Daily LNG price update (Gorgon’s bite)

Sunday 18 January 2015

Oil caught a break on Friday night after the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut it production forecasts for 2015:

Macroeconomic weakness continues to restrain global oil demand growth, the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for January told subscribers, with fourth quarter 2014 deliveries estimated just 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) above year-earlier levels. Despite lower prices, with Brent crude futures near a six-year low, demand growth is forecast to accelerate only 0.9 mb/d in 2015, unchanged from the outlook in the December report.

The oil selloff has cut expectations of 2015 non-OPEC supply growth by 350 000 barrels per day (350 kb/d) since last month, to 950 kb/d. Effects on North American supply are so far limited to 95 kb/d and 80 kb/d to the Canadian and US forecasts, respectively. Projections are cut by 175 kb/d for Colombia and 30 kb/d for Russia.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.