Macro Morning: Greek rumours

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Hodlers pounded

By Chris Becker

The emergency EuroGroup meeting last night on the Greek debt crisis kept most risk markets in limbo in the last 24 hours, with a possible resolution leaking out to the newswires this morning, sending some futures racing up.

Coupled with no significant economic reports, the catalysts for action on the ground were thin, and in Europe stocks barely moved. The German DAX closed down 1 point, the FTSE lost 0.2% while broader Stoxx50 Index was down 0.3% in cash trade.

Chart DAX30, H4, 2015.02.11 21:51 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

As I mentioned previously, there is a possible bearish head and shoulders pattern starting to appear on the four hourly and daily charts of the DAX, but the price action is pointing to buying torque as price stays above support in a wait and see mood.

Maybe this is too optimistic, so a short position below this level on a breakdown makes equal sense in my view.

Nothing to report on the FTSE either, still in a wait and see pattern.

In the US, stocks were mixed to say the least with the NASDAQ up 0.3%, the narrow Dow Jones 30 and the broader S&P500 both finishing with a scratch, no movement at all.

However, futures trading has popped up in the last couple of hours, with the daily chart breaking out clearly on rumours of a deal reached in Greece:

Chart SP500, D1, 2015.02.11 21:55 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

SPI200 futures are pointing to a slightly higher open this morning on the ASX200 to make up for the near 0.5% loss yesterday, with Telstra and Rio Tinto reporting interim results today.

In FX world the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.3%, getting ready to break free against the majors once more:


In the last hour or so however, the Euro has jumped over 40 pips after falling through the 1.13 handle in NY trade, now at 1.1340 on Greek rumours:

Chart EURUSD, M30, 2015.02.11 22:02 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

Its going to have to breakthrough 1.1390 or the 1.14 handle proper before making anyone excited to go long in what is still a doomed currency.

Yen continues to consolidate its breakout with the USDJPY now above the 120 handle with the daily chart confirming and the four hourly chart looking sweet here:

Chart USDJPY, H4, 2015.02.11 22:07 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

The Aussie briefly saw 76 cents against the US last night, selling off in the NY session in anticipation of today’s unemployment print. A short term long swing is shaping here, but the volatility around the print this morning may make that too risky for now:

Chart AUDUSD, H1, 2015.02.11 22:08 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

Gold fell again, down 1% or $13 to $1219USD per ounce with a definite follow through on the daily charts now after breaking down on both the 4 hourly and daily charts previously, the next target down back to the $1200 level:

Chart XAUUSD, D1, 2015.02.11 22:10 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

Oil continues to fall as well with Brent down 2% to $55 per barrel and WTI off only 1% to below $50USD per barrel and looking set to fall back to the bottom of its range at $44, although a small long swing position is forming here:

Chart CL-OIL, H4, 2015.02.11 22:20 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

Data today will focus almost solely on the Australian unemployment print this morning followed of course by the fallout in Europe from the debt crisis talks, the Bank of England inflation report and subsequent press conference and then US retail sales.


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