The January NAB business survey is out and is already looking dated given it’s pre-Abbottalypse but anyways, here it is:
The fundamental story painted by the January Business Survey is still one of a soft economy, with little momentum, weakish confidence and considerable difference across sectors. At the margin the Survey was a touch softer than December. Business conditions were a little lower (on an un-rounded basis) from a downwardly revised December result. In January, sales deteriorated considerably, profits eased and employment remained soft. Thus business conditions are increasingly below long-run average. By industry, manufacturing deteriorated considerably, while most other industries were flat-to-lower – mining and wholesale were exceptions. Against that orders were up (albeit still soft), while non mining capex is still reasonable. However, a sharp –broad based – drop in capacity utilisation is a concern, as is weakness in the ‘bellwether’ wholesale industry.
• Business confidence edged up a little, but are still below long run averages. Confidence remains very weak in mining, consistent with lower commodity prices, but multi-year lows for the AUD likely contributed to a considerable improvement from last month. Changes in confidence were mixed across other industries. Retail reported a surprising improvement, while confidence in transport/utilities dropped back despite low oil prices.
