot…
• Uncertainty over massive Queensland mine after election shock and concerns over Indian company – Fairfax
• Tackling tax taboos: the reform process the government doesn’t want to have – Fairfax
• East West: the public-private project from hell – Fairfax…it should be worn like a crown of thorns by LNP governments for a generation…
• The economic case for changing leaders – Fairfax
• Workers have most to lose in privatisation – Fairfax…though sometimes customers give them a run for their losing money…
• Charted: Why the RBA cut rates – Fairfax…yuck…
• Why term deposits and annuities may be safer investments in RBA easy-money party – AFR, Joye…pertinent points…

Commodities

• Where Is Germany’s Gold?– Bloomberg
• World’s biggest sovereign wealth fund dumps dozens of coal companies– Guardian
• Venezuela ends Algeria oil imports due to logistical, price issues – sources– Reuters
• Oil majors fail to find reserves to counter falling output– Reuters
• Chinese herdsman stumbles onto a 17-pound gold nugget– Market Watch
• Oil spikes in ‘super volatile’ market amid supply gain– Financial Post
• Long-Term Relationship Between Gold, Oil Challenged– Financial sense
• China’s 2014 gold consumption fell 25% – Mineweb
• The new London Gold ‘Fix’ – undue haste? – Mineweb
• Why are gas prices suddenly heading north? – CBS
• More Chinese iron ore mines seen shutting in 2015
• North Africa’s unconventional oil, gas future under threat – Platts

Capital Markets

• Ending an era, CME Group to shutter most futures pits– Reuters
• London Metal Exchange stands strong as bastion of outcry trading– Reuters
• Currency conspiracy theory wide of the mark with iron ore– Reuters…Clyde Russell…
• Default risk rises for emerging and frontier markets– Euromoney
• Failed ECB asset purchases plan has wrought ‘malign impacts’ for the market– Euromoney
• Welcome to Europe, where the bond market is upside down– Quartz
• Energy Weighing Heavily on Junk Bond Market; Watch for Contagion– Financial sense
• Denmark defends euro currency pegging – World finance

Global Macro

• Hunting the Next Bear Stearns– Bloomberg…thought provoking read…
• Two Cheers for the New Normal– Project-Syndicate, O’Neill
• Europe’s War in Ukraine– Project-Syndicate
• German, French leaders take Ukraine peace plan to Moscow– Reuters
• Fiscal Policy in the Era of Stagnation– Peterson Institute
• Inequalities, National and Global– Economonitor
• What Ever Happened to the Misery Index?– Economonitor…good read…
• Hedge Funds Are Status Symbols– ETF.com
• What’s Up? Quantitative Easing & Inflation– ETF.com
• The Wild, Wild East: Risks & Opportunities In Russia– ETF.com ..not a bad read…
• Negative Interest Rates: Capital’s Reproduction Problem– Marc to Market
• Globalisation everywhere, except in the growth numbers: Pessimism reaffirmed?– VoxEU
• The rich and the Great Recession– VoxEU
• Central banks fight ‘vultures’ in global currency war – Want China Times
• Baltic Dry Index plunges into the red – World Finance
• Central banks fight ‘vultures’ in global currency war – Want China Times
• The illusion of monetary policy independence under flexible exchange rates – VoxEU
• Instead of paying down its debts, the world’s gone on another credit binge – Telegraph

And Furthermore

• The government’s cyberterrorism ‘concerns’ are a pretext for their own hacking operations– Guardian…I’ve actually had this thesis put to me…
• Has Ayn Rand’s day as a business guru finally passed?– LA Times…there are quite a few gargoyles still out there…
• Verizon’s super-cookies are a super privacy violation– LA Times…something to think about …
• 7 ways to help the middle class without soaking the rich– Market Watch
• Why testosterone is the drug of the future– Fusion
• Doctors now make house calls for medical marijuana– Fusion
• The Business of Fake Diplomas– Priceonomics …better value than some real ones…
• Meet the crunchy, chemical-hating anti-vaccine conspiracy theorists. From 100 years ago.– Washington Post
• Where people around the world eat the most sugar and fat– Washington Post
• Where do the world’s 2,089 billionaires live?– Telegraph
• I’m Italian, and I thank Greece for reminding us what Europe is supposed to be– Quartz
• Why are wealthy Chinese kids twice as likely to be nearsighted as the poor?– Quartz
• The Chinese government may now have the personal files of US military and Defense Department employees– Quartz
• The disruptive potential of online learning: Comparing the cost and quality of online and traditional education– VoxEU
• How much is a lot? Fiscal adjustments in perspective– VoxEU
• The downing of MH17– Aim Network
• You Have No Idea What Happened– The New Yorker
• New High-Tech Farm Equipment Is a Nightmare for Farmers– Wired
• Report: Tweets will return to Google searches later this year– NExt Web
• Robots Learning to Cook by Watching YouTube Videos– IEEE
• Ukraine Crisis: EU Leaders Head To Moscow For Talks With Russian President Putin – IB Times
• Oil Price Predictions Are Both Science And Art For Energy Analysts – IB Times
• The Rich Get Richer—and More Educated – The Atlantic
• Could working at a treadmill desk make you smarter? – CBS
• Is job loyalty an old concept? – CBS
• DON’T MAKE BASIC INCOME REVENUE NEUTRAL – Pieria
• Unemployment Has Changed. Unemployment Benefits Haven’t. – ThirtyFiveEight
• One Brit discovers why Americans are so fat– Market Watch…are Brits or Australians any thinner?…
• FIXING POLITICS: How online organisation can give power back to the people – The Monthly…there is something very off-putting about a lot of politicians…

Potential Investment Ideas 

• 4 ETF Income Ideas In An Era Of Low Yields– ETF.com
• Blood in the Shark Tank: Pre-money, Post-money and Play-money Valuations– Musings on Markets
• Thinking of switching from gold to gold miners? – Mineweb
• World top 10 gold producers – countries and miners – Mineweb

For chuckles

• Company To Experiment With Valuing Employees – Onion

The one thing to make sure you read this weekend

• A Brief History of the Oil Crash – Reuters (Pdf)…very good read…