The mysterious Dun &Bradstreet Business Expectations Survey is out for January and its bullish trajectory has hit a wall. For sales:
For profits:
For capex:
And selling prices:
However, employment is off to the moon for some reason, perhaps declining productivity gains:
The Kouk remains a bear:
According to Stephen Koukoulas, Economic Advisor to Dun & Bradstreet, the June quarter findings have stalled the generally positive trend witnessed through the bulk of 2014. “Given that the relative strength of the business outlook during 2014 coincided with below trend GDP growth and unemployment above six per cent, this recent dip in expectations suggests downside risks for the economy from an already soft starting point.” “Of most concern is the drop in expectations for sales, profits and capital expenditure, all of which have weakened appreciably,” said Mr Koukoulas. “There is, however, some good news in a further increase in hiring expectations which, if sustained, may help to keep a lid on the unemployment rate as the year unfolds,” Mr Koukoulas added.
The survey has little relationship to any part of the economy that I can discern. It is very much inferior to the NAB version and seems a trailing indicator rather predictive. That is, it extrapolates current conditions into the future. That it is rolling now may hint at a weak January but not much else.
