In last year’s Budget, the Abbott Government slashed funding to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) by $50 million, leading to 100 staff being cut from the organisation, along with the cancellation or reduction of a number of work programs and surveys. These cuts followed a $20 million reduction in funding by the former Labor Government.
The impact of these funding cuts has been most visible in the monthly labour force survey, whose sample size was cut. The headline (seasonally adjusted) employment data has become increasingly volatile and unreliable, with large unexplainable swings in the number of jobs and the unemployment rate often present month-to-month.
Australia is also one of the few developed nations that measures inflation (CPI) on a quarterly rather than a monthly basis, thus hindering the Reserve Bank’s ability to formulate monetary policy. We also get our first read on the national accounts one month after the United States.
Today, Fairfax’s Peter Martin has reported that the Abbott Government is now considering axing the 5-yearly Census and replacing it with a smaller survey, in a bid to save a few hundred million dollars:
Asked directly whether the 2016 census would go ahead as planned on August 9, a spokeswoman for the parliamentary secretary to the treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer read from a prepared statement.
It said: “The government and the Bureau of Statistics are consulting with a wide range of stakeholders about the best methods to deliver high quality, accurate and timely information on the social and economic condition of Australian households.”
Asked whether that was an answer to the question: “Will the census go ahead next year?” the spokeswoman replied that it was….
Canada cancelled its compulsory census in 2010 and moved to a shorter voluntary survey. Statisticians testing the new data have described it as “garbage”…
I cannot disagree more strongly with these Budget cuts to Australia’s statistical agencies. They provide negligible cost savings to the Budget and could potentially impose significant costs on the Australian economy over the longer-term via incorrect information and policy responses.
For example, the Census is the only accurate way to determine just how many people live in Australia, as well as where they live. As argued by Australian National University demographer, Peter McDonald:
…the census would be almost impossible to replace…
“There is simply no other way of knowing how many people are in each town or suburb. Planners would be working without guidance. Over time it would be harder to know the size of the Australian population.”
Fairfax’s Matt Wade makes similar arguments:
The census is the only way to get precise information about how many people there are in each part of Australia, what they do, and how they live.
That information is fundamental to our democracy. The census is used by the Australian Electoral Commission to come up with fair electoral boundaries…
The census is crucial for the planning, administration and policy formation of federal, state and local governments. It’s especially important for the fair distribution of federal funds across the nation… [including] the allocation of around $45 billion worth of GST funding to the states and territories…
But it’s not just a tool for governments. Many businesses rely on census data to shape their planning. A large number of non-government organisations, academics and social researchers also draw heavily on the census.
Sadly, we risk becoming less informed during what is likely to be the greatest structural adjustment affecting the Australian economy since the early-1990s recession. All for what amounts to a very modest amount of savings.
Seriously, $400 million (at least) for metadata retention is no problem but we can’t afford census data?
