Who predicted the rate cut?!?

From the AFR:

Take a bow Bill Evans, Stephen Koukoulas, James McIntyre, Shane Oliver, Stephen Roberts and Kieran Davies. These economists predicted the Reserve Bank would cut the official cash rate when it met on Tuesday and they were right.

Shooooooooooooooort memory, must have a, shoooooooooort memory.

Only MB and Tim Toohey at Goldman retained an easing bias for rates during last year. Everyone else is a Johnny-come-lately!


Houses and Holes
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  1. Who cares.

    Eventually we’ll have to restore mark to market.

    Reality will come.

    Greece may provide it…its bonds are considered Tier 1 capital.

  2. predicting rate cuts has nothing to do with economics because the question is not even related to important question weather it should be cut.

    This is typical example how narrative about important economic decisions are channeled into pointless discussion about ability to predict what goes on in Glenn’s head.

    So instead of real discussion about whether rate needed to be cut our “economists” will argue who was better in predicting the decision.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      No, I think it’s disgraceful that the economists from MB aren’t even being considered. Boast away, these stoopid fools need it in their face!!

      • Thanks to MB my opinions in the workplace as the youngest employee are taken much more seriously than even management.

        My bosses think that getting into work at 7:30 to read the Financial Review makes them financial wizards.

        Shame, all they need to do is browse over MB (which I have linked many a time) to get the answer list.

        Everyone laughed when I said I voted PUP because the only way to fix politics in this country is to break the choke hold the two main parties have. They are all starting to realise this, albeit slowly.

        Getting the interest rate call correct (everyone was predicting rate rises mid last year), telling them not to rush out and fill up on petrol before Christmas because prices will stay low in the short term are all thanks to MB!!

      • good work Labrynth

        you might want to go and fill up your car now though mate…. that trick has run its course

  3. Let’s hope for New Zealand’s sake he doesn’t get brow beaten !
    “Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler has today mounted a strong argument against calls to cut interest rates….”

    • mine-otour in a china shop

      MB failed to get into the SMH because it failed to invite their journalists to a 6 course briefing lunch at one of Sydney’s fine eateries.

      Send them a case of Grange 71 and you will soon be up there in the big lights….

    • Yes. His calls on things like the currency or cash rate in 12 months time have been fairly mixed, whereas his calls on things like the outcome of next weeks RBA board meeting, have been surprisingly accurate. Funny about that.

  4. I think it’s worth MB saying something, if only to break the idea that the economists, who actually keep getting macro wrong much of the time, are worth listening to…

    That idea needs breaking so we can all better get on with reality…

      • Sure, I thought US interest rates would rise last year more than they did and I was onto the housing revival here a bit late (but still early and Leith forecast it anyway).

        I also got one RBA meeting wrong in 2012. Thought they’d hold.

        Can’t think of anything else They’re the big ones.

      • @Bull Market no “slow melt” was the theme – that is, a real, not nominal decline. Not even MB predicted the limitless excess Aussies will go to to pay the most and with the most amount of debt.

  5. The rate is at 2% from an average 8. Theres been 7 years of continuous cuts. Bunch of geniuses.

    The smartest people in the room are those saying yes they will cut rates but that is wrong.

    Some of us are thinking about the economy rather than our egos and portfolios.

  6. Houses – yes congrats are in order on this one, not just throwing our a rate number but a full economic narrative with it.

    Being a near lone voice in a herd of differing opinion is a hard gig.

    I have no problem with you celebrating – nowadays if you don’t claim your successes someone else will.
    And I am sure if you overdo it, the locals on this blog will let you know in no uncertain terms.

    • that’s exactly the point. The msm ignores most of what it gets wrong (which is most) and brags the 1 in 100 it gets right.

      I think hnh is ignored because they get their collective noses rubbed in their shit, which is pretty often! 🙂

    • It would be hard to miss the desperation even you had no nose..

      Keep in mind that off shore ZIRP came after they had their ‘adjustment’ and they have not been able to get their economies off the drugs.

      We are heading towards ZIRP, without a crises to precipitate it, which suggests there is a certain unavoidable adjustment heading our way.

      But rather than attempt to address the issues over the last 7 years (by deflating the ponzinomics while China was goosing our economy) we have just pretended the causes of a certain GFC had nothing to do with us.