Bloomberg has a very useful article today summarising the bullish case for a turn in Chinese growth. It’s not very good as investment advice but is terrific as a list of people to ignore in the future:
BHP, the world’s biggest miner, forecasts a moderate recovery in Chinese demand for steel in 2015.
James Laurenceson, professor of economics and deputy director of the Australia-China Relations Institute in Sydney. “I look at all the numbers – resources, agriculture and services – and see solid indicators across the board.”
…John Edwards, “There are some signs that that is beginning to turn around. It will have to turn around, otherwise China won’t be able to achieve its aims in respect of urbanization in the next decade or two.”
…”One would hope that they will come out of this recalibration of their economy being stronger and in a better place to be an engine of growth,” John Fraser.
…RBA’s Stevens, growth in China of about 7 per cent, down from 10 per cent years ago, is still good.
…”It is important not to get too bearish on commodity exporters,” said Stephen Jen, co-founder of SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London.
Thanks Bloomie!
For the record, I agree we’ll see some short term stabilisation, and maybe even a little lift but not for long and sub-7% growth for the year is very likely, as well as a sharp fall in total steel production which is past its peak.
Chinese authorities want lower growth and they will have it!
